solar activities and halloween storms ahmed hady astronomy department cairo university, egypt

Solar Activities and Halloween Storms

Ahmed Hady

Astronomy Department Cairo University, Egypt

Astronomy Department Cairo University, Egypt

Objectives

1-Historical study of the last twelve solar 1-Historical study of the last twelve solar cycles and its effects on Earth’s climatecycles and its effects on Earth’s climate

2- 2- Descriptive studies of the high Descriptive studies of the high energetic storms during the last three energetic storms during the last three solar cycles & its effects on earthsolar cycles & its effects on earth’’s s atmosphere, and October 2009, atmosphere, and October 2009, Halloween StormsHalloween Storms..

3- 3- Analytical studies Geomagnetic storms of Analytical studies Geomagnetic storms of the earth’s atmospherethe earth’s atmosphere

4 4 -The global Earth’s temperature variation -The global Earth’s temperature variation during the last two thousand years during the last two thousand years

Importance of the Sun for life on Earth has long been recognizedFrom the beginning of the life

In the ancient Egyptian civilization,

the solar disk has been proposed like divinity.

In the ancient Egyptian civilization,

the solar disk has been proposed like divinity.

Observation of the solar sunpots since more than 4 century

Galileo , Spring 1611

1673

Solar cycle ~11 yearsMigration of the spots frommidlatitudes to the equatorduring the sunspot cycleButterfly diagram

solar magnetic component - sunspot

Annual number of geomagnetic disturbance days with Ap (black area) vs. annual sunspot numbers (Black area). Courtesy

NOAA national Geophysical data center, Boulder CO

Relation between CME’s released during solar cycle 22, 23 & and the number of prominences during the same time

Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Update released May 8, 2009

The solar source region have strong magnetic field intensity and high speed to compress the earth’s magnetosphere.

Magnetic flux during the most disturbed days in the Peak and decline phases of cycle 23.

Start(Day/UT)

Maximum(Day/UT)

Proton Flux (pfu @ >10 MeV)

Year

19981998

Apr 20/1400Apr 21/12051,700

Sep 30/1520Oct 01/00251,200

20002000

Jul 14/1045Jul 15/123024,000

Nov 08/2350Nov 09/160014,800

20012001

Apr 02/2340Apr 03/07451110

Sep 24/1215Sep 25/223512,900

Oct 01/1145Oct 02/08102360

Nov 04/1705Nov 06/021531,700

Nov 22/2320Nov 24/055518,900

20022002

Apr 21/0225Apr 21/23202520

20032003

Oct 28/1215Oct 29/061529500

Nov 02/1105Nov 03/08151570

20042004

Jul 25/1855Jul 26/22502086

20052005

Jan 16/0210Jan 17/17505040

May 14/0525May 15/0240 3140

Sep 08/0215Sep 11/04251880

Halloween solar Storms

SoHo EIT X-Ray Flare (X 17.2/4B ) 28 October 2003

Movies of regions 10486

SoHo EIT X-Ray Flare (X28/3B) Nov 4, 2003

8 - Active Regions during Halloween storms

Solar disk before the region 10486 rotate behind the western Limb UT 19:29  on November 4, 2003, and X-28 flare during that time.

AR486 Before AR486 Before rotationrotation

Active Regions during

Halloween storms

by SoH0 EITOct. 22, 2003

ByEIT-171 A

Movies of regionsNo 10486CME in C2

DuringOct. 28

2003

The daily cumulative summation curve of 6-solar indices has been studied in order to investigate the possibilities to forecast the occurrence of such giant sudden storms.The used solar Indices are:

Sunspot Numbers Sunspot area

Optical Flares X-ray flares x-ray intensities x-ray Background flux

Daily cumulative Summation curves of x-ray intensities during 25 Oct. to 10 Nov , 2003 show a sudden increase on 26 October, allowing a possible prediction 2 - 3 days before the occurrence of the major eruptive flare/CME, which was released during Halloween storms

Daily cumulative Summation curves of x-rayintensities during 25 Oct. to 10 Nov , 2003 show a sudden increase on 26 October, allowing a possible prediction 2 - 3 days before the occurrence of the major eruptive flare/CME, which was released duringHalloween storms

Daily cumulate Summation curve of x-ray intensities during 17 days, starting 25 Oct. 2003

Intensity-time profile of Optical Flares (Fig5b) and GOES 12 x-ray Background flux (Fig4b) during the time period October 25, 2003 to November 19, 2003

Daily cumulative Summation curve of SESC Sunspot number and Sunspot area during the period 25 Oct. to 10 Nov. 2003

The temporal behavior of the six solar indices The temporal behavior of the six solar indices during the great solar proton events during the during the great solar proton events during the

solar cycle 23solar cycle 23

a)Sunspot NO. b)Sunspot area c)Optical Flares d) X-ray flares e)x-ray Int. f)x-ray Bg flux

(Continued)(Continued)(a)(a) (b)(b) (c)(c) (d)(d) ))ee(( ))ff((

(Continued)(Continued)

(a)(a) (b)(b) (c)(c) (d)(d) ))ee(( ))ff((

-During the decline phase of the last two solar cycles ( 22, and 23) high energetic eruptive flares were recorded. Some of them, are more than that occurred during the peaks of the cycles

-High Energetic proton flare, during the decline phase of the present cycle 23 ,during the Halloween storms of 2003 were occurred.

From cumulative cure analysis we can conclude that the release of the Eruptive flares at Halloween storms, 2003 are due to:

I - Large active region area (AR 10468) , II - Very Strong solar Magnetic field was appeared

during that time . III - High peak in geomagnetic disturbances

From the data analysisFrom the data analysisFrom the data analysisFrom the data analysis

ThereforeTherefore: :

-Solar particle events (SPEs) with very high fluxes of solar protons have correlation with geomagnetic storms.

-Geomagnetic Indices ( A and K indices ) increased with Increasing Solar Activities with time delay of 1-2 days.

Climate changes and Solar Activity in History

The C14 Measurement during the last 1000 years

Cosmic Ray changes and its comparison with solar cycles

Temperate changes over history

Global observations since the late 1950s show that the troposphere (up to about 10 km) has warmed at a slightly greater rate than the surface, while the stratosphere (about 10–30 km) has cooled markedly since 1979.

-A correlation between Geomagnetic Storms, solar Activity variabilities and Climate Change , DETECTED

-The Geomagnetic Indices have increased after the high Energetic Particles released, after 1-2 days from the

start of the Solar event.

http://iaga.cu.edu.egConvener: Ahmed Hady,

aahady@yahoo.com, aahady@cu.edu.eg

http://iaga.cu.edu.eg

Session 1: Slow Wind Streams, CMEs & 3D Structures of the Corona

and Heliosphere.Session 2: Fast Solar Wind & Plumes Session 3: The influence of solar wind turbulence on geomagnetic

activity and Earth’s AtmosphereSession 4: The role of solar wind heavy ions in the space

environment , Meteors and Meteoroids

Session 5: Modeling of the Solar Wind and Space Weather .Session 6: Helosheric plasma and Magnetic reconnections.Session 7: Space Science Researches & Education and Public

Outreach, The International Year of Astronomy (IYA2009).