soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · soybean...

68
Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation in Brasil. Carlos Clemente Cerri

Upload: others

Post on 20-Sep-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation in Brasil.

Carlos Clemente Cerri

Page 2: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY

AGRICULTURAL AREA EXPANSION

Increase production in food, fiber and biofuel

Two complementary actions:

Page 3: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soybean Corn

Sugarcane

Reforestment

5 0.5

7

4.1

Foreseen expansion in area Million ha for the next 10 years

18-20 Mha

How can the agricultural area be expanded in a sustainable way?

Others

0.5

Oilseeds

2.6

BIOFUELS

FOOD

FIBER

Page 4: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

without further deforestation…

Expansion of agricultural area

Pasture 192 million ha

Agriculture 60 million ha

Page 5: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

without further deforestation…

Expansion of agricultural area

Agriculture 60 million ha

Pasture 192 million ha

+ 20 million ha

- 20 million ha

Page 6: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soybean Corn

Sugar-cane

Reforestment

5 0.5

7

4.1

Foreseen expansion in area (106 ha) for the next 10 years

18-20 Mha

Others

0.5

Oilseeds

2.6

4 million peopleUS $ 28 billion1.5% Brazil’s GDP

Page 7: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Ethanol demand in BrazilB

illio

n L

ite

rs

EthanolEPE 2012

Page 8: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Increase of ethanol production in Brazil

7 M ha

Under Development

Imediatly

Cerri 2014

2 options

Page 11: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

The effects of land-use-changeon soil carbon balance

have to be taken into account in calculating the CO2 savings attributed to bioenergy crops

Page 12: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

How much is the Soil Carbon Debt and Payback Time due to these conversions?

How to produce sugar cane ethanol in a sustainable way and increase the fossil fuel offset?

Couple of questions:

Page 13: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

How much is the Soil Carbon Debt and Payback Time due to these conversions?

How to produce sugar cane ethanol in a sustainable way and increase the fossil fuel offset?

Couple of questions:

Page 16: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Payback time

0 1 2 3 4 ...

Years

“Time span that the conversion of a specific land intosugarcane would need to compensate emissions resultedfrom LUC considering the offset associated to thereplacement of fossil fuel by sugarcane ethanol. ”

Page 17: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soil Carbon Debt and Payback Time CALCULATIONS

Page 18: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

• Find comparison soil pairs

• Soil sampling

• Determination:

Soil organic carbon LECO - Analyzer

Soil bulk density

• Estimate of CO2 emitted (-) oraccumulated (+) in soils using Tier 2 approach (2006, IPCC).

Methodology

Page 19: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Region selected

Page 20: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Places selected

Page 21: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soil sampling strategy

Sugar Cane

0-100 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-100 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-100 cm

50 m

50 m

Pasture

0-100 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-100 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-30 cm

0-100 cm

50 m

50 m

Soil depths:0-10, 10-20, 20-30 cm

0-10, 10-20, 20-30, 40-50, 70-80, 90-100 cm

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Soil pairs (side by side)

Page 25: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soil sampling

Page 26: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soil sampling

Page 27: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Bulk density

Page 28: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soil sampling + bulk density

Page 29: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soil sampling + bulk density

Page 30: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

cm

Page 31: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

135 study sites = 75 pairs

Pasture to sugar cane 57

Annual cropland to sugar cane 13

Cerrado to sugar cane 05

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

≈6,000 Soil samples

Page 32: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soil C stocks from sugar cane and

references

Soil type, soil texture, climate factors

Time span after LUC

land use change

Adopted managementburnt vs unburnt

Basic information of these 135 sites

Page 33: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soil Carbon Debt and Payback Time

RESULTS

Page 34: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Soil C storage

Soil C reduction

Payback time

Pasture-> Sugar cane0-30 cm

Response Ratio (Mg C ha-1) =Soil C stock Sugar CaneSoil C stock References

PastureAgricultureCerrado

Page 35: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Soil C stock Sugar CaneSoil C stock References

Page 36: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5R

esp

on

se R

ati

oPasture→Sugarcane

0-30 cm

57

16

Sites

41

5 20

34

23

57

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5Pasture→Sugarcane

0-100 cm

Resp

on

se R

ati

o

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Page 37: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

