outlook overview - bw lpg · houston - chiba - ningbo - houston via panama canal lpg hfo compliant...

Outlook Overview

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LPG Exports

Exports via VLGC from

North America is

estimated to continue

growing.

Middle East growth rate

slows down due to

Iranian sanctions and

OPEC cuts.

LPG Imports

A new wave of PDH

plants come onstream in

China and South Korea

in 2019.

Retail demand from

emerging markets in

Asia such as India,

Indonesia remain strong.

Fleet supply

Order book stands at

14% of the total fleet.

85% of the newbuild

orders are backed by

traders/TCs.

Ton-mile

Ton-mile demand is

expected to increase

driven by sustained

export growth from the

U.S.

But increasing newbuild

activities could offset the

growing ton-mile

demand.

Freight rates

At current fleet supply

level, VLGC rate is

estimated to gradually

recover.

However, seasonality,

change of behaviors and

technology would make

the freight market less

optimistic.

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VLGC freight market in last 3 years

-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

Cash breakeven TCE

Source: Clarksons Historical, BW Analysis

For the past 3 years, TCE

has been mostly under

industry cash breakeven

levels at ~$25,000/day

Jan 2019 avg.TCE

= $15,000/day

FREIGHT RATES

4Source: IHS Waterborne, NGL Strategy Research

LPG exports

15% 19%24% 28% 32% 35% 38% 40%

51% 46%43%

43% 40%41% 40% 38%

34% 35% 33% 29% 28% 24% 23% 22%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F

North Americas Middle East Others

North America is estimated to

become the largest exporting region

Key Export Regions – Yearly Market Share Forecast

-

10

20

30

40

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F

Mill

ion

to

ns

North Americas Middle East

Key Export Regions – Yearly Forecast

North America exports continue

to grow, Middle East stabilises

LPG EXPORTS

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LPG imports

Source: IHS Waterborne

15.2

10.4 9.8

7.3 7.4

12.2

16.5

10.912.0

7.56.2

10.2

17.4

10.7

12.5

8.26.8

11.2

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

China Japan India Southeast Asia South Korea Europe

Millio

n t

on

s

2016 2017 2018

Stable

Stable

LPG IMPORTS

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Narrowing arbitrage from US to FE

Source: Argus, BW Analysis

Note: 2015 terminal cost is assumed based on average terminal cost in 2016, 2017 and 2018

($100)

($50)

-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

US

$/ton

US

$/to

n

Implied Arbitrage (RHS) FE Propane price US Propane price

Implied Arbitrage = FE propane CFR price (M+1) – Mount Belvieu FOB price – Terminal costs

FREIGHT RATES

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VLGC fleet development

Source: Clarksons Historical, BW Analysis

26

11

26

11 9

3 2

138

35

46

25

10

18 19

1

-1-2

-7 -6-4

-6-3

-2 -2

-5 -6-4

100 102 98

129137 140 140 137

152142

179

227

260 265277

292 293

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

(10)

-

10

20

30

40

50

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

Recycling Potential Recycled

To be delivered Delivered

Total numebr of VLGC by year-end (RHS)

Fleet size has almost doubled in 6 years from 2014 to 2019

14% of

orderbook

FLEET SUPPLY

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VLGC asset price

Source: Clarksons Historical, BW Analysis

$73

$47

$65

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80

$85

$90

$95

$100

Mill

ion

US

$

Newbuild VLGC delivered price Avg. Stock Market Price in NBE 5-year old NBE price

FLEET SUPPLY

Entry Barriers

BehaviorsTechnology & Innovation

Lower barrier

to entry

Increase efficiency

and transparency Charterers increase

their controls of ships

Disruptions in shipping

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Technology giants are eyeing at shipping industry

10

Technology

+

Tech giants with

high capitals

Increased

efficiency and

transparency in

shipping

Pressures on

margin

How BW LPG “Think Different”

LPG Propulsion

Fuel for the future

Smart ShipInnovating for the future

Product ServicesFully integrated product delivery

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No deviation

Deck tanks

Round voyage

Economical

Fuel flexibility

Clean

Green Efficient Flexible Approved

BW LPG is charting a sustainable future through LPG propulsion

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Cost Efficient Today & Tomorrow

Houston - Chiba - Ningbo - Houston via Panama Canal

LPG HFO Compliant Fuel

Assumptions

Fuel prices Distance: 20,534 nm

USD/mt 2019 YTFeb 2020E Speed: 16 knots, 5% sea margin

LPG 370 350

ULSHFO 480 450 Carrying capacity 49.370 mt

HFO 400 310 LPG available for fuel or sales 2.770 mt

LPG fuel autonomy @ 36.5 tons per day 76 days

Calculation includes Pilot Fuel consumption - Houston - Chiba - Ningbo - Houston (via Panama Canal) 57 days

Safety range 19 days

Source: Argus, TFS 12/2/2019

Fully ref Propane @ sg of 0.58

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2019 YTFeb 2020E

Fuel cost USD/day USD 6,600

per day savingsUSD 6,200

per day savings

LPG HFO Compliant Fuel

LPG HFO Compliant Fuel

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Embracing Innovation with

Smart Ships in Action

Aimed at turning ships into digital enterprises,

the smart ship project connects and controls

the entire ecosystem within the vessel and

transmits data to a digital cloud for remote

monitoring and greater business value.

Key Advantages

Improved furl consumption

Enhanced operation efficiency

Increased compliance

Improved crew safety

Reduced risk of collisions

Lower manpower needs

Lower OPEX expenses

Reduced injury & cargo loss claims

Reduced human error with greater

automation

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Commercial Services At a Glance

Approx. USD 2 Billion invested in VLGC’s

49 vessels, average age of owned VLGCs at 7 years (Global average age 9 years)

Entered the gas transportation business in 1978 and have grown from 6 to 47 VLGCs

Flexible Chartering SolutionsCoA / Time Charter, SPOT, Storage / STS

Assets

Fleet

History

Chartering

Projects

24/7 Customer services

Dedicated team

bringing together

over 100 years of

market experience

Sale and purchase, newbuilding, adjacent segments

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Product Services Team

A team of 5 dedicated

professionals with over 60 years

of LPG and trading experience

in blue chip organizations

Approx. USD 2 Billion invested

in VLGC’s

Transported over 13 Million tons of LPG in 2018

State of the art systems to support cargo delivery

A low-risk and fully-integrated product delivery service to customers

Assets

Experience

Systems

Service

Trade FinanceSupport from BNP Paribas

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Projects

Sale and

PurchaseChartering

Technical

Operations

Enhancing Our

Value PropositionProviding integrated product and shipping solutions

Product

Services

OSLOChartering

Technical & Operations

SINGAPOREChartering

Product Services

Projects

Technical & Operations

HOUSTONTechnical & Operations

Product Services : productservices@bwlpg.com

Chartering : chartering@bwlpg.com

Projects : projects@bwlpg.com

Fleet Technical : fleettech@bwlpg.com

Operations : fleetops@bwlpg.com

Contact Us

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https://www.bwlpg.com/investor-centre

THANK YOU

For more information please visit our official website for

BW LPG business news, financial results, presentations,

company reports and the latest share price.

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