space mega trends key trends and implications to 2030 and beyond
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Space Mega Trends Key Trends and Implications to 2030 and Beyond
Space Mega Trends
Key Trends and Implications to 2030 and Beyond
2
Contents
Trend Trend
1 Augmented Satellite Based Navigation Systems
2 High Throughput Satellite Communication Services
3 Space Tourism/Commercial Spaceflight
4 Small-Satellite Clusters Replacing Large Satellites
5 Satellites in Commercial Aviation
6 3D Printing in Space Applications
7 Reusable Launch Vehicles for Cost-Efficient Space Logistics
8 All-Electric Propulsion Systems for Satellites
9 Commercial Satellite Imagery Based Services
10 Robotic Servicing Technologies for Space Applications
3
1 Augmented Satellite Based Navigation Systems
The need for geo spatial positioning and tracking from commercial/civil sector is driving the
growth of augmented satellite-based navigational services market that tends to provide
positioning and tracking capability to civilian consumers. There will be a growth in demand
for tracking devices and global/regional maps in the commercial sector.
ERROR
CORRECTION
• Multi-constellation
GNSS receivers
• Integrated regional
GNSS and SBAS
networks
Capabilities • Accurate navigation service
• All-weather uninterrupted
coverage
• Horizontal and vertical
guidance
Downstream applications • Guided landing/take-off
procedures
• En route navigation
• Local consumer navigation
• Fleet tracking & management
Impacting technologies • Geo-stationary satellites
• Differential correction
• Stereographical navigation
• Doppler shift navigation
Personal navigation • More portable devices
• Increase in
Smartphone &
wearable applications
Aviation • Growth in GNSS-
based airport
infrastructure
• Enhanced ground-
based augmentation
systems
Commercial
navigation • More vehicle-mounted
devices
• Increase in GNSS-
based fleet-
management
applications
Future Trend • Global coverage through
multiple, interoperable,
regional augmented
satellite-based
navigational systems
• Large scale
commercialization of
SBAS networks
Service Catalog • Open Service
• Public Regulated
• Commercial
• Search & Rescue
Evolution of regulations
for commercial
application of GNSS-
based navigational
technology/procedures
Global GNSS devices
market to reach 7 billion
installed units and $478
billion in revenue by 2022
4
2 High Throughput Satellite Communication
Services The High-Throughput Satellite Market is fast growing with multiple government and
commercial satellites currently being launched. This is resulting in high data-rate satellite
transmission capability which in turn is creating opportunities for enhanced commercial and
military broadcast services.
Benefits • Low cost high throughput
satellite connectivity
• Location-specific
connectivity options
• Tailored regional service
offerings
• Use existing hardware
(service providers)
Impacting Technologies • Multiple spot-beam
• Dedicated and shared gateway
beams
• Large scale frequency reuse
• Closed and Open networks
• Hub infrastructure for each
spot
• Terrestrial fiber-optic links
between hubs
• Laser space transmission
• Increasing need for
high throughput
satellite connectivity
• Migration to higher
frequency bandwidth
• Expansion of ground
infra structure
• Growing supply of
high throughput
satellite spectrum
Applications • HDTV/UHDTV
broadcasting
• Faster broadband internet
• Enhanced military ISR
imagery streaming
• Military and civil high
volume data-transfer
• High number of
service providers
• Increased diversity in
service offerings
• Increased number of
internet users
• Enhanced C4ISR
networks
• Reduced cost of
satellite services
Widened broadband
internet access
Evolved military satcom
market
Enhanced commercial
broadcast services
2014
2018
2024
5
3 Space Tourism: Commercial Spaceflight
A very unique commercial aerospace business model evolving with the objective of
providing sub-orbital human spaceflight service to civilian customers. This business,
categorically titled ‘Commercial Spaceline’ marks the birth of a new industry in the
commercial aerospace domain.
SpaceX Over $4 billion
worth contracted
launches scheduled
as of Oct, 2013
Virgin Galactic Over 500 tourists
deposited $70
million and over
7400 tourists
expressed interest
(Aug, 2012)
Key
Technologies • Reusable launch
vehicle (repair)
• Hybrid
propulsion
Air/Base
launched vehicle
Key Progress • Regulator’s
approval for
Spaceport
construction and
launch
operations (FAA)
Key Segments • Institutions:
Spaceflight
(manned/unman
ned)
• Tourists: Sub-
orbital
spaceflight
Key Challenges • Regulatory
restrictions
(export control)
• High operational
costs and long
time-frames
Future Drivers • Economic viability
of business model
• Issue-free
operations
• Frequency of sub-
orbital
spaceflights
• Scheduled sub-
orbital manned
spaceflight
operations
• Expansion into
other regions
globally
• International
technology
transfer
• Increase in joint
venture business
models for
expanded services
at cheaper prices
• Improved reusable
spacecraft
refurnishing
methods
• Established
Commercial
Spaceline
industry with
multiple private
operators
• Diverse segments
of suborbital
spaceflight
services
Increased time of
sub-orbital flight
2014
2020
2024
2030
6
4 Small-Satellite Clusters Replacing Large Satellites
With low manufacturing cost and not mandating dedicated launch vehicles, small satellite
clusters are beginning to set the trend of realizing improved space capabilities also enabling
penetration into densely populated orbital space.
