residential advisory committee · housekeeping – rac work plan 2019. q1 2019 feb 7 - portland q2...
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ResidentialAdvisoryCommitteeQ3 2019
August 1, 2019
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2
AgendaTime Topic
9:30 – 9:50 Welcome and Introductions
9:50 – 10:20 Housekeeping
10:20 – 11:20 Retail Product Platform – Market Development
11:20 – 11:30 Break
11:30 – 12:00 Clothes Washers – Introduction to Concept Advancement
12:00 – 12:30 Lunch
12:30 – 1:30 Utility Roundtable
1:30 – 1:40 Break
1:40 – 1:55 Smart Thermostat Research Project
1:55 – 2:40 Manufactured Homes – Market Development Preview
2:40 – 2:45 Opportunity for Public Comment
2:45 – 3:00 WRAP UP/ADJOURN
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Welcome!
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Housekeeping – RAC Work Plan 2019
Q1 2019Feb 7 - Portland
Q2 2019Apr 30 - Sea Lighting Lab
Q3 2019Aug 1 - Portland
Q4 2019Nov 7 - Portland?
Portfolio Review Portfolio Review
DHP/HPWH - 2019 Marketing Strat Review,
DHP LTMT Manufactored HomesMilestone Review
Manufactored HomesScale-up Milestone
Next Step Homes - update RPP Scale up Review
RPP FCP Review Next Step HomesMilestone Review
Next Step HomesMilestone Review
Retail Product PortfolioScale-up Milestone
Progress review Progress Review Progress review Progress Review
Workplan update Workplan update Workplan update Streamlining ResultRAC Roundtable RAC Roundtable RAC Roundtable RAC RoundtableAnnual RAC Charter Review Review Charter Confirm 2020 meeting datesWorkgroup Review
AC/WG StreamlingQ2 Meeting Location
Portfolio Review
Program Review
GOVERNANCE/OTHER
MISC TOPICS
REGIONAL MARKET STRATEGIES
CODES & STANDARDS
EMERGING TECH
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Housekeeping – Residential Program Memos
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NEEA Re-Org
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Next Meeting
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RPP Program: Scale-Up Overview
August 1, 2019
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Desired Outcomes
−A shared understanding of program design and status
−Alignment on achievements, risks, and mitigation
−Feedback from RAC on support for RPAC decision.
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Scale-Up Timeline
Q1 RAC presentation February 7
Q2 RAC presentation April 30
Internal approval at NEEA June 6
RPAC webinar June 24
Q3 RAC meeting August 1
Q3 RPAC meeting September 4
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NEEA ILC Phase
− Strategy Testing & Finalization Phase− Key activities:
• Test market• Refine strategy
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Program Overview
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RPP Goal
Manufacturers respond to market changes and build energy efficiency into product design, creating permanent change to their processes.
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RPP Theory
− Mid-stream incentives provide an opportunity to affect retail assortment and access to full-category sales data for a portfolio of consumer products.
− The program develops and deploys unique intervention strategies that reflect the nuance of each product.
− Ultimate impact is through the influence of specifications and standards, which affects manufacturing of entire product category.
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2019 Retailers & Products
*These products are not currently incentivized but NEEA and others are implementing MT strategies
Retailers
• Home Depot• Best Buy• Nationwide• Lowe’s
IncentedProducts
• Washers• Dryers • Refrigerators• Freezers• Room AC
Non-IncentedProducts*
• Air cleaners• Soundbars• UHD TVs
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Store Locations
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Residential Customers
% of US Households
NEEA – OR, WA, ID, MT 5,752,147 4.5%PG&E – CA 4,679,175 3.6%Con Edison – NY 2,869,881 2.2%EmPOWER Maryland – MD 2,158,914 1.7%Energize Connecticut – CT 1,396,397 1.1%Xcel – MN 1,113,587 0.9%NY State Electric and Gas – NY 900,000 0.7%SMUD – CA 542,930 0.4%Rochester Gas & Electric – NY 400,000 0.3%Efficiency Vermont – VT 310,932 0.2%
Total 20,123,963 15.6%
ESRPP Program Sponsors
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ENERGY STAR® RPP
− Taskforce structure• NEEA Staff lead key taskforces
− Collaborative decision-making− Common contract templates− All program sponsors use same data system− All program sponsors offer incentives on the
same portfolio of products/tiers• Each sets its own rates
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Product Selection Criteria
− ENERGY STAR certification− Significant retail sales and consumer demand− National support from ESRPP Program
Sponsors and other stakeholders− Wide selection of models including inefficient
• Efficient models represent multiple efficiency levels and price points
− Support of participating retailers
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Product Intervention Logic
Does available data identify EE
products?
