nuclear power and climate change adriana mugnatto-hamu adriana@danforthgreens.ca 416-273-8247...

Nuclear Powerand Climate Change

Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu

adriana@danforthgreens.ca416-273-8247

Climate Change Conference 20102010 August 14

Problems Joshua highlightedwith nuclear power:

1. Long construction times

2. Declining ore grades

Lifecycle CO2e of Electricity SourcesLow Estimate High EstimateReproduced with permission.

http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/renew_vs_nuclear.html

Time Between Planning & Operation

Nuclear: 10 - 19 y (life 40 y)Site permit: 3.5 - 6 yConstruction permit approval and issue 2.5 - 4 yConstruction time 4 - 9 years

(Average today in China = 7.1 years)

Hydroelectric: 8 - 16 y (life 80 y)Coal-CCS: 6 - 11 y (life 35 y)Geothermal: 3 - 6 y (life 35 y)Ethanol: 2 - 5 y (life 40 y)CSP: 2 - 5 y (life 30 y)Solar-PV: 2 - 5 y (life 30 y)Wave: 2 - 5 y (life 15 y)Tidal: 2 - 5 y (life 15 y)Wind: 2 - 5 y (life 30 y)

Reproduced with permission.http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/renew_vs_nuclear.html

CO2e From Current Power Mixdue to Planning-to-Operation Delays,

Relative to WindLow Estimate High Estimate

Reproduced with permission.http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/renew_vs_nuclear.html

Nuclear limitations for load shifting

• no reactor on the planet can drop outputmore than 50% below the nominal

• ability to vary outputdecreases over the fuel cycle

• varying output by limiting the reaction increases risk ...

• ... and decreases reactor lifespan• reducing output below the nominal

for significant amounts of timeincreases the cost of nuclear per kilowatt hour

A coal plant must be running at capacity when it is replaced by a nuclear plant

Nuclear reactors reduce emissions if

• they replace existing reactorsat the end of their lives

or

• they can be a small part of a suite of tactics to reduce many coal plants

Total CO2e of Electricity Sources

Low Estimate High EstimateReproduced with permission.http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/renew_vs_nuclear.html

Reproduced with permission.http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/renew_vs_nuclear.html

Reproduced with permission.R. Kenny, C. Law, J.M. Pearce, Towards real energy economics: Energy policy driven by life-cycle carbon emission,

Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 4, April 2010, Pages 1969-1978, ISSN 0301-4215, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.078.(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4Y0K9WG-7/2/20bfb54fda02e08876ec8f8fcb7e48bc)

Reproduced with permission.R. Kenny, C. Law, J.M. Pearce, Towards real energy economics: Energy policy driven by life-cycle carbon emission,

Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 4, April 2010, Pages 1969-1978, ISSN 0301-4215, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.078.(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4Y0K9WG-7/2/20bfb54fda02e08876ec8f8fcb7e48bc)

Reproduced with permission.R. Kenny, C. Law, J.M. Pearce, Towards real energy economics: Energy policy driven by life-cycle carbon emission,

Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 4, April 2010, Pages 1969-1978, ISSN 0301-4215, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.078.(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4Y0K9WG-7/2/20bfb54fda02e08876ec8f8fcb7e48bc)

But what about…

• Footprint• Transition• Reliability• Cost

But what about…

• Footprint• Transition• Reliability• Cost

"The amounts of fuel and waste that must be dealt with at a nuclear reactor can be up to one million times smaller than the amounts of fuel and waste at

an equivalent fossil-fuel power station."

Area to Power 100% ofU.S. Onroad Vehicles

Cellulosic E85

4.7-35.4% of US

Solar PV-BEV0.077-0.18%

Corn E859.8-17.6% of

US

Wind-BEVFootprint 1-2.8

km2

Turbine spacing 0.35-0.7% of US

Geoth BEV0.006-0.008%

Nuclear-BEV0.05-0.062%Footprint 33% of total; the rest is buffer

Reproduced with permission.http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/renew_vs_nuclear.html

But what about…

• Footprint• Transition• Reliability• Cost

But what about…

• Footprint• Transition• Reliability• Cost

1. The wind doesn't always blow and the sun doesn't always shinewhen you need them to

2. Nuclear output is steady

Meeting peak demand

• Solar power

• Storage

• Biofuels

• Carbon capture

• Hydro power

• Load shifting

But what about…

• Footprint• Transition• Reliability• Cost

Reproduced with permission.R. Kenny, C. Law, J.M. Pearce, Towards real energy economics: Energy policy driven by life-cycle carbon emission,

Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 4, April 2010, Pages 1969-1978, ISSN 0301-4215, DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.078.(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4Y0K9WG-7/2/20bfb54fda02e08876ec8f8fcb7e48bc)

Matching Hourly Summer 2020 Electricity Demand with 100% Renewables

(No Change in Hydro)Total Demand

Geothermal

Wind

Solar

Hydro