operational 2-h thunderstorm guidance fcsts to 24 hrs on 20-km grid jess charba fred samplatsky...
TRANSCRIPT
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OPERATIONAL 2-H THUNDERSTORM
GUIDANCE FCSTS TO 24 HRS ON 20-KM GRID
JESS CHARBAJESS CHARBA
FRED SAMPLATSKYFRED SAMPLATSKY
METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY METEOROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT LABORATORY OST / NWS / NOAAOST / NWS / NOAA
Details = http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/154173.pdf
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OUTLINEOUTLINE
TSTM FCST PRODUCTSTSTM FCST PRODUCTS
STATISTICAL MODELSTATISTICAL MODEL
CASE STUDIESCASE STUDIES
FCST PERFORMANCE SCORESFCST PERFORMANCE SCORES
OPERATIONAL ASPECTSOPERATIONAL ASPECTS
COMMENTSCOMMENTS
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TSTM FCST PRODUCTSTSTM FCST PRODUCTS
2- H PROB. AND CAT. FCSTS TO 25 HRS 2- H PROB. AND CAT. FCSTS TO 25 HRS
HOURLY ISSUANCES HOURLY ISSUANCES
20-KM GRID (NDFD GRID COMPATIBLE) 20-KM GRID (NDFD GRID COMPATIBLE)
CONUS COVERAGECONUS COVERAGE
TAILORED FOR AVIATION APPL.TAILORED FOR AVIATION APPL.
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STATISTICAL MODELSTATISTICAL MODEL
REGIONALIZED REGRESSION REGIONALIZED REGRESSION EQUATIONS ON 20-KM GRIDEQUATIONS ON 20-KM GRID
MULTIPLE PREDICTOR INPUTSMULTIPLE PREDICTOR INPUTS
REGIONSREGIONS
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PREDICTOR INPUTSPREDICTOR INPUTS
CURRENT CTG LIGHTNING STRIKESCURRENT CTG LIGHTNING STRIKES
CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITYCURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY
CURRENT SURFACE OBSCURRENT SURFACE OBS
GFS MOS THUNDERSTORM PROB.GFS MOS THUNDERSTORM PROB.
GFS OUTPUT (SUPPLEMENTAL)GFS OUTPUT (SUPPLEMENTAL)
THUNDERSTORM CLIMATOLOGYTHUNDERSTORM CLIMATOLOGY
TOPOGRAPHYTOPOGRAPHY
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DISCRETE AND OVERLAPPING REGIONS
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DISCRETE REGIONSDISCRETE REGIONS OVERLAPPING REGIONS & OVERLAPPING REGIONS & BOUNDARY SMOOTHINGBOUNDARY SMOOTHING
9-H TSTM PROB (%) FROM 0900 UTC 18 MAR 20089-H TSTM PROB (%) FROM 0900 UTC 18 MAR 2008
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OVERLAP REGIONS (OVLP) AND BOUND. SMOOTHING (BS) OVERLAP REGIONS (OVLP) AND BOUND. SMOOTHING (BS) HAD NO AFFECT ON SKILLHAD NO AFFECT ON SKILL
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FORECAST PERFORMANCEFORECAST PERFORMANCE
CASE STUDIESCASE STUDIES
FROM 2008FROM 2008
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6-H PROB (%) FROM 15Z 3-H PROB (%) FROM 18Z
NO. LTG STRK 19-21Z
8 JUNE 2008
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8-9 JUNE 2008
9-H PROB (%) FROM 15Z 3-H PROB (%) FROM 21Z
NO. LTG STRK 22-00Z
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9 JUNE 2008
6-H PROB (%) FROM 03Z 3-H PROB (%) FROM 06Z
NO. LTG STRK 07-09Z
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1 SEPTEMBER 2008
3-H PROB (%) FROM 12Z NO. LTG STRK 13-15Z
RADAR EST. PRECIP (”) 12-18Z
X
HUR. GUSTAV
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FORECAST PERFORMANCEFORECAST PERFORMANCE
SCORES FROM 0900 UTC CYC.SCORES FROM 0900 UTC CYC.
FROM 2007-08FROM 2007-08
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PROBABILITY FORECASTSPROBABILITY FORECASTS
0900 UTC 2007-080900 UTC 2007-08
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CATEGORICAL FORECASTSCATEGORICAL FORECASTS
0900 UTC 2007-080900 UTC 2007-08
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OPERATIONAL ASPECTSOPERATIONAL ASPECTS
24 CYCLES DAILY (YEAR ROUND)24 CYCLES DAILY (YEAR ROUND)
AVAILABLE TO ENTIRE WEATHER AVAILABLE TO ENTIRE WEATHER ENTERPRISE AND WORLD WIDE WEBENTERPRISE AND WORLD WIDE WEB
PRODUCTS TAILORED BY INDIVIDUAL PRODUCTS TAILORED BY INDIVIDUAL USERSUSERS
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LAMP – CCFP HYBRID PRODUCT
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COMMENTSCOMMENTS
LAMP THUNDERSTORM PROGRAM FULLY LAMP THUNDERSTORM PROGRAM FULLY IMPLEMENTEDIMPLEMENTED
PRODUCTS WELL RECEIVED, ESP. BY PRODUCTS WELL RECEIVED, ESP. BY AVIATION WEATHER USERSAVIATION WEATHER USERS
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THE ENDTHE END