southern california may be due soon -- lessons from past notable earthquakes

THE LOS ANGELES BASIN IS AT THE LOS ANGELES BASIN IS AT HIGH RISK FROM EARTHQUAKESHIGH RISK FROM EARTHQUAKES

LESSONS FROM PAST LESSONS FROM PAST NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESNOTABLE EARTHQUAKES

PAST NOTABLE PAST NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIANORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA

JANUARY 17, 1994JANUARY 17, 1994

GOOD FORTUNE--- IT GOOD FORTUNE--- IT HAPPENED ON A HOLIDAYHAPPENED ON A HOLIDAY

EARTHQAKES ARE EARTHQAKES ARE DYNAMIC DYNAMIC LABORATORIESLABORATORIES FOR FOR

LEARNING AND CATALYSTS LEARNING AND CATALYSTS FOR FOR BUILDING CAPACITY BUILDING CAPACITY

FOR FOR DISASTER-INTELLIGENT DISASTER-INTELLIGENT & DISASTER-RESILIENT & DISASTER-RESILIENT

COMMUNITESCOMMUNITES

NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKE

NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKEEARTHQUAKE

4:31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 19944:31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 1994M 6.8M 6.8

57 DEATHS57 DEATHS

$50 BILLION LOSS$50 BILLION LOSSTRANSPORTATION AND UTILITY INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITY INFRASTRUCTURE

FAILURESFAILURES

4:31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 19944:31 AM ON JANUARY 17, 1994M 6.8M 6.8

57 DEATHS57 DEATHS

$50 BILLION LOSS$50 BILLION LOSSTRANSPORTATION AND UTILITY INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITY INFRASTRUCTURE

FAILURESFAILURES

OCCURRENCEOCCURRENCE

LOS ANGELESLOS ANGELES

Los Angeles is located in the Los Angeles is located in the Los Los Angeles Basin Angeles Basin where earthquakes where earthquakes have occurred many times on the have occurred many times on the well known San Andreas fault well known San Andreas fault system system andand SOMETIMES on SOMETIMES on unknown “blind thrust faults.” unknown “blind thrust faults.”

LOCATIONLOCATION

The epicenter was located in The epicenter was located in Northridge, a suburb of Los Northridge, a suburb of Los Angeles.Angeles.

Southern California is prone to Southern California is prone to earthquakes because of its location earthquakes because of its location near the boundary between two major near the boundary between two major tectonic plates: North America and tectonic plates: North America and PacificPacific. . Much, but not all, of the stress Much, but not all, of the stress release happens on the release happens on the San Andreas San Andreas fault.fault.

NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKENORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE SLIP ON A SLIP ON A “BLIND” “BLIND”

THRUST FAULTTHRUST FAULT (I.E., (I.E., DID NOT BREAK THE DID NOT BREAK THE SURFACE) GEN-SURFACE) GEN-ERATED AN ERATED AN ALMOST ALMOST PERFECT “BULLS PERFECT “BULLS EYE” EARTHQUAKE EYE” EARTHQUAKE IN A MAJOR IN A MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAMETROPOLITAN AREA

SLIP ON A SLIP ON A “BLIND” “BLIND” THRUST FAULTTHRUST FAULT (I.E., (I.E., DID NOT BREAK THE DID NOT BREAK THE SURFACE) GEN-SURFACE) GEN-ERATED AN ERATED AN ALMOST ALMOST PERFECT “BULLS PERFECT “BULLS EYE” EARTHQUAKE EYE” EARTHQUAKE IN A MAJOR IN A MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAMETROPOLITAN AREA

FAULT SYSTEM: FAULT SYSTEM: NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKENORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES

LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

IMPACTS IMPACTS

BUILDINGSBUILDINGS

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

PREPAREDNESS PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR PLANNING FOR THE THE INEVITABLE INEVITABLE STRONG GROUND STRONG GROUND MOTION MOTION IS IS ESSENTIAL FOR ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.RESILIENCE.

GROUND SHAKING WESTERN GROUND SHAKING WESTERN USAUSA

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

PROTECTION OF PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCERESILIENCE..

LOS ANGELES REGIONLOS ANGELES REGION

Buildings, transportation Buildings, transportation infrastructure, utility corridors, infrastructure, utility corridors, and parking structures and parking structures constructed in accordance with constructed in accordance with various codes/standardsvarious codes/standards FAILED.FAILED.

