noaa/oar contributions to natural disaster reductions and risk assessments john gaynor office of...
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NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments
John Gaynor
Office of Weather and Air Quality Research And
USWRP Interagency Program Office
Silver Spring, MD
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments
Background
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments
Background
• Research applied to NOAA’s environmental forecasting and understanding mission.
• Research to improve forecasts of hazardous weather including hurricanes, tornados, heavy (flood producing) precipitation.
• Much of research under the USWRP (NOAA, NSF, NASA, DoD) directed toward forecast improvements in:– Hurricane landfall track and intensity
– Hurricane inland precipitation
– Precipitation leading to floods
• Effects of storm surges and high winds.
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk AssessmentsBackground (Cont.)
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk AssessmentsBackground (Cont.)
• Research and modeling leading to volcanic and wildfire plume forecasting.
• Seasonal and interannual forecasts of extreme weather events.
• Forecasts of geomagnetic storms.
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments
Severe Weather
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments
Severe Weather
• Public education and outreach from NSSL on tornado, lightning and severe storm safety.
• Severe winter California coastal storm and coastal flooding potential information and education to:– Emergency managers
– Water managers
– Fishing industry
– Weather Service Forecast Offices
– Media
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments
Hurricanes and Severe East Coast Storms
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments
Hurricanes and Severe East Coast Storms
• Provision of short-term forecasts of hurricane surface winds at landfall and surface analysis soon after landfall for:– Emergency managers
– Insurance industry
– General public/media
• Informal public education and awareness campaign of hurricane threat (Florida).
• Research by Sea Grant on optimum beach and building design and construction to minimize storm surge or tide beach erosion and building damage. Partnering with state and local building authorities.
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments
Climate and Space Weather
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments
Climate and Space Weather
• Advising western water managers on seasonal precipitation outlooks.
• Providing geomagnetic storm forecasts and forecast interpretation to vulnerable utility and communications companies.
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments
Needs
NOAA/OAR Contributions to Natural Disaster Reductions and Risk Assessments
Needs
NOAA Research needs assistance with interfacing and partnering with hazards practitioners to transition research
results into the operations/service community.
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