resilience and social-ecological systems
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Welcome to Stockholm Resilience Centre���– Research for Governance of Social-Ecological Systems
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Resilience and Social-Ecological Systems
Linacre Lectures 2012
Carl Folke Beijer Institute Stockholm Resilience Centre Resilience Alliance
Carpenter et al. 2009. E&S
Carpenter et al. 2009. Ecology and Society
Does the Resilience Lens help provide new pictures, and surprising ones? Carpenter et al. 2009.
Ecology and Society
Reconnecting to the Biosphere
• Global change – new forms of interactions
• The resilience lens – persistence, adaptability, transformability
• Examples of transformations towards ecosystem stewardship and adaptive governance
A biosphere shaped by humanity
Scale increase – The Great Acceleration
Steffen et al. 2011. Ambio
“Welcome to the Anthropocene Humans have changed the way the world works. Now they have to change the way they think about it, too Humans have become a force of nature reshaping the planet on a geological scale—but at a far-faster-than-geological speed.”
May 28th, 2011
Reconnecting to the Biosphere
Folke et al. 2011. Ambio, Walker et al. 2009. Science
New forms of interactions and feedbacks
In the Anthropocene – opportunities and challenges
• dealing with a new type of “great acceleration” with many people moving from poverty to middleclass
• new global dynamics of connectivity, mobility, multiplications of linkages, speed of interactions and new combinations of social-ecological shocks and surprises move humanity into new terrain
• information technology, revolutions in microbiology and genetics and nano-technology are now taking off
florianotte.webseiten.cc/ alexhaensel/alex/pho...
> 50% live in urban environments
Many have lost contact with the Biosphere
Deuts
Deutsch et al. 2007. Global Environmental Change 17:238-249
Fishmeal imports to shrimp farming in Thailand
Globalisation, seafood production and marine ecosystem support
Forests 355-870 km2 Marine 135 km2
Wetlands 30-75 km2
Lakes 50 km2
Agriculture 10-30 km2
Agriculture 50 km2
Forests 20 km2
City 1 km2
Ecosystem support to cities
Folke et al. 1997. Ambio
Cities in the Baltic Sea drainage basin > 250 000 inhabitants
Reconnecting to the Biosphere • Integrated economies
and societies
• The living resource base as the foundation for the integration
• Strengthening the ability of people to enhance Earth’s life support capacity for societal development and human wellbeing
Transformation towards global sustainability
Seafood management in Maine, USA ���a success story
Common Pool Resource Stewardship and Climate Change
Lobster aquaculture - a gilded trap?
Rhode Island – 72% loss from shell disease
Loss of diversity - simplification
Steneck et al. 2011. Cons Biol
Thresholds and tipping points
Transitions and regime shifts
Scheffer et al. 2001. Nature Folke et al. 2004. AREER
Social-ecological interactions – ���global markets, land use, disturbance, ���
regional tipping and climate ������
the case of the Borneo rainforests, ���and the weather event El Niño
Turning El Niño from creator to destroyer
e.g. Curran et al. 200. Science; Page et al. 2002. Nature
1997 fires - 13–40% of the mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels
Lenton et al. PNAS 2008
The risk of Catastrophic Tipping Points
Aborigines arrive in Australia
Beginning of agriculture
Great European civilisations: Greek, Roman
Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle"
Young and Steffen. 2009. In: Chapin. Kofinas, Folke. (eds.). Principles of Ecosystem Stewardship. Springer
First migration of fully modern humans
out of Africa
Migrations of fully modern humans
from South Asia to Europe
A SAFE OPERATING SPACE FOR HUMANITY ���
to stay away from global tipping points
Rockström et al. 2009. Nature
Resilience thinking: Persistence, Adaptability and
Transformability • Resilience as persistence - capacity of a SES
to continually change and adapt yet remain within critical thresholds.
• Adaptability - part of SES resilience, the capacity to adjust responses to changing external drivers and internal processes and thereby allow for development along the current trajectory (stability domain).
• Transformability is the capacity to shift and cross thresholds into new development trajectories.
