socio-economic reference scenarios: introduction and scenario software (polestar and weap) thomas e....

Socio-economic reference scenarios:

Introduction and scenario software (PoleStar and

WEAP)Thomas E. Downing

Stockholm Environment Institute

Oxford

Overview

• Oh Scenario, oh scenario, what are you trying to tell us?

• Flexible scaling: PoleStar

• Water catchments: WEAP

• What is a benchmark study?

Scenarios: thinking about the future

• Why use a scenario?– Everyone else is doing it (or, we need to be

consistent)– My stakeholders told me to (or, they have

reference scenarios that are part of existing decision making)

– To gain insight into indeterminate futures (or, to examine the interactions between local resource management and global climate change)

Top down

• Lots of options:– SRES– World Water– Business and trade councils– Second World Food Council– WHO projections

• Useful if:– Coping is a boundary condition imposed by external

structures– Local decision makers use them– You don’t have time to do anything else

Bottom up

• Also, lots of options:– Local development plans– Local Agenda 21– Environment action plans– Participatory visions (e.g., WRI 2020 project)

• Useful if:– Coping is an emergent property of a multi-actor

system– Stakeholders are keen– You want to explore specific, local issues

Scenario software

• Integrated assessment models– Large, more feedbacks, aggregate regions

• Image, Targets

• Scenario accounting database– Varied scales, some consistency checks, user

input of key variables• Polestar, WEAP

• SEI Global Scenario Group• www.seib.org• System manual, tutorials, project reports

Polestar

Polestar Main Menu* Multiple sectors* Current vs scenario* Indicators tracking targets

•Regional disaggregation—world, country, regions…•Household types—urban, rural…•Sectoral detail—crops, energy sources…

WEAPWEAP

What is a benchmark study?

• International consistency with IPCC: choose one SRES benchmark

• International sectoral scenarios: Global Water Forum?

• National development planning: is there a reference scenario?

• DIY: build one or two with stakeholders– Seed with a general storyline– Stakeholders– Indicators– Consistency