COLLAPSE OF A CONCRETE COLLAPSE OF A CONCRETE FRAME BUILDINGFRAME BUILDING

NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKENORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE THE BUILDING STOCK THE BUILDING STOCK

AND INFRA-AND INFRA-STRUCTURE OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOS ANGELES LOS ANGELES REGION WERE REGION WERE EXPOSED TO EXPOSED TO VERY VERY STRONG GROUND STRONG GROUND SHAKINGSHAKING REACHING REACHING PGA > 1 G AT SOME PGA > 1 G AT SOME LOCATIONSLOCATIONS

THE BUILDING STOCK THE BUILDING STOCK AND INFRA-AND INFRA-STRUCTURE OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOS ANGELES LOS ANGELES REGION WERE REGION WERE EXPOSED TO EXPOSED TO VERY VERY STRONG GROUND STRONG GROUND SHAKINGSHAKING REACHING REACHING PGA > 1 G AT SOME PGA > 1 G AT SOME LOCATIONSLOCATIONS

A PROTECTION NIGHTMAREA PROTECTION NIGHTMAREA PROTECTION NIGHTMAREA PROTECTION NIGHTMARE

DAMAGE TO BRIDGEDAMAGE TO BRIDGE

THE UTILITY CORRIDOR: A THE UTILITY CORRIDOR: A PROTECTION NIGHTMAREPROTECTION NIGHTMARETHE UTILITY CORRIDOR: A THE UTILITY CORRIDOR: A PROTECTION NIGHTMAREPROTECTION NIGHTMARE

DISRUPTION OF DISRUPTION OF UTILITY SERVICES, UTILITY SERVICES, A FIRE, AND AN A FIRE, AND AN EXPLOSION EXPLOSION QUICKLY CREATED QUICKLY CREATED THE CONDITIONS THE CONDITIONS FOR A DISASTER FOR A DISASTER ..

NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKENORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKENORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKENORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE FLAWS WERE FLAWS WERE

FOUND IN THE FOUND IN THE WELDED WELDED CONNECTIONSCONNECTIONS OF MANY OF MANY MOMENT-MOMENT-RESISTING RESISTING STEEL FRAME STEEL FRAME BUILDINGS BUILDINGS

PROBABILISTIC MAPS PROBABILISTIC MAPS OF OF PEAK PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION (PGA) GROUND ACCELERATION (PGA) AND AND SPECTRAL ACCELERATION SPECTRAL ACCELERATION (SA) (SA) ARE BASIC TOOLS USED IN ARE BASIC TOOLS USED IN

BUILDING BUILDING CODESCODES AND AND INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE STANDARDSSTANDARDS

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

PREPAREDNESS PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR PLANNING FOR THE THE INEVITABLE INEVITABLE GROUND FAILURE GROUND FAILURE IS ESSENTIAL IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCERESILIENCE..

LIQUEFACTION IN A UTILITY LIQUEFACTION IN A UTILITY CORRIDORCORRIDOR

LIQUEFACTION IN A UTILITY LIQUEFACTION IN A UTILITY CORRIDORCORRIDOR

COLLAPSE OF UNIVERSITY COLLAPSE OF UNIVERSITY PARKING STRUCTUREPARKING STRUCTURE

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

CAPACITY FOR CAPACITY FOR EMERGENCY EMERGENCY RESPONSE RESPONSE IS IS ESSENTIAL FOR ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY COMMUNITY RESILIENCERESILIENCE..

DEALING WITH FIRE, AN EXPLOSION, DEALING WITH FIRE, AN EXPLOSION, DEATHS, AND LOSS OF FUNCTIONDEATHS, AND LOSS OF FUNCTION

DEALING WITH FIRE, AN EXPLOSION, DEALING WITH FIRE, AN EXPLOSION, DEATHS, AND LOSS OF FUNCTIONDEATHS, AND LOSS OF FUNCTION

LESSONS LEARNED FOR LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCEDISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL NOTABLE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

CAPACITY FOR CAPACITY FOR RECOVERY AND RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTIONRECONSTRUCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY COMMUNITY RESILIENCERESILIENCE..

EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A TOOL FOR RECOVERYTOOL FOR RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE WAS A TOOL FOR RECOVERYTOOL FOR RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE INSURANCE SPREAD THE RISK SPREAD THE RISK AND SPEEDED UP AND SPEEDED UP RECOVERY BY RECOVERY BY FACILITATING THE FACILITATING THE “RESTORATION TO “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”NORMAL”

EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE INSURANCE SPREAD THE RISK SPREAD THE RISK AND SPEEDED UP AND SPEEDED UP RECOVERY BY RECOVERY BY FACILITATING THE FACILITATING THE “RESTORATION TO “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”NORMAL”

IT TAKES TIME TO CORRECT IT TAKES TIME TO CORRECT FLAWS IN STEEL BUILDINGSFLAWS IN STEEL BUILDINGSIT TAKES TIME TO CORRECT IT TAKES TIME TO CORRECT FLAWS IN STEEL BUILDINGSFLAWS IN STEEL BUILDINGS

