NWS

NOAA“AZ NIDIS” – A Pilot Project

NIDIS

National Integrated Drought Information System

NWS

NOAABackground

WGA (Western Governors Association) – Recommendations

Integrate All Levels of Drought Information

NOAA – Named Lead Agency

Near Term Opportunities Were Defined

NWS

NOAA

NOAA-NWS-Western Region3/8/2006 Meeting-SLC,Utah

NOAA-NCTP Chet KoblinskyNOAA-NCDC Tom KarlNOAA-OAR Randy DoleNOAA-NWS/OHD Gary CarterNOAA-NWS/CPC Jim LaverNOAA-NWS/CSD Bob Livezey

Background

Birth of “Az NIDIS – A Pilot ProjectNID

IS

NWS

NOAAGoals

Phase 1Expand Observation NetworkExpand Hydrologic Modeling CapabilitiesDerive Products Tailored to Drought

Phase 2Outreach/EducationEvaluationInterface State/Local Drought efforts to NIDIS

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NOAABenefits

Increase Ability to Describe/Detect Drought Enhance Ability to Respond to DroughtOn Appropriate Scales

Assist ‘National’ NIDIS in Refining Requirements, Program Direction,Concept of Operations

Provide Direction on How Current State/LocalEfforts in Arizona Interface to NIDIS

NWS

NOAAComponents

Phase 1(1) NERON (including soil moisture sensors)(2) Soil Moisture Grids (observed/future)(3) Water Supply Forecasting (4) Long Range Streamflow (ESP,Low Flows)Phase 2(5) Interface AZFW Database(6) Interface National Web Portal(7) Outreach/Education(8) Evaluation

NWS

NOAAComponent(1): NERON

First InstallationsHistorical Climate Network (HCN)17 Locations in AZ

Secure Funding for Soil Moisture Sensors HCN Sites

Add additional sites in Salt/Verde – Finer Scale Modelling

May 11, 2006

6

Precipitation measurements in Wind Shield

3 platinum resistance thermometers in 1 aspirated shield (includes backup fan)

Hourly GOES communication

MARCH 2006

VALLEYHEAD, NORTHERN ALABAMA (legacy site < 1 mile)

Data Logger

No: Wind Speed, Ground Temperature, Solar Radiation, Soil Moisture Design flexible to easily accommodate additional instruments

NERON Site

Average Footprint: 16x20 FT

NWS

NOAAComponent(1): NERON

Baseline Site: Valleyhead, Northern Alabama

NWS

NOAAComponent(2): Soil Moisture Grids

Spatial Scale4km (1km)

All of Arizona

Soil MoistureAt Various Depths

Hourly PrecipitationInput

Calibrated WithObserved/NERONSites

SALT RIVER

VERDE RIVER

Soil Moisture Grid – Model Calibrated With Observed Soil Moisture

Upper

Lower

Soil MoistureProfiles

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NOAAComponent(2): Soil Moisture Profiles

Computed and Observed Soil Moisture: 0-25cm Depth

Computed and Observed Soil Moisture: 25-75cm Depth

NWS

NOAAComponent(2): Soil Moisture Grids

NWS HL-RDHM Hydrology Laboratory Research Distributed Hydrologic Model

Runs over the entire State of Arizona

Model is driven by gridded precipitation computed from theMulti-Precipitation-Estimator (MPE) on hourly time step

MPE uses all observed rain gages (800+), NEXRAD RADARComputed estimates, Satellite Estimates (data void areas)

Model executed at least 3 times per day, 365 days/yearBy the NOAA-NWS-Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC)

NWS

NOAAComponent(2): Soil Moisture Grids

Distributed Soil MoistureHourly Time StepCalibrated with NERON-Soil Moisture Sites

Hourly PrecipitationLarge Scale

Hourly PrecipitationBlow Up/Salt-Verde

Display Soil MoistureInput to Soil Moisture Model Calibrated withObserved Soil Moisture

Multi-Precipitation-Estimator

Includes all of AZ

Hourly PrecipitationGrids

Uses all ObservedPrecipitation GagesCombined withNEXRAD & Satellite Estimates

Used as Input toThe HL-RDHM

Soil moisture for top 10 cm layer April 07, 2002 00z

NWS

NOAAComponent(2): Soil Moisture Grids

Example of Soil moisture forThe top 10 CM

Other layers or Combination ofLayers can be Calculated bothIn values and Percents

Historical valuesCan also be Represented andCompared Against

NWS

NOAAComponent(2): Soil Moisture Grids

‘Forecasts’ of Gridded Soil Moisture

Forecasts can be out to a year.

Most likely when a ‘strong’ enso or other climate signal is occuring or expected.

Component(3): Water Supply

NWS

NOAAComponent(4): Expand ESP Use

NDTO(1)Number of Days to Get above a Value

NDTO(2)Number of Days to Get Below a Value

NDIS(1)Number of Days Greater than a Value

NDIS(2)Number of Days Less Than a Value

NWS

NOAAMilestones

2006Draft Plan WrittenNERON Sites IdentifiedSite Surveys CompletedSecure Funding for soil-moisture-sensorsInstallation Begins

HL-RHDM setup and running for AZ at CBRFC2007

NERON Installation continuesProduced Initial soil-moisture productsExpand ESP Forecasts (Low Flow, # days) Interface to AFWSInterface to Local Web PortalInterface to National Web PortalBegin Outreach

2008New Web Tools Available on Web PortalOutreach ContinuingEvaluation