simulation. a simulation takes a set of data and project it over time using a formula. sales for...

Simulation

Simulation

A simulation takes a set of data and project it over time using a formula.

Sales forCustomer A

Sales forCustomer B

TIME

Today Next Year Two Years

Sales forCustomer A

Sales forCustomer B

Sales forCustomer A

Sales forCustomer B

Formula

Main Concepts

There are 4 main components: Elements (the data)

› Products, Customers, …

Time› January, February, …

Formula› Sales February = Sales January + Sales January * 0.5)

Component = <Elements, Time, Formula>› Component Sales

› Component Expenses

› Component Results

Sales Expenses

Results

In order to simulate the Results it is necessary to simulate the Sales and the Expenses

Elements / Time / FormulaComponent

January February March …

Apple 1 1.5 …

Banana

Orange

TimeElements

Formula: Sales February = Sales January + Sales January * 0.5)

ComponentA simulation component is one of these tables where the values are calculated.

Parameters

In order to obtain more interesting formulas we will need parameters:

Sales February = Sales January + Sales January * growth index)

Multidimensional Parameters

The parameters must have the possibility of changing their values between products, months, etc. growth index (Apple) = 0.5 growth index (Banana) = 0.6

The use of combinations must be possible: growth index (Apple, January) = 0.55 growth index (Banana, January) = 0.65

Order of resolution

To solve the order of resolution the concept of scope must be introduced: Parameter: growth index

› 1 Find by: Product, Month› 2 Find by: Product

growth index (Apple) = 0.5 growth index (Apple, January) = 0.55

Life Cycle

1. Definition (Components, Formulas, etc.)

2. Execution (Store the results in database)

3. View Results (O3)

1

3 Database

CPU 2

Parameters maintenance

The parameters tables, and maintenance applications are automatically generated (if it is necessary) from the simulation definition.

Other Things

Metadata about Simulation Repository for such Metadata Component dependencies Versions of parameters “Escenario” (Spanish) O3 Analysis:

Graphs, Rules, Query, Scorecards, Reports, …

Web Access ….

Why not Excel ?

The first solution to this problem may be Excel, but …

Excel Problems

There is no Metadata or Repository Elements may be rows Time may be columns Formulas

› $A45 + F18 ??, what is that ?

Storage of results, Excel ? Parameters ? Excel dependencies ?

$A45 + F18 + ‘C:\My Documents\Accounts.xls!Banking…

Versioning, “Escenario” management ?