probabilistic meshless methods for bayesian …gverdool/maxent2016/sp/cockayne...why do this? using...

Probabilistic Meshless Methods for Bayesian

Inverse Problems

Jon Cockayne

July 8, 2016

1

Co-Authors

Chris Oates Tim Sullivan Mark Girolami

2

What is PN?

Many problems in mathematics have no analytical solution, and

must be solved numerically.

In Probabilistic Numerics we phrase such problems as inference

problems and construct a probabilistic description of this error.

This is not a new idea1!

Lots of recent development on Integration, Optimization, ODEs,

PDEs... see http://probnum.org/

3

What is PN?

Many problems in mathematics have no analytical solution, and

must be solved numerically.

In Probabilistic Numerics we phrase such problems as inference

problems and construct a probabilistic description of this error.

This is not a new idea1!

Lots of recent development on Integration, Optimization, ODEs,

PDEs... see http://probnum.org/

2[Kadane, 1985, Diaconis, 1988, O’Hagan, 1992, Skilling, 1991]

3

What does this mean for PDEs?

A prototypical linear PDE. Given g , κ, b find u

−∇ · (κ(x)∇u(x)) = g(x) in D

u(x) = b(x) on ∂D

For general D, κ(x) this cannot be solved analytically.

The majority of PDE solvers produce an approximation like:

u(x) =N∑i=1

wiφi (x)

We want to quantify the error from finite N probabilistically.

4

What does this mean for PDEs?

A prototypical linear PDE. Given g , κ, b find u

−∇ · (κ(x)∇u(x)) = g(x) in D

u(x) = b(x) on ∂D

For general D, κ(x) this cannot be solved analytically.

The majority of PDE solvers produce an approximation like:

u(x) =N∑i=1

wiφi (x)

We want to quantify the error from finite N probabilistically.

4

What does this mean for PDEs?

Inverse Problem: Given partial information of g , b, u find κ

−∇ · (κ(x)∇u(x)) = g(x) in D

u(x) = b(x) on ∂D

Bayesian Inverse Problem:

κ ∼ Πκ Data u(xi ) = yi κ|y ∼ Πyκ

We want to account for an inaccurate forward solver in the inverse

problem.

5

What does this mean for PDEs?

Inverse Problem: Given partial information of g , b, u find κ

−∇ · (κ(x)∇u(x)) = g(x) in D

u(x) = b(x) on ∂D

Bayesian Inverse Problem:

κ ∼ Πκ Data u(xi ) = yi κ|y ∼ Πyκ

We want to account for an inaccurate forward solver in the inverse

problem.

5

Why do this?

Using an inaccurate forward solver in an inverse problem can

produce biased and overconfident posteriors.

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0θ

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16Probabilistic

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0θ

Standard mA = 4

mA = 8

mA = 16

mA = 32

mA = 64

Comparison of inverse problem posteriors produced using the

Probabilistic Meshless Method (PMM) vs. symmetric collocation.

6

Why do this?

Using an inaccurate forward solver in an inverse problem can

produce biased and overconfident posteriors.

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0θ

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16Probabilistic

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0θ

Standard mA = 4

mA = 8

mA = 16

mA = 32

mA = 64

Comparison of inverse problem posteriors produced using the

Probabilistic Meshless Method (PMM) vs. symmetric collocation.

6

Forward Problem

7

Abstract Formulation

Au(x) = g(x) in D

Forward inference procedure:

u ∼ Πu “Data” Au(xi ) = g(xi ) u|g ∼ Πgu

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Posterior for the forward problem

Use a Gaussian Process prior u ∼ Πu = GP(0, k). Assuming

linearity, the posterior Πgu is available in closed-form2.

Πgu ∼ GP(m1,Σ1)

m1(x) = AK (x ,X )[AAK (X ,X )

]−1 g

Σ1(x , x ′) = k(x , x ′)− AK (x ,X )[AAK (X ,X )

]−1AK (X , x ′)

A the adjoint of A

Observation: The mean function is the same as in symmetric

collocation!

2[Cockayne et al., 2016, Sarkka, 2011, Cialenco et al., 2012, Owhadi, 2014]

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Posterior for the forward problem

Use a Gaussian Process prior u ∼ Πu = GP(0, k). Assuming

linearity, the posterior Πgu is available in closed-form2.

Πgu ∼ GP(m1,Σ1)

m1(x) = AK (x ,X )[AAK (X ,X )

]−1 g

Σ1(x , x ′) = k(x , x ′)− AK (x ,X )[AAK (X ,X )

]−1AK (X , x ′)

A the adjoint of A

Observation: The mean function is the same as in symmetric

collocation!

2[Cockayne et al., 2016, Sarkka, 2011, Cialenco et al., 2012, Owhadi, 2014]

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Theoretical Results

Theorem (Forward Contraction)

For a ball Bε(u0) of radius ε centered on the true solution u0 of the

PDE, we have

1− Πgu [Bε(u0)] = O

(h2β−2ρ−d

ε

)

• h the fill distance

• β the smoothness of the prior

• ρ < β − d/2 the order of the PDE

• d the input dimension

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Toy Example

−∇2u(x) = g(x) x ∈ (0, 1)

u(x) = 0 x = 0, 1

To associate with the notation from before...

