ResidentialAdvisoryCommitteeQ3 2019

August 1, 2019

2

AgendaTime Topic

9:30 – 9:50 Welcome and Introductions

9:50 – 10:20 Housekeeping

10:20 – 11:20 Retail Product Platform – Market Development

11:20 – 11:30 Break

11:30 – 12:00 Clothes Washers – Introduction to Concept Advancement

12:00 – 12:30 Lunch

12:30 – 1:30 Utility Roundtable

1:30 – 1:40 Break

1:40 – 1:55 Smart Thermostat Research Project

1:55 – 2:40 Manufactured Homes – Market Development Preview

2:40 – 2:45 Opportunity for Public Comment

2:45 – 3:00 WRAP UP/ADJOURN

3

Welcome!

4

Housekeeping – RAC Work Plan 2019

Q1 2019Feb 7 - Portland

Q2 2019Apr 30 - Sea Lighting Lab

Q3 2019Aug 1 - Portland

Q4 2019Nov 7 - Portland?

Portfolio Review Portfolio Review

DHP/HPWH - 2019 Marketing Strat Review,

DHP LTMT Manufactored HomesMilestone Review

Manufactored HomesScale-up Milestone

Next Step Homes - update RPP Scale up Review

RPP FCP Review Next Step HomesMilestone Review

Next Step HomesMilestone Review

Retail Product PortfolioScale-up Milestone

Progress review Progress Review Progress review Progress Review

Workplan update Workplan update Workplan update Streamlining ResultRAC Roundtable RAC Roundtable RAC Roundtable RAC RoundtableAnnual RAC Charter Review Review Charter Confirm 2020 meeting datesWorkgroup Review

AC/WG StreamlingQ2 Meeting Location

Portfolio Review

Program Review

GOVERNANCE/OTHER

MISC TOPICS

REGIONAL MARKET STRATEGIES

CODES & STANDARDS

EMERGING TECH

5

Housekeeping – Residential Program Memos

NEEA Re-Org

8

Next Meeting

RPP Program: Scale-Up Overview

August 1, 2019

10

Desired Outcomes

−A shared understanding of program design and status

−Alignment on achievements, risks, and mitigation

−Feedback from RAC on support for RPAC decision.

11

Scale-Up Timeline

Q1 RAC presentation February 7

Q2 RAC presentation April 30

Internal approval at NEEA June 6

RPAC webinar June 24

Q3 RAC meeting August 1

Q3 RPAC meeting September 4

12

NEEA ILC Phase

− Strategy Testing & Finalization Phase− Key activities:

• Test market• Refine strategy

13

Program Overview

14

RPP Goal

Manufacturers respond to market changes and build energy efficiency into product design, creating permanent change to their processes.

15

RPP Theory

− Mid-stream incentives provide an opportunity to affect retail assortment and access to full-category sales data for a portfolio of consumer products.

− The program develops and deploys unique intervention strategies that reflect the nuance of each product.

− Ultimate impact is through the influence of specifications and standards, which affects manufacturing of entire product category.

16

2019 Retailers & Products

*These products are not currently incentivized but NEEA and others are implementing MT strategies

Retailers

• Home Depot• Best Buy• Nationwide• Lowe’s

IncentedProducts

• Washers• Dryers • Refrigerators• Freezers• Room AC

Non-IncentedProducts*

• Air cleaners• Soundbars• UHD TVs

17

Store Locations

18

Residential Customers

% of US Households

NEEA – OR, WA, ID, MT 5,752,147 4.5%PG&E – CA 4,679,175 3.6%Con Edison – NY 2,869,881 2.2%EmPOWER Maryland – MD 2,158,914 1.7%Energize Connecticut – CT 1,396,397 1.1%Xcel – MN 1,113,587 0.9%NY State Electric and Gas – NY 900,000 0.7%SMUD – CA 542,930 0.4%Rochester Gas & Electric – NY 400,000 0.3%Efficiency Vermont – VT 310,932 0.2%

Total 20,123,963 15.6%

ESRPP Program Sponsors

19

ENERGY STAR® RPP

− Taskforce structure• NEEA Staff lead key taskforces

− Collaborative decision-making− Common contract templates− All program sponsors use same data system− All program sponsors offer incentives on the

same portfolio of products/tiers• Each sets its own rates

20

Product Selection Criteria

− ENERGY STAR certification− Significant retail sales and consumer demand− National support from ESRPP Program

Sponsors and other stakeholders− Wide selection of models including inefficient

• Efficient models represent multiple efficiency levels and price points

− Support of participating retailers

21

Product Intervention Logic

Does available data identify EE

products?

What is EE market share?

Are EE products widely available?

