Potential synergies between GEM and

CCRIF on seismic risk modelling and

the SRC/CCRIF accelerometer project

Simon Young

CEO, Caribbean Risk Managers Ltd

Facility Supervisor, CCRIF

CCRIF EQ Model - Hazards

• Create event set

– Historical catalogue statistically insufficient

– Use standard source/rate techniques (e.g.

Peterson et al. (2008) for USGS hazard

maps) to generate stochastic event catalogue

• PDE from 1990, with CMT information where

available

• GR b-value of 1 assumed for whole basin

• 5,000 year event set generated

– 11-km grid used for analysis

Synthetic catalogue event density

CCRIF EQ Model - Hazards

• Generate shaking footprint for each event

– Attenuation functions

• ShakeMap ‘small quake function’ for <5.2

• Transitions to depth-based functions, Boore,

Joyner and Fumal for shallow, then Youngs et al

for deeper (interface then intraslab >50km)

– Site amplification

• Use Wald and Allen (2007) as per ShakeMap:

elevation- and slope-based, use Caribbean

formulation (developed for Puerto Rico) and SRTM

90-m DEM

475-yr PGA (g)

CCRIF EQ Model - Vulnerability

• Exposure derived from

– Economic data

– Population distribution (Landscan)

– Land use (MODIS)

• Damage function family from Global

Earthquake Safety Initiative (GESI) for

standard building types

Haiti Exposure

Use by CCRIF

• National/Government loss event set used to generate country-specific and porfolio risk curves

• These in turn used to price coverage to countries and negotiate reinsurance

• Secondary outputs include hazard maps, country risk profiles

• Real-time model uses USGS hypocentre and CMT information if available (not necessary though) – RT model uses exact same algorithms as

probabilistic model

Loss/Coverage Profile

Real-time Output

Future Developments

• 2013 EQ model upgrade:

– Comprehensive review of event set and

revision of generating algorithm/assumptions

– Better attenuation function selection by 3-d

structural segregation across region (e.g. EU-

CENTRE project for Eastern Caribbean)

– Improve curve-fitting algorithms for generating

loss curves

GEM Synergy

• CCRIF needs its own model because the real-time loss calculation is critical

• CCRIF modelling platform is flexible and can utilise externally-developed modules

• Key synergies we see include:

– Stochastic event-set generation techniques and Caribbean-specific assumptions

– Segmenting north and west Caribbean for attenuation functions

– Caribbean-specific damage functions

SRC/CCRIF Accelerometer Project

• CCRIF has agreed to co-fund SRC project which aims to install accelerometers across the region

• Current project has 12 instruments for EC, with CCRIF funding hardware and some installation support

• SRC is funding, in-kind, other aspects of project and also has funding for additional instruments in Trinidad and is seeking additional co-funding for wider roll-out