• interrelate across multiple scales. Folke et al. 2010. E&S
The Resilience of the Earth System
Persistence at the global level requires social-ecological transformations
Regime shifts • - understanding and describing regime shifts and
their implications •
- how to manage and govern resilience of current social-ecological regimes (adaptability, staying on the current pathway/trajectory)
• - how to break resilience of current social-ecological regimes to – revive an “old” regime – transform into a new regime
Adaptability Goulburn-Broken agriculture
• Economically lucrative - thriving • Dryland cropping, grazing, irrigated dairy
and fruit production, connecting the region to global markets - one quarter of the State of Victoria's export earnings
• Thresholds with possible knock-on effects between them
• widespread clearing of native vegetation and high levels of water use for irrigation have resulted in rising water tables, with severe salinization problems
• Breaking the agricultural path transform, requires changing deep values and creating a new identity
Walker et al. 2009. E&S
Turning crisis into opportunity in social-ecological systems
• Hurricane Mitch – Honduras • Storms and floods – Cayman Islands • Great Barrier Reef – Australia • Curbing illegal fishing – Southern Ocean
• Collaborative learning from crises/shocks and responding by building adaptive capacity for turning crisis into opportunity; changes in management practice and governance
e.g. McSweeney & Coomes 2011. PNAS; Tompkins et al. 2008 GEC; Olsson et al. 2008 PNAS
Reconnecting to the Biosphere social-ecological transformations
Biosphere Reserve Kristianstads Vattenrike, Southern Sweden
Perceived crisis – shift in mind set, shared vision From silo-management to integrative landscapes Window of opportunity, governance transformation Agency, organisations, institutions, networks Experimentation, learning Enabling environments – now MAB area
Olsson et al. 2004 E&S, Hahn et al. 2006 Human Ecol. Schultz et al. 2007 Env. Cons.
Transformations of SES towards ecosystem-based management
Preparing the system for change Navigating the
transition Building resilience of the new direction
Window of opportunity
Chile’s coastal resources Sweden’s urban landscapes Australia’s Great Barrier Reef
Olsson et al. 2008. PNAS Folke et al. 2005. ARER Chapin et al. 2010. TREE Gelcich et al. 2010. PNAS
Agency in navigating transformations, developing and retaining a social/collective memory of ecosystem management in the face of change
• Leaders, stewards, brookers, middlemen
• Knowledge carriers and retainers • Interpreters and sense makers • Networkers and facilitaters • Visionaries and inspirers • Innovators and experimenters • Followers and reinforcers • etc
Berkes, Colding, Folke. 2003
Bridging organizations
• Performing essential functions in crafting effective responses to change in social-ecological systems
• Accessing and combining multiple sources of knowledge and interests for ecosystem stewardship
• Linking groups, networks and organizations across levels, creating the right links, at the right time, around the right issues
• Enhancing social learning and vertical and horizontal governance integration
Bridging organization
Folke et al. 2005 ARER, Olsson et al. 2007 E&S
Resilience and social-ecological transformation
• under the “right conditions” - occur rapidly • often triggered by perturbation or surprise,
perceived crisis – opportunity • requires sources of resilience, locally emerging
or drawn upon from elsewhere, building on existing strengths, social structures, ecological knowledges, skills and perceptions and recombining them for new innovative solutions
Local ecosystems
Ecological knowledge & understanding
Management practices
Land and Seascapes
Catch- ment, Continen tal shelf
Institu- tions, Incen- tives
Nested Institutions, Organisa- tions, Social networks
Social-Ecological Systems Build knowledge and understanding of ecosystem dynamics
Drivers Drivers
processes, functions, dynamics, resilience Berkes and Folke 1998
Sources of resilience
• Social-ecological memory • Collaborative learning platforms and
communities of practice • retained and transmitted through
participation in imitation practices, learning processes, oral communication, collective gatherings,
• resides in structures of chalets and garden plots and other physical forms and artefacts as well as a number of rules-in-use (institutions)
• various forms of media, markets, social networks, collaborative organizations, and legal structures.
• Barthel, Folke, Colding, 2010. GEC e.g. gardens in urban areas
• Social adaptation and collective action detached from stewardship of ecosystem resilience may lead to traps and vulnerable SES • Political crises, disconnected from environmental issues, may open up opportunities for transformational change of SES • Open access and unsustainable extraction affecting ecosystems and livelihoods may be curbed through international adaptive governance
Reconnecting to the Biosphere
Resilience thinking: Persistence, Adaptability and
Transformability • dynamic interplay between rapid and gradual
change, between persistence and renewal
• interrelations across multiple scales
• combinations of old experiences, memories, knowledges for adaptation, transformation, and innovation
• transformations towards Earth stewardship, reconnecting to the biosphere
Gunderson and Holling 2002. Panarchy. Island Press Barthel et al. 2010. Global Environmental Change
Folke et al. 2011. Reconnecting to the Biosphere
Steffen et al. 2011. The Anthropocene: from global change to planetary stewardship
Westley et al. 2011. Tipping towards sustainability: emergent pathways of transformation
3rd Nobel Laureate Symposium on Global Sustainability
• Planetary Boundaries • Planetary Opportunities • Planetary Stewardship
• Part of the biosphere – environment not a sector
• Not about saving the environment – about us
• Not just climate but global change
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-‐Moon High Level Panel on Global Sustainability presented its report on 30 January 2012
Lack of SES resilience – expect surprise
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