Does common technology exceed

EE specs?

Is there an opportunity to

advance standards?

Measurement & Compliance

Specification Advancement Standards

Midstream Incentives

Emerging Technology

Yes

No

High/Growing Low/Stagnant

22

Product Strategies

Product TierMidstream Incentives

Emerging Technology

Measurement & Compliance

Specification Advancement Standards

Air cleaner ENERGY STAR +30%ENERGY STAR +50%

Freezer – Chest ENERGY STARENERGY STAR +5%

Freezer – Compact ENERGY STARENERGY STAR +5%

Freezer – Upright ENERGY STARENERGY STAR +5%

Washer – Front-Load ENERGY STAR ES Most Efficient

Washer – Top-Load ENERGY STAR ES Most Efficient

Dryer ENERGY STAR ES Most Efficient

Soundbar ENERGY STAR +15%ENERGY STAR +50%

Refrigerator – Bottom Freezer ENERGY STARES Most Efficient

Refrigerator – Other ENERGY STARES Most Efficient

Refrigerator – Side Freezer ENERGY STARES Most Efficient

Room AC ENERGY STARES Most Efficient

UHD Television ENERGY STAR +20%ENERGY STAR +35%

Key1 = Key Strategy (drives savings)2 = Supporting Strategy

23

Achievements

24

Market Test Objectives

Build scale through retail and extra regional engagement

Scale

Improve transparency and streamline the Portfolio Management Process

Portfolio

Improve data administration and ability to track metricsData

Build consensus and buy-in on evaluation activities and approach

Eval

25

Evaluation

− Recent Evaluation validated our Market Transformation evaluation approach

− Additionally, three large program sponsors evaluated in 2018, results generally positive

26

How Do We Know it’s Working?

Product-Level Outcomes

• Specs and test procedures better reflect real world energy use

27

How Do We Know it’s Working?

Product-Level Outcomes

• Specs and test procedures better reflect real world energy use

• Increase in market share for ENERGY STAR

28

How Do We Know it’s Working?

Product-Level Outcomes

• Specs and test procedures better reflect real world energy use

• Increase in market share for ENERGY STAR• Increase in ENERGY STAR criteria

29

How Do We Know it’s Working?

Product-Level Outcomes

• Specs and test procedures better reflect real world energy use

• Increase in market share for ENERGY STAR• Increase in ENERGY STAR criteria• Change in federal or state standards for RPP

categories

IMPACT: Manufacturers respond to market changes and build EE into product design

30

Energy Savings

31

Energy Savings Forecast

Savings Forecast (aMW)

2015-2019 2020-2024 2025-2029 2015-2034

Total Regional Savings 1.1-1.5 13-30 50-60 115-150

Co-Created Savings 0.6-0.8 8-16 30-50 40-90

Net Market Effects 0.6-0.8 8-16 30-50 40-90

Current Power Plan Baseline Regional Savings

4-5 4-6 TBD TBD

Benefit Cost Ratio Portfolio: 1.8

32

Risks and Mitigation

33

Risks and Mitigation

Risks Mitigation− Evaluation− EPA role− PG&E role

− Technical support− Planning assistance− CPUC communication

34

Market Development

35

Summary

− The state of the program is GOOD:• Sound market theory• Visible market impact• Validated program elements• Savings calculation approach

− However, there are some risks and we are working to mitigate those.

36

Market Development Overview

− Continue to refine and implement product strategies

− Work to revise ENERGY STAR specifications

− Monitor for federal standards opportunities− Develop strategy for online sales

37

Recommendation

− Move into Market Development in 2019− RPAC decision September 4

38

Discussion

Thank you!

40

BreakReturn at11:00 a.m.

Clothes Washer Concept Advancement

Nick LeritzRAC Q3 2019 Meeting

August 1, 2019

42

Desired outcomes:

− RAC members are informed of the work NEEA is doing on residential clothes washers

43

Agenda

− ILC Status− A Brief History− Current Market Context− Looking Forward

44

ILC Status

45

NEEA ILC Phase

Concept Opportunity Assessment

− Planning the Initiative− Conducting outreach to stakeholders− Forming the Initiative team

46

Some Entertainment

− GE Top Load Agitator - Play Video− Do your laundry ‘the old school way!’

https://www.youtube.com/embed/tRtHk5hk8v4?rel=0https://www.geappliances.com/ge/washer/traditional-top-load-washing-machine.htm