What is EE market share?
Are EE products widely available?
Does common technology exceed
EE specs?
Is there an opportunity to
advance standards?
Measurement & Compliance
Specification Advancement Standards
Midstream Incentives
Emerging Technology
Yes
No
High/Growing Low/Stagnant
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Product Strategies
Product TierMidstream Incentives
Emerging Technology
Measurement & Compliance
Specification Advancement Standards
Air cleaner ENERGY STAR +30%ENERGY STAR +50%
Freezer – Chest ENERGY STARENERGY STAR +5%
Freezer – Compact ENERGY STARENERGY STAR +5%
Freezer – Upright ENERGY STARENERGY STAR +5%
Washer – Front-Load ENERGY STAR ES Most Efficient
Washer – Top-Load ENERGY STAR ES Most Efficient
Dryer ENERGY STAR ES Most Efficient
Soundbar ENERGY STAR +15%ENERGY STAR +50%
Refrigerator – Bottom Freezer ENERGY STARES Most Efficient
Refrigerator – Other ENERGY STARES Most Efficient
Refrigerator – Side Freezer ENERGY STARES Most Efficient
Room AC ENERGY STARES Most Efficient
UHD Television ENERGY STAR +20%ENERGY STAR +35%
Key1 = Key Strategy (drives savings)2 = Supporting Strategy
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Achievements
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Market Test Objectives
Build scale through retail and extra regional engagement
Scale
Improve transparency and streamline the Portfolio Management Process
Portfolio
Improve data administration and ability to track metricsData
Build consensus and buy-in on evaluation activities and approach
Eval
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Evaluation
− Recent Evaluation validated our Market Transformation evaluation approach
− Additionally, three large program sponsors evaluated in 2018, results generally positive
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How Do We Know it’s Working?
Product-Level Outcomes
• Specs and test procedures better reflect real world energy use
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How Do We Know it’s Working?
Product-Level Outcomes
• Specs and test procedures better reflect real world energy use
• Increase in market share for ENERGY STAR
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How Do We Know it’s Working?
Product-Level Outcomes
• Specs and test procedures better reflect real world energy use
• Increase in market share for ENERGY STAR• Increase in ENERGY STAR criteria
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How Do We Know it’s Working?
Product-Level Outcomes
• Specs and test procedures better reflect real world energy use
• Increase in market share for ENERGY STAR• Increase in ENERGY STAR criteria• Change in federal or state standards for RPP
categories
IMPACT: Manufacturers respond to market changes and build EE into product design
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Energy Savings
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Energy Savings Forecast
Savings Forecast (aMW)
2015-2019 2020-2024 2025-2029 2015-2034
Total Regional Savings 1.1-1.5 13-30 50-60 115-150
Co-Created Savings 0.6-0.8 8-16 30-50 40-90
Net Market Effects 0.6-0.8 8-16 30-50 40-90
Current Power Plan Baseline Regional Savings
4-5 4-6 TBD TBD
Benefit Cost Ratio Portfolio: 1.8
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Risks and Mitigation
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Risks and Mitigation
Risks Mitigation− Evaluation− EPA role− PG&E role
− Technical support− Planning assistance− CPUC communication
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Market Development
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Summary
− The state of the program is GOOD:• Sound market theory• Visible market impact• Validated program elements• Savings calculation approach
− However, there are some risks and we are working to mitigate those.
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Market Development Overview
− Continue to refine and implement product strategies
− Work to revise ENERGY STAR specifications
− Monitor for federal standards opportunities− Develop strategy for online sales
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Recommendation
− Move into Market Development in 2019− RPAC decision September 4
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Discussion
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Thank you!
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BreakReturn at11:00 a.m.
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Clothes Washer Concept Advancement
Nick LeritzRAC Q3 2019 Meeting
August 1, 2019
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Desired outcomes:
− RAC members are informed of the work NEEA is doing on residential clothes washers
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Agenda
− ILC Status− A Brief History− Current Market Context− Looking Forward
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ILC Status
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NEEA ILC Phase
Concept Opportunity Assessment
− Planning the Initiative− Conducting outreach to stakeholders− Forming the Initiative team
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Some Entertainment
− GE Top Load Agitator - Play Video− Do your laundry ‘the old school way!’
