south bay suntans application presented to the cfwg june 10, 2009

South Bay SUNTANS Application

Presented to the CFWG

June 10, 2009

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SF Bay SUNTANS in the news …

• http://suntans.stanford.edu/

Proposal

• Goal:– To investigate the exchange of material

between margins and Bay

• Approach:– Apply the SUNTANS model to a specific

South Bay margin(s) and tributaries– Use tracer experiments to quantify

exchange rates

Example: Santa Monica Bay

• Used nested grids to allow for higher resolution in areas of interest

Example: Santa Monica Bay

• Used Lagrangian particles as tracers of exchange processes

Example: Santa Monica Bay• Calibrated physical

model to long-term observations

Example: Santa Monica Bay

• Identified the dominant modes of water movement

Example: Santa Monica Bay• Related the dominant modes of water movement

to theoretical mixing models• Estimated dispersion rates

Example: Santa Monica Bay

• Examined the behavior of “particles” under various modes of water movement

Example: Santa Monica Bay

• Estimated monthly-mean residence times and escape times

Example: Santa Monica Bay• Examined wastewater plume dynamics

QuickTime™ and aYUV420 codec decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Proposal

• Goal:– To investigate the exchange of material

between margins and Bay

• Approach:– Apply the SUNTANS model to a specific

South Bay margin(s) and tributaries– Use tracer experiments to quantify

exchange rates

Workflow & Budget

• Project is a collaboration between– SFEI– Ed Gross (Consultant)– Mark Stacey & Rusty Holleman (UCB)

• Total Propsed Budget $100k– Approximately 20% SFEI, 20% Ed Gross,

60% UCB

Deliverables

• Working hydrodynamic model of South Bay (actually includes all Bay at coarse resolution)

– Need to work out exactly what this means… do we want the code? Future access to code? Stored physical results?

• Working (offline) particle tracking model

• Technical report on methods and preliminary results– Probabilistic maps of tributary plumes– Estimates of exchange rates

Benefits to RMP

• Major step towards understanding exchange processes

• A “model” that we can use for scenario testing • Strategic “seat at the table”

– Can guide future specific SUNTANS applications– SFEI/RMP as clearing house for environmental

models

Fieldwork Proposal ($50k)

• Premise: – Proposed modeling approach will require additional data for

calibration/validation.

• What are the data needs?– Will be identified as part of the Margins Conceptual Model– Some thoughts:

• Real-time monitoring of fluxes at tributary outlets

• Real-time monitoring of fluxes at bridges (ex. Dumbarton)

• Tracer studies to estimate (episodic) exchange rates

• Update bathymetry

• Sediment characterization studies to estimate plume extent and transport pathways

Fieldwork Proposal ($50k)

• Possible approach

– Wait for results of conceptual model and preliminary SUNTANS results

– Develop list of information needs– Prioritize list based on scienific importance, potential for

successfully filling information gaps, stakeholder needs, etc.– Fully scope top few studies– Make final decision on which study or studies to implement