2030 Formation flying and fractionated
satellite architecture: navigation
and formation control, modularity
and open-architecture for expansion
of existing clusters
Inter-satellite
connectivity:
distributed processing,
advanced data routing
protocols, faster relay,
high data rate
Reconfigurable on-
board electronics:
post-launch system
upgrade capability
(software)
Micropropulsion systems:
MEMS-based miniaturized
propulsion systems, precise
attitude control for formation
Small-satellite launch capability:
dedicated launch vehicles,
secondary payload adapters
Small-Satellite clusters delivering complex-
higher capability multi-missions at low cost
Multi-point imagery = Advanced ISR /
Cartographic Imagery / Digital Maps
Reduced financial risk: Low cost satellite missions
delivering enhanced mission capabilities across
extendable mission life .
Improved capabilities: Reduced time-Improved
quality data gathering (multi-point imaging), low-light
imaging, system reliability (through redundancy)
Multi-Mission Satellites: Modular and flexible
architecture generating multi-mission opportunities.
Increasing adoption: Enhanced functionalities and
new applications at an ‘affordable’ cost to create new
genre of satellite owners- both Military & Commercial
Future
Apps
Be
nefits
Timed multi-point data gathering =
Advanced EO / Remote sensing
Stand-Alone / Integrated Communication
7
5 Satellites in Commercial Aviation
There is an increasing need for satellite connectivity in commercial aviation owing to the
operational need for seamless connectivity. Airlines are implementing satcom in their flight
operations to track and communicate with their aircraft when they are out of reach for line-
of-sight radio infrastructure. The satcom equipment and service market are rapidly growing.
Airline
Operations
Management
On-Board
Connectivity
Services
Air Traffic
Management
2015 2020 2025 2030
All commercial aircraft connected
via satellites
Satellite-based Air Traffic Management
Services Market
Automated Flight Operations
Dedicated Satellite Missions for
Commercial Aviation
Voice
Communication
Electronic
Flight Bag
Air-to-Ground
Data/ACARS
Wi-Fi
Mobile
Connectivity
Enhanced
cabin services
Guided Take-
Off/Landing
All-Weather
Positioning
En-route
navigation
Need for
seamless
connectivity
Need for
integrated
equipment
Satellite-based
ATM
procedures
Need for increased
spectrum space
Satellite-based
ATM Services
Enhanced
Flight
Operations
Airport GNSS
infrastructure
assessment
8
6 3D Printing in Space Applications
Additive manufacturing technology has turned out to be disruptive, enabling manufacturing
of complex geometries while allowing cost savings through reduced time and material
wastage. The space applications industry has begun using 3D printed parts for key
components but the customers are yet to realize the operational reliability of 3D-printing.
Growth of 3D printing
implementation in government
and private space programs
3D Printing Services
Market for Space
Applications catering to
government and
commercial customers
Evolution of selective laser sintering,
streolithography & polyjet technology,
growth of low-cost 3D printing technology
3D printing implementation in space programs
(small satellite structures and satellite propulsion
system parts) 2014
2020
2025
2030
Successful missions
involving 3D printed
hardware
Space-compatible
3D-printed COTS
product availability
Educating customer on
benefits of 3D printing
Realization of cost
effective 3D printing
technologies
Improved manned space
mission reliability In Space 3D
Printing for Manned
Missions
Need for reduced cost and
time savings
Migration to 3D printing
technology for customized
space application
manufacturing
Cheaper and reliable space
missions
3D printing replacing
conventional manufacturing
practices in specific space
application segments
9
7 Reusable Launch Vehicles for Cost-Efficient
Space Logistics The concept of reusable launch vehicles has gained prominence and the industry is looking
to realize partial and complete reusability of launch vehicles. The current focus is on the
reusability of the Rocket Booster Stage of launch vehicles. The cost of refurbishment and
operational reliability will determine the economic viability of the technology in the long run.
