soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · soybean...

Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation in Brasil.

Carlos Clemente Cerri

INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY

AGRICULTURAL AREA EXPANSION

Increase production in food, fiber and biofuel

Two complementary actions:

Soybean Corn

Sugarcane

Reforestment

5 0.5

7

4.1

Foreseen expansion in area Million ha for the next 10 years

18-20 Mha

How can the agricultural area be expanded in a sustainable way?

Others

0.5

Oilseeds

2.6

BIOFUELS

FOOD

FIBER

without further deforestation…

Expansion of agricultural area

Pasture 192 million ha

Agriculture 60 million ha

without further deforestation…

Expansion of agricultural area

Agriculture 60 million ha

Pasture 192 million ha

+ 20 million ha

- 20 million ha

Soybean Corn

Sugar-cane

Reforestment

5 0.5

7

4.1

Foreseen expansion in area (106 ha) for the next 10 years

18-20 Mha

Others

0.5

Oilseeds

2.6

4 million peopleUS $ 28 billion1.5% Brazil’s GDP

Ethanol demand in BrazilB

illio

n L

ite

rs

EthanolEPE 2012

Increase of ethanol production in Brazil

7 M ha

Under Development

Imediatly

Cerri 2014

2 options

Conversion from Annual Cropland to Sugar Cane

Conversion from Pasture to Sugar Cane

The effects of land-use-changeon soil carbon balance

have to be taken into account in calculating the CO2 savings attributed to bioenergy crops

How much is the Soil Carbon Debt and Payback Time due to these conversions?

How to produce sugar cane ethanol in a sustainable way and increase the fossil fuel offset?

Couple of questions:

How much is the Soil Carbon Debt and Payback Time due to these conversions?

How to produce sugar cane ethanol in a sustainable way and increase the fossil fuel offset?

Couple of questions:

Soil

Car

bo

n

Pasture

Soil Carbon stock balance after Land Use Change

Sugar CaneConversion

Soil Carbon

Years YearsWeeks

Storage

Debt

CO2

Debt

Crop residue decomposition

Soil

Car

bo

n

Pasture

Payback time

Sugar Cane

Conversion

Soil Carbon

Years Weeks

CO2

Debt

Ethanol

Offset fossil fuel

Payback time

0 1 2 3 4 ...

Years

“Time span that the conversion of a specific land intosugarcane would need to compensate emissions resultedfrom LUC considering the offset associated to thereplacement of fossil fuel by sugarcane ethanol. ”

Soil Carbon Debt and Payback Time CALCULATIONS

• Find comparison soil pairs

• Soil sampling

• Determination:

Soil organic carbon LECO - Analyzer

Soil bulk density

• Estimate of CO2 emitted (-) oraccumulated (+) in soils using Tier 2 approach (2006, IPCC).

Methodology

Region selected

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Places selected

Soil sampling strategy

Sugar Cane

0-100 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-100 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-100 cm

50 m

50 m

Pasture

0-100 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-100 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-100 cm

50 m

50 m

Soil depths:0-10, 10-20, 20-30 cm

0-10, 10-20, 20-30, 40-50, 70-80, 90-100 cm

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Soil pairs (side by side)

Conversion from Pasture to Sugar-Cane 70%

Conversion from Annual Cropland to Sugar-Cane 25%

Conversion from Cerrado to Sugar-Cane < 1%

Soil sampling

Soil sampling

Bulk density

Soil sampling + bulk density

Soil sampling + bulk density

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

cm

135 study sites = 75 pairs

Pasture to sugar cane 57

Annual cropland to sugar cane 13

Cerrado to sugar cane 05

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

≈6,000 Soil samples

Soil C stocks from sugar cane and

references

Soil type, soil texture, climate factors

Time span after LUC

land use change

Adopted managementburnt vs unburnt

Basic information of these 135 sites

Soil Carbon Debt and Payback Time

RESULTS

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Soil C storage

Soil C reduction

Payback time

Pasture-> Sugar cane0-30 cm

Response Ratio (Mg C ha-1) =Soil C stock Sugar CaneSoil C stock References

PastureAgricultureCerrado

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Soil C stock Sugar CaneSoil C stock References

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5R

esp

on

se R

ati

oPasture→Sugarcane

0-30 cm

57

16

Sites

41

5 20

34

23

57

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5Pasture→Sugarcane

0-100 cm

Resp

on

se R

ati

o

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

Re

spo

nse

Rat

io

Cropland→Sugarcane 0-100 cm

Sites

6

7

7

6

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5R

esp

on

se R

atio

Cropland→Sugarcane0-30 cm

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

13

13

0

Sites

5

1

4

5

Re

spo

nse

Rat

io

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5Native Vegetation →Sugarcane

0-30 cm

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5Native Vegetation →Sugarcane

0-100 cm

5

Re

spo

nse

Rat

io

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Soil C stocks from sugar cane and

references

Soil type, soil texture, climate factors

Time span after LUC

land use change

Adopted managementburnt vs unburnt

Linear mixed effect modeling approach

Land use change factor

Land use change factor

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Land use change factor

Conversion from Cerrado to Sugar Cane (< 1%)

