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NWS
NOAA“AZ NIDIS” – A Pilot Project
NIDIS
National Integrated Drought Information System
NWS
NOAABackground
WGA (Western Governors Association) – Recommendations
Integrate All Levels of Drought Information
NOAA – Named Lead Agency
Near Term Opportunities Were Defined
NWS
NOAA
NOAA-NWS-Western Region3/8/2006 Meeting-SLC,Utah
NOAA-NCTP Chet KoblinskyNOAA-NCDC Tom KarlNOAA-OAR Randy DoleNOAA-NWS/OHD Gary CarterNOAA-NWS/CPC Jim LaverNOAA-NWS/CSD Bob Livezey
Background
Birth of “Az NIDIS – A Pilot ProjectNID
IS
NWS
NOAAGoals
Phase 1Expand Observation NetworkExpand Hydrologic Modeling CapabilitiesDerive Products Tailored to Drought
Phase 2Outreach/EducationEvaluationInterface State/Local Drought efforts to NIDIS
NWS
NOAABenefits
Increase Ability to Describe/Detect Drought Enhance Ability to Respond to DroughtOn Appropriate Scales
Assist ‘National’ NIDIS in Refining Requirements, Program Direction,Concept of Operations
Provide Direction on How Current State/LocalEfforts in Arizona Interface to NIDIS
NWS
NOAAComponents
Phase 1(1) NERON (including soil moisture sensors)(2) Soil Moisture Grids (observed/future)(3) Water Supply Forecasting (4) Long Range Streamflow (ESP,Low Flows)Phase 2(5) Interface AZFW Database(6) Interface National Web Portal(7) Outreach/Education(8) Evaluation
NWS
NOAAComponent(1): NERON
First InstallationsHistorical Climate Network (HCN)17 Locations in AZ
Secure Funding for Soil Moisture Sensors HCN Sites
Add additional sites in Salt/Verde – Finer Scale Modelling
May 11, 2006
6
Precipitation measurements in Wind Shield
3 platinum resistance thermometers in 1 aspirated shield (includes backup fan)
Hourly GOES communication
MARCH 2006
VALLEYHEAD, NORTHERN ALABAMA (legacy site < 1 mile)
Data Logger
No: Wind Speed, Ground Temperature, Solar Radiation, Soil Moisture Design flexible to easily accommodate additional instruments
NERON Site
Average Footprint: 16x20 FT
NWS
NOAAComponent(1): NERON
Baseline Site: Valleyhead, Northern Alabama
NWS
NOAAComponent(2): Soil Moisture Grids
Spatial Scale4km (1km)
All of Arizona
Soil MoistureAt Various Depths
Hourly PrecipitationInput
Calibrated WithObserved/NERONSites
SALT RIVER
VERDE RIVER
Soil Moisture Grid – Model Calibrated With Observed Soil Moisture
Upper
Lower
Soil MoistureProfiles
NWS
NOAAComponent(2): Soil Moisture Profiles
Computed and Observed Soil Moisture: 0-25cm Depth
Computed and Observed Soil Moisture: 25-75cm Depth
NWS
NOAAComponent(2): Soil Moisture Grids
NWS HL-RDHM Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model
Runs over the entire State of Arizona
Model is driven by gridded precipitation computed from theMulti-Precipitation-Estimator (MPE) on hourly time step
MPE uses all observed rain gages (800+), NEXRAD RADARComputed estimates, Satellite Estimates (data void areas)
Model executed at least 3 times per day, 365 days/yearBy the NOAA-NWS-Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC)
NWS
NOAAComponent(2): Soil Moisture Grids
Distributed Soil MoistureHourly Time StepCalibrated with NERON-Soil Moisture Sites
Hourly PrecipitationLarge Scale
Hourly PrecipitationBlow Up/Salt-Verde
Display Soil MoistureInput to Soil Moisture Model Calibrated withObserved Soil Moisture
Multi-Precipitation-Estimator
Includes all of AZ
Hourly PrecipitationGrids
Uses all ObservedPrecipitation GagesCombined withNEXRAD & Satellite Estimates
Used as Input toThe HL-RDHM
Soil moisture for top 10 cm layer April 07, 2002 00z
NWS
NOAAComponent(2): Soil Moisture Grids
Example of Soil moisture forThe top 10 CM
Other layers or Combination ofLayers can be Calculated bothIn values and Percents
Historical valuesCan also be Represented andCompared Against
NWS
NOAAComponent(2): Soil Moisture Grids
‘Forecasts’ of Gridded Soil Moisture
Forecasts can be out to a year.
Most likely when a ‘strong’ enso or other climate signal is occuring or expected.
Component(3): Water Supply
NWS
NOAAComponent(4): Expand ESP Use
NDTO(1)Number of Days to Get above a Value
NDTO(2)Number of Days to Get Below a Value
NDIS(1)Number of Days Greater than a Value
NDIS(2)Number of Days Less Than a Value
NWS
NOAAMilestones
2006Draft Plan WrittenNERON Sites IdentifiedSite Surveys CompletedSecure Funding for soil-moisture-sensorsInstallation Begins
HL-RHDM setup and running for AZ at CBRFC2007
NERON Installation continuesProduced Initial soil-moisture productsExpand ESP Forecasts (Low Flow, # days) Interface to AFWSInterface to Local Web PortalInterface to National Web PortalBegin Outreach
2008New Web Tools Available on Web PortalOutreach ContinuingEvaluation
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