operational 2-h thunderstorm guidance fcsts to 24 hrs on 20-km grid jess charba fred samplatsky...

OPERATIONAL 2-H THUNDERSTORM

GUIDANCE FCSTS TO 24 HRS ON 20-KM GRID

JESS CHARBAJESS CHARBA

FRED SAMPLATSKYFRED SAMPLATSKY

METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY OST / NWS / NOAAOST / NWS / NOAA

Details = http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154173.pdf

OUTLINEOUTLINE

TSTM FCST PRODUCTSTSTM FCST PRODUCTS

STATISTICAL MODELSTATISTICAL MODEL

CASE STUDIESCASE STUDIES

FCST PERFORMANCE SCORESFCST PERFORMANCE SCORES

OPERATIONAL ASPECTSOPERATIONAL ASPECTS

COMMENTSCOMMENTS

TSTM FCST PRODUCTSTSTM FCST PRODUCTS

2- H PROB. AND CAT. FCSTS TO 25 HRS 2- H PROB. AND CAT. FCSTS TO 25 HRS

HOURLY ISSUANCES HOURLY ISSUANCES

20-KM GRID (NDFD GRID COMPATIBLE) 20-KM GRID (NDFD GRID COMPATIBLE)

CONUS COVERAGECONUS COVERAGE

TAILORED FOR AVIATION APPL.TAILORED FOR AVIATION APPL.

STATISTICAL MODELSTATISTICAL MODEL

REGIONALIZED REGRESSION REGIONALIZED REGRESSION EQUATIONS ON 20-KM GRIDEQUATIONS ON 20-KM GRID

MULTIPLE PREDICTOR INPUTSMULTIPLE PREDICTOR INPUTS

REGIONSREGIONS

PREDICTOR INPUTSPREDICTOR INPUTS

CURRENT CTG LIGHTNING STRIKESCURRENT CTG LIGHTNING STRIKES

CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITYCURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY

CURRENT SURFACE OBSCURRENT SURFACE OBS

GFS MOS THUNDERSTORM PROB.GFS MOS THUNDERSTORM PROB.

GFS OUTPUT (SUPPLEMENTAL)GFS OUTPUT (SUPPLEMENTAL)

THUNDERSTORM CLIMATOLOGYTHUNDERSTORM CLIMATOLOGY

TOPOGRAPHYTOPOGRAPHY

DISCRETE AND OVERLAPPING REGIONS

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

DISCRETE REGIONSDISCRETE REGIONS OVERLAPPING REGIONS & OVERLAPPING REGIONS & BOUNDARY SMOOTHINGBOUNDARY SMOOTHING

9-H TSTM PROB (%) FROM 0900 UTC 18 MAR 20089-H TSTM PROB (%) FROM 0900 UTC 18 MAR 2008

OVERLAP REGIONS (OVLP) AND BOUND. SMOOTHING (BS) OVERLAP REGIONS (OVLP) AND BOUND. SMOOTHING (BS) HAD NO AFFECT ON SKILLHAD NO AFFECT ON SKILL

FORECAST PERFORMANCEFORECAST PERFORMANCE

CASE STUDIESCASE STUDIES

FROM 2008FROM 2008

6-H PROB (%) FROM 15Z 3-H PROB (%) FROM 18Z

NO. LTG STRK 19-21Z

8 JUNE 2008

8-9 JUNE 2008

9-H PROB (%) FROM 15Z 3-H PROB (%) FROM 21Z

NO. LTG STRK 22-00Z

9 JUNE 2008

6-H PROB (%) FROM 03Z 3-H PROB (%) FROM 06Z

NO. LTG STRK 07-09Z

1 SEPTEMBER 2008

3-H PROB (%) FROM 12Z NO. LTG STRK 13-15Z

RADAR EST. PRECIP (”) 12-18Z

X

HUR. GUSTAV

FORECAST PERFORMANCEFORECAST PERFORMANCE

SCORES FROM 0900 UTC CYC.SCORES FROM 0900 UTC CYC.

FROM 2007-08FROM 2007-08

PROBABILITY FORECASTSPROBABILITY FORECASTS

0900 UTC 2007-080900 UTC 2007-08

CATEGORICAL FORECASTSCATEGORICAL FORECASTS

0900 UTC 2007-080900 UTC 2007-08

OPERATIONAL ASPECTSOPERATIONAL ASPECTS

24 CYCLES DAILY (YEAR ROUND)24 CYCLES DAILY (YEAR ROUND)

AVAILABLE TO ENTIRE WEATHER AVAILABLE TO ENTIRE WEATHER ENTERPRISE AND WORLD WIDE WEBENTERPRISE AND WORLD WIDE WEB

PRODUCTS TAILORED BY INDIVIDUAL PRODUCTS TAILORED BY INDIVIDUAL USERSUSERS

LAMP – CCFP HYBRID PRODUCT

COMMENTSCOMMENTS

LAMP THUNDERSTORM PROGRAM FULLY LAMP THUNDERSTORM PROGRAM FULLY IMPLEMENTEDIMPLEMENTED

PRODUCTS WELL RECEIVED, ESP. BY PRODUCTS WELL RECEIVED, ESP. BY AVIATION WEATHER USERSAVIATION WEATHER USERS

THE ENDTHE END