pseudo-states 1.located at the margins of geostrategic regions (“geopolitical blackholes”)...

Pseudo-states

1. Located at the margins of geostrategic regions (“geopolitical blackholes”)2. Usually associated with minority separatist nationalism in periphery2. Region often has a tradition of identity and separateness3. Pseudo-state defined and set up after conflict – ceasefire lines4. External benefactor – e.g. Russia for Abkhazia, TMR, S.Ossetia5. Authoritarianism – close relations of state and crime6. Transhipment point for smuggled goods7. Identity and separatist goals grow over time8. Presence of “matrioshka” identities in the pseudo-state

Examples – Abkhazia, Transniestria, Turkish Republic of N. Cyprus, Chechnya, Adjaria, S. Ossetia, FARC region of Columbia, Serb Republic of Bosnia, Montenegro, Kosovo

A region of pseudo-states

Who hates?The current line-up

Moldovan tragedy

Average monthly wage - $40 (Poland $380)

Drop in life expectancy since 1989 – 6 years

Median year’s wage 1999 - $220 (1991 $2000)

% attending vocational training 5% (1989 90%)

Av.doctor’s salary - $15/mth (if paid)Av. teacher’s salary - $50/mth (if paid)

Trans-Dniester Moldovan Republic

One of many pseudo-states in post-Soviet spacePopulation – 725000; Moldova – 4.5 millionDeclared independence – Spring 1992War June 1992 – about 4000 diedIgor Smirnov elected President 1992

– reelected with 97% of vote

Future?? – public opinion 1998Join Russia 27%Join Ukraine 16%Create federation with Moldova 56%

Bendery High Schoolers attending dance June 1992

Don Cossack volunteers from S. RussiaBendery June 1992

Cultural Headquartersof Don CossacksNovocherkassk, S. RussiaSeptember 1998

TMR militia “volunteers” June 1992(note hammer, sickle and red star)

TMR “territorial army” defending Bendery against Moldovan armyJune 1992

Refugees from Bendery in Tiraspol June 1992

Caught in the cross-fire Bendery June 1992

Refugees from Bendery fleeing from the fighting June 1992

14th Army tanks“commandeered” by TMR militiasJune 1992

Bendery June 1992

“He who lives by the sword will die by the sword”

TMR 1992 Memorialwith note of thanks to the “dead andliving defendersof Bendery”

Funeral of 35 TMR “defender volunteers” Bendery 1992

Funeral of 35 TMR “defender volunteers”Bendery 1992

Destruction ofBuildings inBenderyJune 1992

Russian 14th Army arrives to stop the fightingTMR June 1992

16th Century Turkish fortNear Tiraspol (TMR)On the border of the OttomanEmpire

“Glory to the Unions”Public (municipal) notices Tiraspol September 1998(Note the red star)

Farmers selling potatoes at open-air marketTiraspol, TMR September 1998

Main north-south highway in the TMR – note one lane is tarred.Background is the Dniester river valley and Moldova on west side September 1998

Lenin street (main thoroughfare) in TiraspolSeptember 1998

Communist Party headquarters Tiraspol (TMR) September 1998Note the Soviet flag

Memorial to the Soviet dead of World War II battles near Tiraspol

Center of Tiraspol, September 1998

Lenin is all over the worldTiraspol, TMR, September 1998

Wall (painted tiles) in Dubossary TMR October 1997Classic Soviet motifs

Duma (parliament) building Tiraspol, TMR September 1998(Note the statue of Lenin in front)

Dilapidated buildings and street seller Dubosarry TMROctober 1997

Buying petrol from roadside dealer (smuggler)TMR September 1998

50 rubles? – no! 50,000 rubles

TMR currency- zeros added because ofInflation greater than 1,000% per year

Constitution of TMR in 3 languages)

Postage stamps of the TMR

Geopolitical Considerations

Russia – solve the problem – create federation with Moldova- reduce subsidies – protect Russians

Ukraine – solve the border problem – integrate with Moldova does not want to be saddled with problem (e.g. troops)

Moldova – 2 wings a) nationalist – integrate fully with Moldova b) Communists (current govt) – federation possible

Romania – integrate fully with Moldova – protect Russians

TMR government – create a new identity – autonomous region with Moldova with own economic structures and politics

HOBBESIANS (anarchy reigns, laws/rules absent or flouted security guaranteed only by strong military, military can

win ‘hearts and minds” - Sheriff in Western town)

U.S. Military Spending

FY 2002 $399.1 billion3.3% of GDP

China FY2002 $47 billion 3.5-5% of GDP

KANTIANS (progressive trends, multilateralism, negotiation, trade/cooperation will improve relations, boycotts, World Court, cede

autonomy to multinational body – Bartender in Western town)

France 2.6% of GDPGermany 1.3% of GDPUnited Kingdom 2.3% (modified from Kagan “Power and Weakness”)

3 ways to build an EMPIRE

1. Classic empire – conquest, brute force, exploitation – e.g. BELGIUM

2. “Empire by invitation” (Lundestad) – invited to support regime against rebels, or neighbor (US during the Cold War – Greece, SE Asia, Middle East)

3. “Empire by hegemonic largesse” – economic aid, favorable trade relations, military hardware/sales, special financial arrangements, air protection

quid pro quo – bases, silence on abuses, access to resources, - US now in Central Asia and Caucasus/Caspian region

“Whoever rules the Persian Gulf/Caspian Sea region commands the world’s oilWhoever rules the world’s oil commands the world-economyWhoever rules the world-economy commands the world” (with apologies to Sir Halford J. Mackinder)

Percentage saying “definitely happen” A major war Harmful effects

b/w West and Islam of global warmingBrazil 37% 38%South Africa 28% 20%India 31% 37%France 17% 31%UK 18% 29%USA 18% 15%Japan 9% 36%Russia 14% 9%South Korea 22% 44%Germany 6% 29%Canada 14% 31%

Source: Ipsos-Reid.com (may 2002)

Play a major role in making the world saferUnited States United Nations

Brazil 43% 46%India 41% 33%S. Africa 37% 43%France 43% 45%S. Korea 33% 22%Canada 72% 52%USA 80% 46%UK 61% 50%Japan 29% 37%Germany 67% 40%Russia 45% 31%

Source: IPSOS-Reid.com (May 2002)

Themes of Geography 4712 – Fall 2005

1)What will replace the containment strategy? Is there a Bush Doctrine? Can there be in the post Cold War environment?

2) Are we firmly on the road to the “end of history? Is war passé?

3) Is globalization irreversible? Are opponents routed and disunited? Can challenges be successful?

4)What determines a country’s success or laggard status in the next century?

5)Will democratization trend reach 100%? What kinds of democracy?

6) Will there be a ‘clash of civilizations’, a continuation of balance of power (West versus rest?), or shifting criss-cross alliances, depending on circumstances?

7) Will the West stay together? Will Europe and US drift apart? Will the “Hobbsians” get fed up with the “Kantians”?

8) Will an “Alliance for Democracy” form that will expand NATO’s reach, aims and goals? e.g. as in Afghanistan now

9) Will protection of human rights move ahead of sovereignty in US and maybe UN policy? Will there be another Kosovo-like war?

10) Will states continue to form as a result of national liberation struggles? Will post-nationalist identities appear?Will pseudo-states keep forming?

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