https://www.youtube.com/embed/tRtHk5hk8v4?rel=0https://www.geappliances.com/ge/washer/traditional-top-load-washing-machine.htm
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A (very) Brief History…
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Past Activities
2000: NEEA Clothes
Washer Initiative Ends
2016: Clothes Washers Added to RPP
2017:RTF Issues Proposed Research Strategy
2018:SED/RPP
Conducts a Laundry
Deep Dive
2019:Initiative Concept
Development
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Current Market Context
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Clothes Washer Market ContextNEEA RPP Sales 2018-2019
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Clothes Washer Market ContextNEEA RPP Sales 2015- Q2 2019, Top Load Only
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Market Status
− Consumers prefer top load washers− Lack of consumer awareness on
efficient options (top and front)− Flawed performance metric− Dryer savings are dependent on
washer performance
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Savings Potential
− Technical Potential: 110 aMW
− Estimated Achievable 20-year Potential: 45 aMW
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Looking Forward
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Intended Outcomes
− Washer test procedure and efficiency metric accurately represents real world performance and does not encourage larger capacity where it is not a benefit to the consumer.
− Increase the efficiency of the entire product category via two main levers:• Increase market share of front load models (best
case scenario).• Increase efficiency of top load models, through
product improvements and/or increasing sales of the most efficient models
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Current and Planned Activities
Execute RTF Research Strategy
Research trends in high-efficiency washers
Advocate for increasing top-load efficiency
Push for revised ESTAR levels and improved ESME specification
Encourage manufacturers to offer low cost front-load option
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Q&A
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Thank you!
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Lunch is being served
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Round Robin Share-out
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Break
Please be back by 2:10
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Smart Thermostat Research Project UpdateJosh MitchellRAC Q3 2019 Meeting
August 1, 2019
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Background
RTF Connected Thermostat measure scheduled to sunset Nov. 30, 2019.
Smart Thermostat Task Force developed the Research Strategy mid-2018.
More regional data needed.
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Participating Stakeholders
Bonneville Power AdministrationChelan County PUDClark County PUD
Energy Trust of OregonIdaho Power
Northwest Power and Conversation CouncilPuget Sound Energy
Seattle City LightSnohomish County PUD
Tacoma Power
*This project is specially funded by the participating Stakeholders and not included in NEEA's Ops Plan budget
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Develop and verify a methodology to estimate energy savings for smart thermostats based on product characteristics and performance metrics.
Phase 1 Activities
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Determine deemed energy savings from specific Smart Thermostat products and applications with sufficient reliability.
Phase 1 Activities
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Determine savings shape/profile for smart thermostats.
Phase 2 Activities
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Determine smart thermostat control of variable speed HVAC systems based on quality of available data
Phase 2 Activities
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Project Status & Next Steps
RFP posted on 6/7/19
Received 4 responses/Interviewed 3
Review team chose Apex Analytics
Contracting with participating funders
Work scheduled to begin Sept 2019
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Thank you
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NEEM+ Scale-Up Review
Neil Grigsby, NEEA
August 1, 2019
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Agenda
Background
Review Progress To Date
Preparing for Scale-Up
Review Proposed Future Activities
Feedback and Discussion
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Desired Outcomes
Prepare for RPAC in Q4
RAC members are informed on current program activities
Receive feedback on Market Development activities.
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Program Overview
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Manufactured Homes Goal
Establish an advanced specification leveraging the existing NEEM infrastructure to influence a future HUD code change.
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The Approach
Leverage the NEEM program
Engage Upstream
Establish a new energy efficiency specification
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Background
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Project Concept
Upgrade NEEM prior to HUD code changeImprove demand for efficient manufactured homes
Influence EPA’s “ENERGY STAR” Program requirements
NEEM2.0
Future HUD Code
2016
NEEM
1994 HUD Code
NEEM 2.0
NEEM
1994 HUD Code
2020
40% NEEM v1 10-20% NEEM v2 40+% NEEM v255% NEEM v1
Today’sENERGY
STAR
FutureENERGYSTAR?
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NEEM+ Background
Pending HUD Code Change
2015
NEEM 2.0 RTF approval
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q2 2017
Q4 2017
NEEM 2.0 Demonstration
homes Path to Purchase homebuyer research
BPA Implementation
Manual
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Changing Market Factors
HUD Code Change Delayed
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Changing Market Factors
Manufacturers are Busy
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Changing Market Factors
NEEM Savings Reduced
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2 31
August2017
Q3 RAC Review utility feedback and incentive strategy
Q2 RACProgram update and discussion
April2017
Q3 RPAC Agreement on strategy to move forward
August 2017
Advisory Committee Collaboration
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Streamlining the Effort
Combining the PRA and SA ILC Phases
Shorten the MT Timeframe
Leverage the NEEM program
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Strategy Testing and Finalization
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NEEA ILC Phase
− Strategy Testing & Finalization Phase− Key activities:
• Test market• Refine strategy
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Key Objectives
Manufacturers offer and build NEEM+
Retailers promote NEEM+ to homebuyers
Consumer demand drives NEEM+ market adoption
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Manufacturer & Retailer Activities
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Consumer Activities
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Digital Campaign
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Market Assessment
Have we removed existing barriers, or discovered new barriers?
