report 6 social support to the catalan state
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The social support to the Catalan State
February 2012
2
Between 2007-2012, different organizations have performed surveys on the social support to the Catalan State
Source: Viquipèdia,http://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estudis_del_suport_social_a_la_independ%C3%A8ncia_de_Catalunya
Public Organisations
Newspapers
Radios and TV
3
Most of them asked directly about the eventual vote in a referendum for the independence of Catalonia.
Public organisations
Newspapers
Radios and TV
Source: Viquipèdia,http://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estudis_del_suport_social_a_la_independ%C3%A8ncia_de_Catalunya
4
The survey considers different answers : “Yes”, “No”, “Abstain”, “Blank”, “Don’t know”, “no answer” and “Other”
Interviewer/OrganizerRelease
dateYES(%)
NO (%)
Abstain (%)
Blank(%)
Don’t Know(%)
No answer (%)
Other(%)
Institut de Ciències Polítiques i Socials nov-11 41,4 22,9 25,5 1,0 8,3 0,9 -
Centre d'Estudis d'Opiniójun-11 42,9 28,2 23,3 0,0 4,4 0,8 0,5
oct-11 45,4 24,7 23,8 0,0 4,6 1,0 0,6
Universitat Oberta de Catalunya
feb-08 36,5 22,1 27,1 0,0 11,7 0,0 0,0
feb-09 50,3 17,8 24,6 0,0 5,8 1,4 0,0
feb-10 50,4 17,8 24,6 0,0 5,8 1,4 0,0
Baròmetre de la Comunicació i la Cultura abr-11 34,2 30,0 9,6 3,2 23,0 -
Ara (Newspaper)nov-10 38,5 42,8 7,2 0,0 8,8 2,8
sep-11 42,0 37,7 7,7 0,0 10,7 1,8
El Periódico (Newspaper)
abr-07 44,9 40,0 15,1
oct-07 33,9 43,9 9,8 12,5 -
dic-09 39,0 40,6 7,0 2,0 11,4 -
jun-10 48,1 35,3 6,1 2,6 7,9 -
ene-12 53,6 32,0 14,4
La Vanguardia (Newspaper)
nov-09 35,0 46,0 19,0 -
mar-10 36,0 44,0 20,0 -
may-10 37,0 41,0 22,0 -
jul-10 47,0 36,0 7,0 3,0 5,0 -
sep-10 40,0 45,0 7,0 3,0 5,0 -
TV3 (TV) mar-10 39,3 47,8 - - 11,0 1,8 -
RAC 1 (Radio) sep-10 48,8 41,4 - - 9,7 - -
SER (Radio) nov-10 42,3 52,8 - - 2,8 2,1 -
Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
5
Results show different figures depending on how the answers (besides YES and NO) are put together.
Results by chronological order (%)
4534 37
5035 39
5039 36 37
48 4740
4939 42
3443 42 45 41
54
40
4422
18 46 41 1848
44 41
35 3645
41
43
53
3028
3825
23
32
1522
3932
19 2032
1320 22 17 15 15 10
195
3629
2030 36
14
“Yes”
“No”
Abstain, blank, don’t know, no answer, other
Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
6
But in a referendum, results are only YES or NO, so
Results by chronological order(%)
5344
6274
43 49
74
45 45 4758 57
4754
47 4453
6053
65 64 63
4756
3826
57 51
26
55 55 5342 43
5346
53 5647
4047
35 36 37
Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
Yes
No
7
The support to the Catalan Satate is increasing and is already widely for the Catalan State
Conclusions
All survey show that “YES” is increasing
In average, “YES” is increasing by 6% every year
If this trend remains, “YES” would be suppoorted by 70% of the people by 2013.
All surveys from 2011 on show a support to the YES greater than 50%
Three surveys from 2011 on show a support to the YES greater than 60%
1
2
3
4
5
8
All medias that have performed two (or more) surveys, show that “YES” is increasing (1/2)
Source: Viquipèdia, CEO, UOC, Ara
Trend of the surveys on a referendum for the independence of Catalonia
June 2011 October 2011
60% 65%
40% 35%
Yes
No
November 2010
September 2011
47% 53%
53% 47%
Yes
No
February 2008
February 2009
February 2010
62%74% 74%
38%26% 26%
Yes
No
9
All medias that have performed two (or more) surveys, show that “YES” is increasing (2/2)
Sourcet: La Vanguardia, El Periódico
Trend of the surveys on a referendum for the independence of Catalonia
Nov 2009
March 2010
May 2010
July 2010
Sept2010
43% 45% 47%57%
47%
57% 55% 53%43%
53%
Yes
No
Apr 2007
Oct 2007
Des 2009
Jun 2010
Jan 2012
53%44% 49%
58% 63%
47%56% 51%
42% 37%
Yes
No
10
The trend line shows a clear social support to the “YES”
Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SERNote: UOC survey not taking into account because of very different final results.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Trend for the “Yes” versus all the votes ( “yes” and “no”)
Trend line, with a level of correlation (R2) of 0,6
Yes
11
In average, “Yes” is increasing by 6% every year
Source:, ICPS, CEO, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SERNote: UOC survey not taking into account because of very different final results
2009 2010 2011 2012 (january)
46% 49%59% 63%
Trend for the “Yes” versus all the votes ( “yes” and “no”)(simple average)
3 %
10 %
4 %
Average increase per year = 6%
Yes
12
If this trend remains, “Yes” would be supported by 70% of the people by 2013
Source: Anàlisi del CCN en base a dades de Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SERNote: UOC survey not taking into account because of very different final results
Extrapolation for 2013 and 2014
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (es-timation)
2014 (es-timation)
46.1%49.4%
59.1%62.6%
69.1%
75.0%
Yes
13
All surveys between 2001 and 2012 show a support to the “Yes” greater than 50%
Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió
Inst. de Ciències Polítiques i Socials
El Periódico
Baròmetre de la Comun. i la Cultura
Diari Ara
64.8%
64.4%
62.6%
53.3%
52.7%
Votes for “Yes” versus all votes valid (“Yes” and “No”)
50%
14
Three surveys from 2011 on show a support to the “Yes” greater than 60%
Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió
Inst. de Ciències Polítiques i Socials
El Periódico
Baròmetre de la Comun. i la Cultura
Diari Ara
64.8%
64.4%
62.6%
53.3%
52.7%
Votes for “Yes” versus all votes valid (“Yes” and “No”)
Source: Anàlisi del CCN en base a dades de Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER
15
We can conclude that the major social support to the YES is in Catalonia, already a reality
In the last surveys, “Yes” gets more than 50% of the votes and some cases , more than 60%
If the trend remains, support to the “Yes” will reach 70% of the votes by early 2013
As in Scotland, an official referendum will increase the support to the “Yes” thanks to the campain
We ask at the Catalan Governement to focus on the process to achieve thge Catalan State, via referendum or via early elections. A debate focused on the futur Catalan State
is necessary.
Empresaris per l’Estat propi
www.ccncat.cat info@ccncat.cat
Només amb un Estat propi Catalunya serà econòmicament viable
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