Key Cost Targets • Payloads up to 1800 kg:
$5 million per launch
• Payloads up to 45 kg: $1
million per launch
Driving Requirements
• Cost-effective orbital/sub-
orbital launch options
• Sustainable space
programs
• Standardized launch
operations
• Frequent launch
opportunities
Impacting Capabilities
• Vertical take-off/landing and
recovery
• Quicker launch vehicle repair
• Air-launched systems
(horizontal take-off/landing)
• Systems safety management
& system safety engineering
implementation
Current Focus
• Reusable booster stage
• Two-stage-to-orbit
capability
• Sub-orbital reusable
launch vehicles
• Compliance with
regulations
Opportunities
• Commercial Orbital
Transportation Services
(COTS) Program
• Demand for low earth orbit
small satellite launches
• Evolution of commercial sub-
orbital human spaceflight
Key Drivers • Launch costs
• Demonstrated reliable
reuse
• Operational feasibility
(cost and time wise)
Future Trend • Established reusable
launch vehicle market
• Cost-efficient launch
programs with
improved reliability
• Standardized launch
programs
• Long-term opportunities
for launch service
providers
Key Technologies • Restartable ignition
system for booster stage
• Throttleable rocket
engine
• Control system for
hypersonic re-entry
10
8 All-Electric Propulsion Systems for Satellites
Demand for longer mission time and reliable station-keeping capability are driving evolution
of All Electric Propulsion Systems for Satellites. Overcoming technical gaps such as the
low-thrust and subsequent orbit-transfer time delays along with industries ability to
commercialise the technology is essential for wider adoption of All Electric Satellites.
2020 2025 2030 2015
Higher thrust electric
propulsion essential to
create wider buy-in
Additional Payloads =
Higher RoI = Attractive
Investment = Demand
Miniaturisation?
Electric Propulsion size
limits Launch options
Commercialisation of
technology critical to
competitive positioning
Larger-Scale Electric
Propulsion Systems
drives Deep Space
Exploration missions
Higher Thrust Electric
Propulsion Systems reduce
orbit transfer time
Attitude Control Orbit Transfer Deep Space Exploration
Single Point Failure
Scenario
Low-Thrust
Orbit Transfer Time Delays
Delayed RoI
10 x Efficiency Gain
1/10 Mass
+50-70% Lifespan
Higher RoI
Electric Propulsion
Primarily used for
in-orbit station
keeping
ESA’s program
Elektra aimed at
developing a
full-electric
propulsion
telecom satellite NASA Mars
Mission
Commercialization of All
Electric Satellites leads to
new Space Participants
Boeing 702SP all-
electric propulsion
based satellites
launch
11
9 Commercial Satellite Imagery Based Services
The current satellite imagery services market has very few industry participants and is
facing issues such as high operational costs and reducing budgets. However, the regulatory
relaxation to sell high resolution satellite imagery data has opened the door for further
growth where new industry participants can enter and provide diverse on-demand services.
• On-Demand Real-Time earth
observation data services market for
the government and commercial
customers (Astrium GO-3S program)
• Data-driven disaster/climate
monitoring systems market
• Satellite imagery data through
diverse software platforms
• GIS-Data-Security Services market
• Increasing small-satellite earth
observation missions
• Regulatory relaxation for
commercial use of high
resolution satellite imagery
• Growth in online map services
for the consumer segment
• Electronic storage and web-
delivery methods
• Enhanced software-defined GIS
products and services
• Growth in imagery resellers and
analytics providers
• Interoperability between emerging
GIS software platforms
• Enhanced automated processing for
quick extraction of imagery data
Primary Bulk Satellite
Imagery Providers Imagery Resellers & Analytics Providers
Diverse Delivery Platforms
On demand/
Real-time
Data
Responsive
Decision
Making
New
Applications
New
Products Lower Costs New Users
12
Robotic Servicing Technologies for Space
Applications 10
The increasing need for extended satellite mission lives have created a need for in-orbit
repair/refuelling technologies which are currently evolving. These technologies will bring
dead satellites into operation through repair & refuelling missions. These are also expected
to help remove dead satellites from orbit to create sustainable space real estate.
Future • Dedicated in-orbit servicing satellite
missions • Sustainable space real-estate • Prolonged satellite mission lives • Increased return on investment from GEO
satellite missions
Driving Needs • Longer satellite missions • In-orbit repair & refueling options for
added mission reliability • Established in-orbit servicing satellite
market • Reduced human involvement in
servicing operations in space
Key Technologies • Dexterous robotics for space
applications • Autonomous rendezvous/docking
systems • Spacecraft-spacecraft propellant
transfer technology • Control systems for effective space
operations of in-orbit repair mechanisms
Key Drivers • Increased focus on space debris
mitigation and satellite de-orbiting methods
• Small-satellite missions for in-orbit inspection
• Reducing launch costs
Benefits • Repair/refuel option for over 400
GEO satellites providing key capabilities
• Reduced risk for humans in manned space missions
• Clearance of dead satellites from orbit
• Rescue of wrongly placed satellites • Enhanced space missions with
added robotic capabilities
13
Contact Us To Find Out More
Email:
enquiries@frost.com
Steven Webb
Vice President
Aerospace, Defence & Security
Direct: +44 (0) 207 915 7842
Email: steven.webb@frost.com
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