some findings from access · northern lights economics - arctic univ. dec. 7. 2017 access-arctic...

Some findings from ACCESS

Arne Eide (UiT) & John R. Isaksen

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

ACCESS - Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society

• CC impacts ecosystems and human activity in the Arctic

• Fisheries and aquaculture is of great importance in the Arctic

– Not only economically, but historically, societal, employment, presence, trade, …

www.access-eu.org

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Arctic

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Natural Variations vs Climate Change

• We know a lot about fish – but still lack knowledge

• The Barents Sea: – An ecosystem of great importance and with huge fluctuations

– Fluctuating recruitment

– Unpredictable growth variation

– Variation in spatial distribution

• Key species: Capelin – Herring – Cod– Ecosystem based approach

• Mackerel all over the North Atlantic – stride between coastal states– Observed in Spitzbergen in the 1920s (Thor Iversen)

• Climate change adds an extra twist to existing variation

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Some examples of natural variation

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Capelin quotas

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Tasks in ACCESS WP 3

1. Quantifying economic effects of climate change (CC) in fisheries – Nofima

2. Aquaculture in the Arctic – implications from CC – Beijer/Nofima

3. CC effects on capture fisheries’ factor and product markets – Nofima

4. Socio-economic impact of CC on fisheries sector – University of Lapland

5. Eliciting behavioural response from user groups and stakeholders – Beijer

6. Marine mammals in the Arctic – Polytechnical University of Catalonia

7. Indicators for a sustainable Arctic fisheries development – All

Outcomes

Ambio (Special Issue) Oct. 2017:

• Troell et al.: “Seafood from a changing Arctic”

• Eide: “Climate change, fisheries management and fishing aptitude affecting spatial and temporal distributions of the Barents Sea cod fishery”

• Edwards & Evans: “The challenges of marine spatial planning in the Arctic”

…

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Model integration – NEA cod distribution

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Physical variables

Core factors:

• Ocean depth

• Water temperature

• Food availability(proxy: zooplankton

biomasses)

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

SinMod: Ocean temperatures (IPCC’s A1B downscaled)

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

SinMod: Zooplankton densities

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

FishExChange:

Stock distribution

Catches 2004-2009

Stock surveys 2004-2010

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Monthly distribution map based on various sources

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Combined: Dynamic distribution

charts ( - centre of gravity)- monthly centres of gravity

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Implementing stock migration pattern in the modelEstimated (blue) and modelled (red) centres of gravity of the spatial distribution of cod

Cellular automata migration rules

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Monthly centres of gravity for cod distributions

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Environmental carrying capacity for NEA cod

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Spatial distribution of cod catches

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Effects of changing fishing behaviour

Dendrogram plots of performance relations between small (S) and large (L) fishing vessels operating from four different

North-Norwegian homeports (Svolvær, Tromsø, Hammerfest and Vardø) for different values of the smartness-parameter s.

Clustering level 5 is shaded.

Dec. 7. 2017Northern Lights Economics - Arctic Univ.

Summing up

• Climate change effects may lead to increased distribution area (10-15%) and provide the cod stock with a slightly higher growth potential (about 10% increase)

• The monthly centres of gravity of the cod biomass does not seem to change

• Management decisions, technological development and market changes may all (alone or together) have a stronger impact on the economics of Barents sea fisheries than climate change will have

• As smartness increases fleet properties become more crucial for the overall fleet performance