Re

spo

nse

Rat

io

Cropland→Sugarcane 0-100 cm

Sites

6

7

7

6

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5R

esp

on

se R

atio

Cropland→Sugarcane0-30 cm

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

13

13

Page 38: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

0

Sites

5

1

4

5

Re

spo

nse

Rat

io

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5Native Vegetation →Sugarcane

0-30 cm

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5Native Vegetation →Sugarcane

0-100 cm

5

Re

spo

nse

Rat

io

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Page 39: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Page 40: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Soil C stocks from sugar cane and

references

Soil type, soil texture, climate factors

Time span after LUC

land use change

Adopted managementburnt vs unburnt

Linear mixed effect modeling approach

Land use change factor

Page 41: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Land use change factor

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Page 42: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Mello et al. (IN PRESS)

Land use change factor

Page 44: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Payback time CALCULATION

Page 45: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Sugar Cane Ethanol Offset

9.8 Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1

Fargione et al. (2008)

Page 52: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soil

Car

bo

n

Sugar CaneConversion

Years YearsWeeks

3 GgCO2

Debt

Cerrado

Pasture

Agric landBio

mas

s C

arb

on

3 M ha2000 - 2010

46 GgCO2

Land useemissionfactor

Yields Net Ecosystem Emissions0.7 – 1.0 Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1

Offset9.8 Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1

ethanol

Page 53: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Is minimized by improved management and productivity on residual agriculture lands

Significant role in delivering

Provided that iLUC

Page 55: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

How much is the Soil Carbon Debt and Payback Time due to these conversions?

How to produce sugar cane ethanol in a sustainable way and increase the fossil fuel offset?

Couple of questions:

Page 58: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

TRANSPORT

C-CO2Photossynthesis

18 monthsPlant cane

CULTURAL MANAGEMENTS- pesticides- herbicides- vinasse

1st RATOON

12 months

12 months

2nd RATOON

12 months

3rd RATOON

HARVEST

12 months

4th RATOONREFORMATION

PLANTING

FertilizerLimeFilter cake

CO2

CH4

N2O

Filter cakeVinasse - distribution channel

BY-PRODUCTS

Bagasse

- boiler- co-generation

of electricpower

PRODUCTS CONSUME

CO2

CO2CO2 N2O

CO2

CH4N2OCO2

CH4

CO2CO2 N2O

CO2 eq

Page 59: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soybean Corn

Sugarcane

Reforestment

5 0.5

7

4.1

Foreseen expansion in area (106 ha) for the next 10 years

18-20 Mha

What about livestock ??

Others

0.5

Oilseeds

2.6

Page 60: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Cerri 2014

Page 61: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

212 M animals

196 Mha pasture

CC: 1.08 heads ha-1

225 M animals

192 Mha pasture

CC: 1.17 heads ha-1

244 M animals

185 Mha pasture

CC: 1.32 heads ha-1

+ 4 Mha + 11 Mha

2016 20212011Cerri 2014

Page 62: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

244 M animals

178 Mha pasture

CC: 1.35 heads ha-1

+ 18 Mha

2021

244 M animals

185 Mha pasture

CC: 1.32 heads ha-1

+ 11 Mha

2021

+ 7 Mha

Sugar Cane expansion

Cerri 2014

2021+ 25 %

LivestockImproving efficiency

Page 63: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

244 M animals

178 Mha pasture

CC: 1.35 heads ha-1

+ 18 Mha

2021

244 M animals

185 Mha pasture

CC: 1.32 heads ha-1

+ 11 Mha

2021

+ 7 Mha

Sugar Cane expansion

Cerri 2014

2021

+ 25 %

LivestockImproving efficiency

+ 15 % heads

- 10 % land area

Page 64: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the
Page 68: Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation … · 2014. 5. 28. · Soybean Corn Sugarcane Reforestment 5 0.5 7 4.1 Foreseen expansion in area Millionha for the

Soil carbon stock and land use change for sugarcane cultivation in Brasil.

Carlos Clemente Cerri