slayter - swk 855 - election teach-in 2016

Election 2016: Teach-In

Elspeth Slayter, PhDAssociate ProfessorSchool of Social Work

Discussion items• Ground rules: Respectful discussion

• University policy on classroom discussions about election

• Examples of misleading statistics

• Tips for interpreting statistics

• Review of ballot questions

A story of two presidents

• Entered office during massive financial crisis• Economy losing 800,000 jobs per month• Created more than 5 million new jobs• Saved the jobs of teachers at risk of being laid off• Manufacturing industry roared back, adding 460,000

workers• Housing market started to rebound

– Home prices rising– Government helping millions of people avoid foreclosure.

• View 1:

A story of two presidents

• Entered office during massive financial crisis

• Created just 325,000 jobs over his term• More than 100,000 teachers were laid off• Manufacturing industry lost 635,000

positions– Home prices slumped to a nine-year low– 3 million homes went into foreclosure

• View 2:

President Obama: Two views• Both descriptions of his economic record are based on facts

• Yet neither is really true!

• We often use numbers to validate our intuitions and to measure the vagaries of life, yet we know that these numbers are often imprecise.

• Numbers can be abused, exploited or misconstrued!

• Numbers used as weapons dressed as incontrovertible facts, often pulled out of context, ignoring contrary evidence

President Obama: Two views• More than 100,000 teachers were laid off• Saved the jobs of teachers at risk of being

laid off– Relies on reporting “opposite” data

• Created just 325,000 jobs over his term• Created more than 5 million new jobs

– Relies on switching timeframes of reporting

President Obama: Two views(see handout)

Twisting the data: President Obama’s re-election campaign• Obama often said that the nation created 5.2 million jobs over the

last 31 months during first term

• Starting his count with the lowest low he can find - February 2010, more than a year after he took office– Includes only the private sector!

• Public sector lost 537,000 jobs over the same period

• And the number lacks context! During Obama’s first full year in office, the economy lost far more jobs - 4.3 million

• And that was on top of the 3.6 million jobs lost in 2008!

Your party lenses impact your view

• Scholars have shown that voters tend to view economy through prism of partisanship

• YouGov asked whether the unemployment rate was higher now than when Obama became president:

• Sixty-two percent of Republicans said it had increased a lot,

• 50 percent of Democrats said it had decreased a little.

• Rate was 7.8 percent in at start and 8.3 percent at end of term

Resource: Politifact.com

Resource: Politifact.com

• http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/

• http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/rulings/pants-fire/

Understanding polling data• Should you believe the results of every political

poll you see reported in the news?

• The short and simple answer is: “no”

• Check it out yourself!

• Polls may be conducted properly, but reported in misleading ways

What is a scientific poll?• Polls figure out opinions of

entire population without asking everyone

• Come up with a sample that represents the diversity of the entire population

• Chosen carefully, can’t over-represent any one group

Population

Sampling Frame

Sample

This is key #1 for critical consumption of data

Poll on support for presidential candidates:• Trump 42%

• Clinton 46%

• Margin of error +/- 3

Understanding margin of error

• Pollster is confident that if an election were held measuring the actual level of support across the entire population:

• Trump would receive anywhere between 39% and 45% of the vote – (42% – 3% and 42% + 3%)

• Clinton would receive anywhere between 43% and 49% – (46% – 3% and 46% + 3%).

Understanding margin of error

39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49%

Trump

Clinton

Understanding margin of error is key #2 for critical consumption of data!

Understanding margin of error

39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49%

Trump

ClintonToo close to tell!

Understanding margin of error

• Margin of error reported with poll results is typically what’s called “95% confidence interval” (RSL)

• If the pollster created and polled 100 different samples of the population, result would be within original reported margin of error in 95 out of these 100 cases

• Confidence interval will contain the true value 95% of the time

• But, confidence interval will not contain the true value in 1 out of every 20 polls!

Massachusetts Ballot Questions• Summary of ballot questions on Ballotpedia

• Question 1: Gambling: Allows the Gaming Commission to issue an additional slots license.

• Question 2: Farm Animals: Prohibits certain methods of farm animal containment (cage-free).

• Question 3: Marijuana: Legalizes recreational use for 21 and older.

• Question 4: Raise the Charter School Cap: Authorizes up to 12 new or expanded charter schools

• NASW’s stance on questions here

Question 1: Expanded Gaming Initiative:• Would allow the state Gaming Commission to

issue one additional category 2 license

• Would permit operation of a gaming establishment with no table games and not more than 1,250 slot machines

• Arguments against gambling: Concerns about addiction, doesn’t always improve economy

Question 1: Expanded Gaming Initiative:• A "yes" vote supports this proposal to

grant the Massachusetts Gaming Commission the ability to issue an additional slots license

• A "no" vote opposes this proposal, retaining the current law that allows three resort casinos and one slots parlor

Question 2: Increase Access to Public Charter Schools • Would allow the state to approve up to 12 new

charter schools or enrollment expansions in existing charter schools each year

• Could expand statewide charter school enrollment by up to 1% of the total statewide public school enrollment each year

• Arguments against charter schools: Takes $ away from public schools, not a level playing field

Question 2: Increase Access to Public Charter Schools • A "yes" vote supports this proposal to

authorize up to 12 new charter schools or enrollment expansions in existing charter schools by the state Board of Elementary and Secondary Education per year

• A "no" vote opposes this proposal to authorize up to 12 new charter schools or enrollment expansions in existing charter schools

Question 4: Marijuana Legalization

• Would permit the possession, use, distribution, and cultivation of marijuana in limited amounts by persons age 21 and older

• Would remove criminal penalties for such activities

• Provides for regulation of commerce in marijuana and for the taxation of proceeds from sales of these items

• Arguments against legalization: Gateway drug, could lead to legalization of harder drugs

Question 4: Marijuana Legalization

• A "yes" vote supports this proposal to legalize marijuana, but regulate it similar to alcoholic beverages

• A "no" vote opposes this proposal to legalize recreational marijuana, keeping only medical marijuana legal