potential synergies between gem and ccrif on seismic risk...
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Potential synergies between GEM and
CCRIF on seismic risk modelling and
the SRC/CCRIF accelerometer project
Simon Young
CEO, Caribbean Risk Managers Ltd
Facility Supervisor, CCRIF
CCRIF EQ Model - Hazards
• Create event set
– Historical catalogue statistically insufficient
– Use standard source/rate techniques (e.g.
Peterson et al. (2008) for USGS hazard
maps) to generate stochastic event catalogue
• PDE from 1990, with CMT information where
available
• GR b-value of 1 assumed for whole basin
• 5,000 year event set generated
– 11-km grid used for analysis
CCRIF EQ Model - Hazards
• Generate shaking footprint for each event
– Attenuation functions
• ShakeMap ‘small quake function’ for <5.2
• Transitions to depth-based functions, Boore,
Joyner and Fumal for shallow, then Youngs et al
for deeper (interface then intraslab >50km)
– Site amplification
• Use Wald and Allen (2007) as per ShakeMap:
elevation- and slope-based, use Caribbean
formulation (developed for Puerto Rico) and SRTM
90-m DEM
CCRIF EQ Model - Vulnerability
• Exposure derived from
– Economic data
– Population distribution (Landscan)
– Land use (MODIS)
• Damage function family from Global
Earthquake Safety Initiative (GESI) for
standard building types
Use by CCRIF
• National/Government loss event set used to generate country-specific and porfolio risk curves
• These in turn used to price coverage to countries and negotiate reinsurance
• Secondary outputs include hazard maps, country risk profiles
• Real-time model uses USGS hypocentre and CMT information if available (not necessary though) – RT model uses exact same algorithms as
probabilistic model
Future Developments
• 2013 EQ model upgrade:
– Comprehensive review of event set and
revision of generating algorithm/assumptions
– Better attenuation function selection by 3-d
structural segregation across region (e.g. EU-
CENTRE project for Eastern Caribbean)
– Improve curve-fitting algorithms for generating
loss curves
GEM Synergy
• CCRIF needs its own model because the real-time loss calculation is critical
• CCRIF modelling platform is flexible and can utilise externally-developed modules
• Key synergies we see include:
– Stochastic event-set generation techniques and Caribbean-specific assumptions
– Segmenting north and west Caribbean for attenuation functions
– Caribbean-specific damage functions
SRC/CCRIF Accelerometer Project
• CCRIF has agreed to co-fund SRC project which aims to install accelerometers across the region
• Current project has 12 instruments for EC, with CCRIF funding hardware and some installation support
• SRC is funding, in-kind, other aspects of project and also has funding for additional instruments in Trinidad and is seeking additional co-funding for wider roll-out
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