47

A (very) Brief History…

48

Past Activities

2000: NEEA Clothes

Washer Initiative Ends

2016: Clothes Washers Added to RPP

2017:RTF Issues Proposed Research Strategy

2018:SED/RPP

Conducts a Laundry

Deep Dive

2019:Initiative Concept

Development

49

Current Market Context

50

Clothes Washer Market ContextNEEA RPP Sales 2018-2019

51

Clothes Washer Market ContextNEEA RPP Sales 2015- Q2 2019, Top Load Only

52

Market Status

− Consumers prefer top load washers− Lack of consumer awareness on

efficient options (top and front)− Flawed performance metric− Dryer savings are dependent on

washer performance

53

Savings Potential

− Technical Potential: 110 aMW

− Estimated Achievable 20-year Potential: 45 aMW

54

Looking Forward

55

Intended Outcomes

− Washer test procedure and efficiency metric accurately represents real world performance and does not encourage larger capacity where it is not a benefit to the consumer.

− Increase the efficiency of the entire product category via two main levers:• Increase market share of front load models (best

case scenario).• Increase efficiency of top load models, through

product improvements and/or increasing sales of the most efficient models

56

Current and Planned Activities

Execute RTF Research Strategy

Research trends in high-efficiency washers

Advocate for increasing top-load efficiency

Push for revised ESTAR levels and improved ESME specification

Encourage manufacturers to offer low cost front-load option

57

Q&A

Thank you!

Lunch is being served

Round Robin Share-out

61

Break

Please be back by 2:10

Smart Thermostat Research Project UpdateJosh MitchellRAC Q3 2019 Meeting

August 1, 2019

63

Background

RTF Connected Thermostat measure scheduled to sunset Nov. 30, 2019.

Smart Thermostat Task Force developed the Research Strategy mid-2018.

More regional data needed.

64

Participating Stakeholders

Bonneville Power AdministrationChelan County PUDClark County PUD

Energy Trust of OregonIdaho Power

Northwest Power and Conversation CouncilPuget Sound Energy

Seattle City LightSnohomish County PUD

Tacoma Power

*This project is specially funded by the participating Stakeholders and not included in NEEA's Ops Plan budget

65

Develop and verify a methodology to estimate energy savings for smart thermostats based on product characteristics and performance metrics.

Phase 1 Activities

66

Determine deemed energy savings from specific Smart Thermostat products and applications with sufficient reliability.

Phase 1 Activities

67

Determine savings shape/profile for smart thermostats.

Phase 2 Activities

68

Determine smart thermostat control of variable speed HVAC systems based on quality of available data

Phase 2 Activities

69

Project Status & Next Steps

RFP posted on 6/7/19

Received 4 responses/Interviewed 3

Review team chose Apex Analytics

Contracting with participating funders

Work scheduled to begin Sept 2019

Thank you

NEEM+ Scale-Up Review

Neil Grigsby, NEEA

August 1, 2019

72

Agenda

Background

Review Progress To Date

Preparing for Scale-Up

Review Proposed Future Activities

Feedback and Discussion

73

Desired Outcomes

Prepare for RPAC in Q4

RAC members are informed on current program activities

Receive feedback on Market Development activities.

74

Program Overview

75

Manufactured Homes Goal

Establish an advanced specification leveraging the existing NEEM infrastructure to influence a future HUD code change.

76

The Approach

Leverage the NEEM program

Engage Upstream

Establish a new energy efficiency specification

77

Background

Project Concept

Upgrade NEEM prior to HUD code changeImprove demand for efficient manufactured homes

Influence EPA’s “ENERGY STAR” Program requirements

NEEM2.0

Future HUD Code

2016

NEEM

1994 HUD Code

NEEM 2.0

NEEM

1994 HUD Code

2020

40% NEEM v1 10-20% NEEM v2 40+% NEEM v255% NEEM v1

Today’sENERGY

STAR

FutureENERGYSTAR?

79

NEEM+ Background

Pending HUD Code Change

2015

NEEM 2.0 RTF approval

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q2 2017

Q4 2017

NEEM 2.0 Demonstration

homes Path to Purchase homebuyer research

BPA Implementation

Manual

80

Changing Market Factors

HUD Code Change Delayed

81

Changing Market Factors

Manufacturers are Busy

82

Changing Market Factors

NEEM Savings Reduced

83

2 31

August2017

Q3 RAC Review utility feedback and incentive strategy

Q2 RACProgram update and discussion

April2017

Q3 RPAC Agreement on strategy to move forward

August 2017

Advisory Committee Collaboration

84

Streamlining the Effort

Combining the PRA and SA ILC Phases

Shorten the MT Timeframe

Leverage the NEEM program

85

Strategy Testing and Finalization

86

NEEA ILC Phase

− Strategy Testing & Finalization Phase− Key activities:

• Test market• Refine strategy

87

Key Objectives

Manufacturers offer and build NEEM+

Retailers promote NEEM+ to homebuyers

Consumer demand drives NEEM+ market adoption

88

Manufacturer & Retailer Activities

89

Consumer Activities

90

Digital Campaign

91

Market Assessment

Have we removed existing barriers, or discovered new barriers?