Where does NEEM+ stand in the market?
Have the program activities been effective?
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Market Development
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Key Themes
A stable market for NEEM+ exists
Minimize risk
NEEM is LEAN
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Key Activities
Increasing retailer ability to influence homebuyers
Solidifying NEEM+ Manufacturers Commitment
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Scale Up Timeline
8/1/19 RAC Q3 Meeting
8/31/19 - Market Assessment Finalized
Mid-Sept - Milestone documentation
10/1/19 - Internal Directors Meeting
TBD - RAC webinar
11/13/19 - RPAC Meeting
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Scale Up Timeline
8/1/19 RAC Q3 Meeting
8/31/19 - Market Assessment Finalized
Mid-Sept - Milestone documentation
10/1/19 - Internal Directors Meeting
TBD - RAC webinar
11/13/19 - RPAC Meeting
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Scale Up Timeline
8/1/19 RAC Q3 Meeting
8/31/19 - Market Assessment Finalized
Mid-Sept - Milestone documentation
10/1/19 - Internal Directors Meeting
TBD - RAC webinar
11/13/19RPAC Meeting
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Scale Up Timeline
8/1/19 RAC Q3 Meeting
8/31/19 - Market Assessment Finalized
Mid-Sept - Milestone documentation
10/1/19 - Internal Directors Meeting
TBD - RAC webinar
11/13/19RPAC Meeting
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Scale Up Timeline
8/1/19 RAC Q3 Meeting
8/31/19 - Market Assessment Finalized
Mid-Sept - Milestone documentation
10/1/19 - Internal Directors Meeting
TBD - RAC webinar
11/13/19RPAC Meeting
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Scale Up Timeline
8/1/19 RAC Q3 Meeting
8/31/19 - Market Assessment Finalized
Mid-Sept - Milestone documentation
10/1/19 - Internal Directors Meeting
TBD - RAC webinar
11/13/19 - RPAC Meeting
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Questions
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Thanks!
Neil Grigsby, ngrigsby@neea.org
mailto:ngrigsby@neea.org
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Public Comment & Wrap-up
Eugene Rosolie
August 2, 2018
Residential�Advisory�CommitteeSlide Number 2Welcome!Housekeeping – RAC Work Plan 2019Housekeeping – Residential Program MemosNEEA Re-OrgSlide Number 7Next Meeting RPP Program: �Scale-Up OverviewSlide Number 10Scale-Up TimelineNEEA ILC PhaseProgram OverviewRPP GoalRPP Theory2019 Retailers & ProductsStore Locations Slide Number 18ENERGY STAR® RPPProduct Selection CriteriaProduct Intervention LogicProduct StrategiesAchievementsMarket Test ObjectivesEvaluationHow Do We Know it’s Working?How Do We Know it’s Working?How Do We Know it’s Working?How Do We Know it’s Working?Energy SavingsEnergy Savings ForecastRisks and MitigationRisks and MitigationMarket DevelopmentSummaryMarket Development OverviewRecommendationDiscussionThank you!Break�Return at�11:00 a.m.Clothes Washer Concept Advancement�Desired outcomes:AgendaILC StatusNEEA ILC PhaseSome EntertainmentA (very) Brief History…Past ActivitiesCurrent Market ContextClothes Washer Market ContextSlide Number 51Market StatusSavings PotentialLooking ForwardIntended OutcomesCurrent and Planned ActivitiesQ&AThank you!Lunch is being servedRound Robin Share-outBreak ��Please be back by 2:10Smart Thermostat Research Project UpdateBackgroundParticipating StakeholdersSlide Number 65Slide Number 66Slide Number 67Slide Number 68Project Status & Next StepsThank youNEEM+ �Scale-Up ReviewAgendaSlide Number 73Program OverviewManufactured Homes GoalThe ApproachBackground Project ConceptNEEM+ BackgroundChanging Market FactorsChanging Market FactorsChanging Market FactorsSlide Number 83Streamlining the EffortStrategy Testing and Finalization NEEA ILC PhaseKey ObjectivesManufacturer & Retailer Activities Consumer Activities Digital CampaignMarket Assessment Market Development Key ThemesKey ActivitiesScale Up TimelineScale Up TimelineScale Up TimelineScale Up TimelineScale Up TimelineScale Up TimelineQuestionsThanks!Public Comment & Wrap-up
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