setting the world stage
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Setting the World Stage
2Lt Baldwin2Lt Carroll2Lt Devries2Lt Elliott2Lt Krug
2Lt Mealey2Lt Moore
2Lt Pochron2Lt Wright
Curriculum Area Manager—Warfare Studies/International Security Studies
What is our context? Three competing ideologies
Fascism Communism Democracy
If democracy remains as the predominant ideology,…
why do extremism, uncertainty, and violence still flourish?
Overview
Transnational Issues Globalization North vs South Global War on Terror (GWOT)
Religious and Ethnic Factors Religious Conflicts Ethnic Conflicts
What holds people together?
More than merely national titles Often based in cultural roots
Ethnicity Religion
How do each of these factors relate to conflict?
Ethnic ConflictsDefinitions:
Ethnic cleansing: Expulsion of an “undesirable” population from a given territory due to religion, ethnicity, political, strategic, or
ideological factors Genocide: Deliberate and systematic
destruction of a group of people because of their ethnicity, nationality, religion, or race
Intent differentiates ethnic cleansing (a desire to create ethnic homogeneity) from genocide (primary goal is the destruction of a certain
group of people).
Ethnic Cleansing and Genocide: Not Just a
Historical Problem
Religious Conflicts How has religion become the crucible for violence?
Belief of belonging to a chosen people Belief in aggressive/forced evangelism Religion as symbolic structure of conflict
Often, religion becomes the vehicle for the expression of deeply and widely held social aspirations
Religion can become the invoked ideology or “…social cleavage along which other struggles become mapped”
Example: Sunni-Shia conflict in Iraq—Political or religious struggle??
Connecting the Dots
What’s the connection between religion and conflict?
What’s the connection between ethnicity and conflict?
Both of these aspects of culture can unite and divide!
So, what happens when a culture is faced with outside influences?
GlobalizationDefinitions: “[The] integration of markets, nation-states, and
technologies…enabling individuals, corporations and nation-states to reach around the world farther, faster, deeper…than ever before…”
“The compression of the world and the intensification of consciousness of the world as a whole…concrete global interdependence...”
Bottom line: Globalization is a widening, deepening, and speeding up of interconnectedness in all aspects of
contemporary social life from the cultural to the criminal, the financial to the spiritual.
Dimensions of Globalization
Economic Environmental Cultural Political
Each can be analyzed separately, but they often have powerful interconnections
But is globalization good or bad?
Many view all globalization as pro-American Fear the dominance of Western ideas,
culture, institutions, and power
“Rogues, Renegades, and Outlaws” Blame United States for their
problems—easy way to divert attention from actual cause of problems
“Have-nots” Poverty makes them vulnerable to extremism
Globalization
Our adversaries see emerging global trends as threatening their traditions and way of life
Our adversaries believe they must derail the new emerging world order or be run over by it View United States as leader in shaping this Can’t match our political, economic, military,
and cultural power Resort to asymmetric approaches Benefit from “ungoverned spaces” (i.e.,
Western Pakistan, Indonesia, Africa, etc.)
Globalization
North vs South The Cold War/East-West conflict is gone,
replaced by a “North-South Estrangement” Economic rift between the “Haves” (North)
and the “Have-Nots” (South) widens Consider:
At least 80% of humanity live on less than $10/day
Almost half the world—over 3 billion people—live on less than $2.50/day
North vs South Consider:
More than 2 billion children in the world… Nearly half live in poverty, and most lack adequate shelter, potable water, and health services
Global poverty trends improving, but sub-Saharan Africa poverty levels are rising
The horrors of extreme poverty lead to hopelessness, which fuels extremism—and often, extremism breeds terrorism.
“Those who study jihad will understand why Islam wants to conquer the whole world. All the countries conquered by Islam, or to be conquered in the future, will be marked for everlasting salvation. Islam says: Kill all the unbelievers just as they would kill you all!” -- Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, 1942
Militant extremism isn’t new…
“[The defense of the homeland]…is a means of establishing the Divine authority within it so that it becomes the headquarters for the movement of Islam, which is then to be carried throughout the earth to the whole of mankind, as the object of this religion is all humanity and its sphere of action is the whole earth.” -- Sayyid Qutb, 1955
Global War on Terror
GWOT - Who is the enemy? Various Islamic extremist groups (al Qaeda being the greatest threat
to the United States) : No state; no uniform; lives among the population Believes religion is under attack and calls upon Muslims to
defend Islam Vast numbers—Even support by 1% of the worldwide Muslim
population would equate to about 13 million “enemies” While we view the enemy’s beliefs as dangerously misguided….
He is absolutely committed to his cause His religious ideology successfully attracts recruits He has a sufficient population base from which to protract the
conflict
How has the enemy become so dangerous?
Al Qaeda exemplifies the current manifestation of violent extremists
Al Zawahiri identified “three foundations” of Al Qaeda’s political ideology: Quran-based authority to govern Liberation of the homelands Liberation of the human being
This ideology is the foundation of Al Qaeda’s overall plan
Global War on Terror
An unprecedented ability to affect world events with global ramifications
Information Technology
Internet News Media Satellite TV Cell Phones
Weapons Proliferation
IEDs Suicide Bombers Missiles Nuclear Chemical/Biological
How Have Islamic Extremists Become So Dangerous?
Perceived Grievances
War in Iraq/Afghanistan Belief US is fighting a war against Islam Palestine/Israel issue Detainee Abuse
Populace willing to listen to and support their message
+Ability to transmit message more effectively
+Media attention given to mass effects of attacks
=
The equation for danger:
Al Qaeda’s Plan“We are seeking to incite the Islamic Nation to rise up to liberate its land and to conduct Jihad for the sake of God.”—Osama bin Laden
Objective 1: Expel American influence from Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula
Objective 2: Remove secular governments within the region Objective 3: Eliminate Israel and purge Jewish and Christian
influence Objective 4: Expand the Muslim empire to historical
significance
“Iraq would serve as the base of a new Islamic caliphate to extend throughout the Middle East, and which would threaten legitimate governments in Europe,
Africa, and Asia.” (Former SecDef Rumsfeld, 2005)
Implications of failure in this war are high If radical Islamist groups
are successful, then… US global leadership is
damaged and our enemy is emboldened
They have a resource-rich, safe haven
Failure to stop our enemy now means a larger conflict later, and at an enormous cost!
Global War on Terror
The Good NewsThe enemy has vulnerabilities:
Monolithic view of Islam underestimates cultural and religious differences
Majority of Muslims don’t believe in the Islamic extremism that groups like Al Qaeda profess
Repressive Taliban-like regimes unappealing to most Muslims
No military capability to expand their fight beyond terrorist tactics Understanding these vulnerabilities will put us in a better
position to win the Global War on Terror
Setting the World Stage
Questions?
Summary
Transnational Issues Globalization North vs South Global War on Terror (GWOT)
Religious and Ethnic Factors Religious Conflicts Ethnic Conflicts
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