Πu ∼ GP(0, k(x , y))

A =d2

dx2A =

d2

dy2

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Forward problem: posterior samples

g(x) = sin(2πx)

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

x

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

u

Mean

Truth

Samples

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Forward problem: convergence

0 20 40 60 80 100

mA

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

‖µ−u‖

(a) Mean error from truth

0 20 40 60 80 100

mA

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

Tr(

Σ1)

(b) Trace of posterior covariance

Figure 2: Convergence

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Inverse Problem

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Recap

−∇ · (κ(x)∇u(x)) = g(x) in D

u(x) = b(x) on ∂D

Now we need to incorporate the forward posterior measure Πgu into

the posterior measure for the inverse problem, κ

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Incorporation of Forward Measure

Assuming the data in the inverse problem is:

yi = u(xi ) + ξi i = 1, . . . , n

ξ ∼ N(0, Γ)

implies the standard likelihood:

p(y |κ, u) ∼ N(y ; u, Γ)

But we don’t know u

Marginalise the forward posterior Πgu to obtain a “PN” likelihood:

pPN(y |κ) ∝∫

p(y |κ, u)dΠgu

∼ N(y ; m1, Γ + Σ1)

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Incorporation of Forward Measure

Assuming the data in the inverse problem is:

yi = u(xi ) + ξi i = 1, . . . , n

ξ ∼ N(0, Γ)

implies the standard likelihood:

p(y |κ, u) ∼ N(y ; u, Γ)

But we don’t know u

Marginalise the forward posterior Πgu to obtain a “PN” likelihood:

pPN(y |κ) ∝∫

p(y |κ, u)dΠgu

∼ N(y ; m1, Γ + Σ1)

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Inverse Contraction

Denote by Πyκ the posterior for κ from likelihood p, and by Πy

κ,PN

the posterior for κ from likelihood pPN.

Theorem (Inverse Contraction)

Assume Πyκ → δ(κ0) as n→∞.

Then Πyκ,PN → δ(κ0) provided

h = o(n−1/(β−ρ−d/2))

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Back to the Toy Example

−∇ · (κ∇u(x)) = sin(2πx) x ∈ (0, 1)

u(x) = 0 x = 0, 1

Infer κ ∈ R+; data generated for κ = 1 at x = 0.25, 0.75.

Corrupted with independent Gaussian noise ξ ∼ N(0, 0.012)

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Posteriors for κ

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0θ

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16Probabilistic

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0θ

Standard mA = 4

mA = 8

mA = 16

mA = 32

mA = 64

(a) Posterior Distributions for different numbers of design points.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70n

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

θ

Probabilistic

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70n

θ

Standard

(b) Convergence of posterior distributions with number of design points.

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Nonlinear Example: Steady-State

Allen–Cahn

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Allen–Cahn

A prototypical nonlinear model.

−δ∇2u(x) + δ−1(u(x)3 − u(x)) = 0 x ∈ (0, 1)2

u(x) = 1 x1 ∈ {0, 1} ; 0 < x2 < 1

u(x) = −1 x2 ∈ {0, 1} ; 0 < x1 < 1

Goal: infer δ from 16 equally spaced observations of u(x) in the

interior of the domain.

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.00.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0 Negative Stable

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.00.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0 Unstable

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.00.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0 Positive Stable

1.00

0.75

0.50

0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

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Allen–Cahn: Forward Solutions

Nonlinear PDE - non-GP posterior sampling schemes required, see

[Cockayne et al., 2016].

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.00.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0 Initial Design

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.00.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0 Optimal design

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

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Allen–Cahn: Inverse Problem

0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08

θ

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

PMM `= 5

PMM `= 10

PMM `= 20

PMM `= 40

PMM `= 80

(a) PMM

0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08

θ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

FEM 5x5

FEM 10x10

FEM 25x25

FEM 50x50

(b) FEA

Comparison of posteriors for δ with different solver resolutions,

when using the PMM forward solver with PN likelihood, vs. FEA

forward solver with Gaussian likelihood.

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Conclusions

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We have shown...

• How to build probability measures for the forward solution of

PDEs.

• How to use this to make rhobust inferences in PDE inverse

problems, even with inaccurate forward solvers.

Coming soon...

• Evolutionary problems (∂/∂t).

• More profound nonlinearities.

• Non-Gaussian priors.

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We have shown...

• How to build probability measures for the forward solution of

PDEs.

• How to use this to make rhobust inferences in PDE inverse

problems, even with inaccurate forward solvers.

Coming soon...

• Evolutionary problems (∂/∂t).

• More profound nonlinearities.

• Non-Gaussian priors.

25

I. Cialenco, G. E. Fasshauer, and Q. Ye. Approximation of stochastic partial differential equations by a kernel-based

collocation method. Int. J. Comput. Math., 89(18):2543–2561, 2012.

J. Cockayne, C. J. Oates, T. Sullivan, and M. Girolami. Probabilistic Meshless Methods for Partial Differential

Equations and Bayesian Inverse Problems. arXiv preprint arXiv:1605.07811, 2016.

P. Diaconis. Bayesian numerical analysis. Statistical decision theory and related topics IV, 1:163–175, 1988.

J. B. Kadane. Parallel and Sequential Computation: A Statistician’s view. Journal of Complexity, 1:256–263, 1985.

A. O’Hagan. Some Bayesian numerical analysis. Bayesian Statistics, 4:345–363, 1992.

H. Owhadi. Bayesian numerical homogenization. arXiv preprint arXiv:1406.6668, 2014.

S. Sarkka. Linear operators and stochastic partial differential equations in Gaussian process regression. In Artificial

Neural Networks and Machine Learning – ICANN 2011: 21st International Conference on Artificial Neural

Networks, Espoo, Finland, June 14-17, 2011, Proceedings, Part II, pages 151–158. Springer, 2011.

J. Skilling. Bayesian solution of ordinary differential equations. Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods, 50:

23–37, 1991.

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