building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

18
Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems. Nick Abel

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Presented by Nick Abel as part of the 2009 Place and Purpose Symposium run by the Landscape Science Cluster

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Page 1: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems.

Nick Abel

Page 2: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

How to adapt to an uncertain future: build resilience,

or transform?

Nick Abel

CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems

1/10/2009

Page 3: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

A social ecological system can usually be in more

than one ‘regime’

Page 4: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

The adaptive cycle

rK

r: growth / exploitation

resources readily available

K: conservation

things change

slowly; resources

‘locked up’

W: release

things change very rapidly;

‘locked up’ resources suddenly

released

a: re-organization/renewal

system boundaries tenuous;

innovations are possible

MDB

N Aus

Page 5: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

Cross scale linkages of adaptive cycles

Page 6: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

Transforming the Murray Darling Basin

• Think cross-scale

• Social process

• Values – what do we want them to be?

• Possible alternative regimes, ‘good’ and ‘bad’

• Winners & losers

• Feedbacks and thresholds

• Windows of opportunity & feasible paths

• Pilot projects

• Disinvestments in the current regime

• Investments in the new regime

• Rule changes

• Incentive changes

Page 7: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

Building resilience in Northern Australia

• Values

• Drivers and scenarios for them

• Cross scale influences

• Slow variables, feedbacks, & thresholds

Page 8: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

Page 9: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

groundwater

Following the flood...

Large floodplain, covered with healthy vegetation

dry rise healthy

vegetation

Surface water enlivens the landscape

Page 10: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

groundwater

Once the surface water’s gone...

Healthy vegetation & animals concentrate in waterholes

maintained by groundwater

dry risewaterholehealthy

vegetation

Page 11: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

groundwater

If groundwater extraction is excessive...

Waterholes dry up, area of healthy vegetation declines,

locals, tourists & animals suffer

healthy

vegetation

dry

waterhole

The landscape is sensitive to small changes in groundwater depth

Page 12: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

Page 13: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

Page 14: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

Building Resilience in NA - continued

• Possible alternative regimes

• Winners & losers

• Potential shocks

• Vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities

• Institutions & investments for resilience

Page 15: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

Institutions & investments for resilience

• Invest assuming climatic change will happen

• Invest in a diversity of resource uses

• Limit investments in enterprises & infrastructure that are

irreversible

• Identify thresholds of potential concern

• Can new land and water rights be time-bound?

• Develop ‘rules for changing the rules’

• Invest in self-organising capacity

• Invest in decentralised governance

Page 16: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

CSIRO.

Workbooks for practitioners and researchers

http://www.resalliance.org/1.php

Page 17: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

Thank youNick Abel

CSIRO Sustainable

Ecosystems

02 6242 1534

[email protected]

www.csiro.au

Page 18: Building or reducing resilience in our social-ecological systems

The Environment Institute