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Carbon Debt (20 years)-77.8 Mg CO2 ha-1

0-30 cm

Payback time CALCULATION

Sugar Cane Ethanol Offset

9.8 Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1

Fargione et al. (2008)

Conversion from Cerrado to Sugar Cane (< 1%)

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Payback time = 8 years

Conversion from Pasture to Sugar Cane

Carbon Debt (20 years)-20 Mg CO2 ha-1 0-30 cm-32 Mg CO2 ha-1 0-100 cm

Conversion from Pasture to Sugar Cane

Payback time = 2 to 3 years

Conversion from Annual Cropland to Sugar Cane

Carbon storage (20 years)+36 Mg CO2 ha-1 0-30 cm+79 Mg CO2 ha-1 0-100 cm

Conversion from Annual Cropland to Sugar Cane

Payback time = ZERO

Soil

Car

bo

n

Years

Cerrado

Pasture

Agric landBio

mas

s C

arb

on

46 GgCO2

Conversion

3 M ha2000 - 2010

Soil

Car

bo

n

Sugar CaneConversion

Years YearsWeeks

3 GgCO2

Debt

Cerrado

Pasture

Agric landBio

mas

s C

arb

on

3 M ha2000 - 2010

46 GgCO2

Land useemissionfactor

Yields Net Ecosystem Emissions0.7 – 1.0 Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1

Offset9.8 Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1

ethanol

Is minimized by improved management and productivity on residual agriculture lands

Significant role in delivering

Provided that iLUC

Mello et al. (IN PRESS/ June 2014)Grant 2011/07105-7

How much is the Soil Carbon Debt and Payback Time due to these conversions?

How to produce sugar cane ethanol in a sustainable way and increase the fossil fuel offset?

Couple of questions:

CO2eq liter -1

Fossil Fuel

TransportExtraction

ProcessingCombustion

CO2

N2O CH

4

Biofuel

Emissions from field

TransportIndustry

Combustion

CO2

N2O CH

4

fossil

Offset

CO2eq liter -1

Fossil Fuel

TransportExtraction

ProcessingCombustion

CO2

N2O CH

4

Biofuel

Emissions from field

TransportIndustry

Combustion

CO2

N2O CH

4

fossil

Offset

TRANSPORT

C-CO2Photossynthesis

18 monthsPlant cane

CULTURAL MANAGEMENTS- pesticides- herbicides- vinasse

1st RATOON

12 months

12 months

2nd RATOON

12 months

3rd RATOON

HARVEST

12 months

4th RATOONREFORMATION

PLANTING

FertilizerLimeFilter cake

CO2

CH4

N2O

Filter cakeVinasse - distribution channel

BY-PRODUCTS

Bagasse

- boiler- co-generation

of electricpower

PRODUCTS CONSUME

CO2

CO2CO2 N2O

CO2

CH4N2OCO2

CH4

CO2CO2 N2O

CO2 eq

Soybean Corn

Sugarcane

Reforestment

5 0.5

7

4.1

Foreseen expansion in area (106 ha) for the next 10 years

18-20 Mha

What about livestock ??

Others

0.5

Oilseeds

2.6

Cerri 2014

212 M animals

196 Mha pasture

CC: 1.08 heads ha-1

225 M animals

192 Mha pasture

CC: 1.17 heads ha-1

244 M animals

185 Mha pasture

CC: 1.32 heads ha-1

+ 4 Mha + 11 Mha

2016 20212011Cerri 2014

244 M animals

178 Mha pasture

CC: 1.35 heads ha-1

+ 18 Mha

2021

244 M animals

185 Mha pasture

CC: 1.32 heads ha-1

+ 11 Mha

2021

+ 7 Mha

Sugar Cane expansion

Cerri 2014

2021+ 25 %

LivestockImproving efficiency

244 M animals

178 Mha pasture

CC: 1.35 heads ha-1

+ 18 Mha

2021

244 M animals

185 Mha pasture

CC: 1.32 heads ha-1

+ 11 Mha

2021

+ 7 Mha

Sugar Cane expansion

Cerri 2014

2021

+ 25 %

LivestockImproving efficiency

+ 15 % heads

- 10 % land area

“We must improve productivity in asustainable way”

Cerri 2014

Strategies to increase beef production

d

Feedlots

d

Genetic

improvement

d

Integration of

husbandry and

agriculture

mean stocking rate = 1.08 to 1.3heads per ha

Recuperation

and rehabilitation

of pastures

without further deforestation…

Expansion of sugarcane area

Pasture 192 million ha 7 million ha

Soil carbon debt = 20 Mg CO2 ha-1

Payback time = 2 to 3 years

Herd of 214 to 235 Million heads

Stock rate of 1.08 to 1.35 heads ha-1

Pasture rehabilitation

Genetic improvement of animalsIntegration husbandry-agricultureFeedlots

Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation in Brasil.

Carlos Clemente Cerri