Where does NEEM+ stand in the market?

Have the program activities been effective?

92

Market Development

93

Key Themes

A stable market for NEEM+ exists

Minimize risk

NEEM is LEAN

94

Key Activities

Increasing retailer ability to influence homebuyers

Solidifying NEEM+ Manufacturers Commitment

95

Scale Up Timeline

8/1/19 RAC Q3 Meeting

8/31/19 - Market Assessment Finalized

Mid-Sept - Milestone documentation

10/1/19 - Internal Directors Meeting

TBD - RAC webinar

11/13/19 - RPAC Meeting

96

Scale Up Timeline

8/1/19 RAC Q3 Meeting

8/31/19 - Market Assessment Finalized

Mid-Sept - Milestone documentation

10/1/19 - Internal Directors Meeting

TBD - RAC webinar

11/13/19 - RPAC Meeting

97

Scale Up Timeline

8/1/19 RAC Q3 Meeting

8/31/19 - Market Assessment Finalized

Mid-Sept - Milestone documentation

10/1/19 - Internal Directors Meeting

TBD - RAC webinar

11/13/19RPAC Meeting

98

Scale Up Timeline

8/1/19 RAC Q3 Meeting

8/31/19 - Market Assessment Finalized

Mid-Sept - Milestone documentation

10/1/19 - Internal Directors Meeting

TBD - RAC webinar

11/13/19RPAC Meeting

99

Scale Up Timeline

8/1/19 RAC Q3 Meeting

8/31/19 - Market Assessment Finalized

Mid-Sept - Milestone documentation

10/1/19 - Internal Directors Meeting

TBD - RAC webinar

11/13/19RPAC Meeting

100

Scale Up Timeline

8/1/19 RAC Q3 Meeting

8/31/19 - Market Assessment Finalized

Mid-Sept - Milestone documentation

10/1/19 - Internal Directors Meeting

TBD - RAC webinar

11/13/19 - RPAC Meeting

101

Questions

Thanks!

Neil Grigsby, ngrigsby@neea.org

mailto:ngrigsby@neea.org

Public Comment & Wrap-up

Eugene Rosolie

August 2, 2018

Residential�Advisory�CommitteeSlide Number 2Welcome!Housekeeping – RAC Work Plan 2019Housekeeping – Residential Program MemosNEEA Re-OrgSlide Number 7Next Meeting RPP Program: �Scale-Up OverviewSlide Number 10Scale-Up TimelineNEEA ILC PhaseProgram OverviewRPP GoalRPP Theory2019 Retailers & ProductsStore Locations Slide Number 18ENERGY STAR® RPPProduct Selection CriteriaProduct Intervention LogicProduct StrategiesAchievementsMarket Test ObjectivesEvaluationHow Do We Know it’s Working?How Do We Know it’s Working?How Do We Know it’s Working?How Do We Know it’s Working?Energy SavingsEnergy Savings ForecastRisks and MitigationRisks and MitigationMarket DevelopmentSummaryMarket Development OverviewRecommendationDiscussionThank you!Break�Return at�11:00 a.m.Clothes Washer Concept Advancement�Desired outcomes:AgendaILC StatusNEEA ILC PhaseSome EntertainmentA (very) Brief History…Past ActivitiesCurrent Market ContextClothes Washer Market ContextSlide Number 51Market StatusSavings PotentialLooking ForwardIntended OutcomesCurrent and Planned ActivitiesQ&AThank you!Lunch is being servedRound Robin Share-outBreak ��Please be back by 2:10Smart Thermostat Research Project UpdateBackgroundParticipating StakeholdersSlide Number 65Slide Number 66Slide Number 67Slide Number 68Project Status & Next StepsThank youNEEM+ �Scale-Up ReviewAgendaSlide Number 73Program OverviewManufactured Homes GoalThe ApproachBackground Project ConceptNEEM+ BackgroundChanging Market FactorsChanging Market FactorsChanging Market FactorsSlide Number 83Streamlining the EffortStrategy Testing and Finalization NEEA ILC PhaseKey ObjectivesManufacturer & Retailer Activities Consumer Activities Digital CampaignMarket Assessment Market Development Key ThemesKey ActivitiesScale Up TimelineScale Up TimelineScale Up TimelineScale Up TimelineScale Up TimelineScale Up TimelineQuestionsThanks!Public Comment & Wrap-up