niel bowerman - why & how we should prioritise - ea global melbourne 2015

Why and how to prioritise

Niel BowermanFuture of Humanity InstituteCo-founder, Centre for Effective Altruism

1 May 2023

What is effective altruism?

1. Figure out how to do the most good

2. Do it!

Why should we prioritise?

- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)

Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)

Treatment of HIV/AIDS

Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

Antiretroviral therapy

Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma

- 2 4 6 8 10

Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)

Treatment of HIV/AIDS

Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)

Antiretroviral therapy

Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma

- 2 4 6 8 10

Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)

Treatment of HIV/AIDS

Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)

Antiretroviral therapy

Prevention of transmission during pregnancy

Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma

Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)

- 10 20

Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)Cost-effectiveness (QALYs/£1,000)

Treatment of HIV/AIDS

Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma

Antiretroviral therapy

Prevention of transmission during pregnancy

Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)

- 10 20

Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)

Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma

Antiretroviral therapy

Distribution of condoms

Prevention of transmission during pregnancy

Treatment of HIV/AIDS

Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)

- 20 40

Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)

Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma

Antiretroviral therapy

Distribution of condoms

Prevention of transmission during pregnancy

Treatment of HIV/AIDS

Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)

- 20 40

Cost-effectiveness (QALYs / £1,000)

Treatment of Kaposi’s Sarcoma

Antiretroviral therapy

Distribution of condoms

Prevention of transmission during pregnancy

Education for high-risk groups

Treatment of HIV/AIDS

Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/£1,000)

Source: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries Report (2nd Edition)

Global health interventions

Cost-effectiveness (DALYs/$1,000)

Boosting school attendance

Menstrual cups for teengage girls (Nepal)

Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India)

Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya)

Sponsoring a child (Kenya)

Free school uniforms (Kenya)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

0

0

0.16875

0.18

0.44375

Additional years in school per £100

Menstrual cups for teengage girls (Nepal)

Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India)

Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya)

Sponsoring a child (Kenya)

Free school uniforms (Kenya)

Deworming in primary schools (Kenya)

Information on returns to education for parents (Madagascar)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

0

0

0.16875

0.18

0.44375

8.6875

12.9375

Additional years in school per £100

Menstrual cups for teengage girls (Nepal)

Remedial tutoring by volunteers (India)

Merit scholarships for girls (Kenya)

Sponsoring a child (Kenya)

Free school uniforms (Kenya)

Deworming in primary schools (Kenya)

Information on returns to education for parents (Madagascar)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

0

0

0.16875

0.18

0.44375

8.6875

12.9375

Additional years in school per £100

Climate change

Tonnes of CO2eq/£100

Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism

10:10 Campaign

Encourage vegetarianism

Buy permits on the carbon market

Carbon offsetting

Heat exchangers in dialysis machines

Train not plane to Naples

0 5 10 15 20 25

20

16

7

5

1

1

Offset HFCs

10:10 Campaign

Encourage vegetarianism

Buy permits on the carbon market

Carbon offsetting

Heat exchangers in dialysis machines

Train not plane to Naples

0 200 400 600 800

20

16

6.66666666666667

5

1

0.6

Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism

800

Tonnes of CO2eq/£100

Offset HFCs

10:10 Campaign

Encourage vegetarianism

Buy permits on the carbon market

Carbon offsetting

Heat exchangers in dialysis machines

Train not plane to Naples

0 200 400 600 800

20

16

6.66666666666667

5

1

0.6

Sources: Carbon Point; JP Morgan Climate Care; 10:10; Effective Animal Activism

800

Tonnes of CO2eq/£100

How to prioritise

Choosing an organisation working on a specific intervention

Choosing an intervention from within a cause area

Choosing a cause area

Factoring cost-effectiveness

Comparing effectiveness

Choosing an organisation working on a specific intervention

• Track record• Transparency• Quality of team

Choosing an intervention from within a cause area

• Randomised control trials

• Cost-effectiveness estimates

Choosing a cause area

• Scale• Neglectedness• Tractability• Crucial

considerations

Take-home points1. Some things we can work on are far more effective than

others

2. Prioritisation is challenging

• However there is a growing body of experts working on this problem

3. Take prioritisation seriously

• Change your mind

• Change your actions