IT TAKES TIME TO RESTORE IT TAKES TIME TO RESTORE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATIONREGIONAL TRANSPORTATIONIT TAKES TIME TO RESTORE IT TAKES TIME TO RESTORE

REGIONAL TRANSPORTATIONREGIONAL TRANSPORTATION

PLANNING FOR THE FUTUREPLANNING FOR THE FUTURE

A NEW GENERATION OF A NEW GENERATION OF POLICIES AND POLICIES AND PROFESSIONAL PRACTICES WAS PROFESSIONAL PRACTICES WAS DEVELOPED DEVELOPED FOR SITING, DESIGN, AND FOR SITING, DESIGN, AND CONSTRUCTION IN CALIFORNIA AND OTHER CONSTRUCTION IN CALIFORNIA AND OTHER EARTHQUAKE PRONE REGIONS OF THE USA.EARTHQUAKE PRONE REGIONS OF THE USA.

PLANNING FOR THE FUTUREPLANNING FOR THE FUTURE

THE INFORMATION, KNOWLEDGE THE INFORMATION, KNOWLEDGE BASE AND PROCESS NEEDED FOR BASE AND PROCESS NEEDED FOR DEVELOPING SCENARIOS DEVELOPING SCENARIOS FOR FOR FUTURE EARTHQUAKE DISASTER FUTURE EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING WERE CREATED. PLANNING WERE CREATED.

SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE FOR SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIASOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONE” AND OTHERS INEVITABLE “BIG ONE” AND OTHERS RECURRECUR

Source: US Geological SurveySource: US Geological Survey

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREAAREA

QUAKE SHAKEOUT QUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO SCENARIO

The goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to The goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California , and earthquake in southern California , and in so doing, enable end users to in so doing, enable end users to identify identify what they can change nowwhat they can change now——beforebefore the earthquake the earthquake—to avoid —to avoid catastrophic impact catastrophic impact afterafter the inevitable the inevitable earthquake occurs.earthquake occurs.

GROUND SHAKING: 60 % G GROUND SHAKING: 60 % G SECONDS AFTER FAULT SECONDS AFTER FAULT RUPTURERUPTURE

THE M 7.8 SCENARIO QUAKETHE M 7.8 SCENARIO QUAKE

• The magnitude 7.8 SCENARIO The magnitude 7.8 SCENARIO earthquake will cause about earthquake will cause about 1800 1800 deaths and deaths and $213 billion $213 billion of economic of economic losses. losses. • These numbers are as low as they are These numbers are as low as they are because of because of aggressive retrofitting aggressive retrofitting programs since 1994 that have programs since 1994 that have increased the seismic resistance increased the seismic resistance of of buildings, highways and lifelines, and buildings, highways and lifelines, and added economic resiliency. added economic resiliency.

THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUT THE M 7.8 SHAKEOUT QUAKEQUAKE

• The estimates of about 1800 The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of deaths and $213 billion of economic losses are as large economic losses are as large as they are because as they are because much much more retrofitting could still be more retrofitting could still be done. done.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTSSUMMARY OF IMPACTS

57 DEATHS57 DEATHS 9,000 INJURIES9,000 INJURIES HUNDREDS OF APARTMENT HUNDREDS OF APARTMENT

BUILDINGS DAMAGEDBUILDINGS DAMAGED THOUSANDS OF COMMERCIAL THOUSANDS OF COMMERCIAL

BUILDINGS DAMAGED WHEN WELDS BUILDINGS DAMAGED WHEN WELDS FAILED IN STEEL-FRAME BUILDINGSFAILED IN STEEL-FRAME BUILDINGS

PARKING FACILITIES COLLAPSEDPARKING FACILITIES COLLAPSED

SUMMARY OF IMPACTSSUMMARY OF IMPACTS

A RELATIVELY SMALL NUMBER OF A RELATIVELY SMALL NUMBER OF DEATHS, PARTLY DUE TO DEATHS, PARTLY DUE TO HOLIDAYHOLIDAY

OVER OVER $50 BILLION DAMAGE $50 BILLION DAMAGE WITH MORE WITH MORE THAN $5 BILLION IN EARTHQUAKE THAN $5 BILLION IN EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE INDEMNIFICATION INSURANCE INDEMNIFICATION

UTILITY CORRIDOR FAILEDUTILITY CORRIDOR FAILED TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS FAILED TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS FAILED

AGAINAGAIN

PRIMARY SOURCES OF PRIMARY SOURCES OF INFORMATION ON THE LOMA INFORMATION ON THE LOMA

PRIETA EARTHQUAKE ARE: PRIETA EARTHQUAKE ARE: 1) 1) The US Geological Survey, 2) The US Geological Survey, 2) The California Geological Survey, The California Geological Survey,

and 3) the Earthquake Engineering and 3) the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute Research Institute