nichi.11-12-13.netherlands.dale morris

How the Dutch Keep Their Feet Dry (and not move to Germany)

Adaptation, Risk Mitigation and National Will

Dale T MorrisSenior Economist Royal Netherlands Embassy

08-04-20231

Overview

• The Netherlands: geography, adaptation, water wolves

• Past Practices, Future Foundations

• Multifunctional Infrastructure

• The Future (How to Avoid Moving to Germany)

• Collaborations in the US (time permitting)

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The Netherlands, in Europe

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The Netherlands: a delta landscape, penetrated by rivers, subject to sea and river flooding

Deltacommissaris5

The Netherlands, at risk• 400 miles of rivers (Rhine, Meuse)

draining NW Europe• 60% of land at/below sea level• 17 million people, 9 million of which live

below flood level• GDP 600 bln euro (70% of which

produced at/below sea-level)• 2100 miles of flood defences, hundreds

of locks, sluices, pumping stations

• storm surge, wet weather, heavy river discharge, subsiding, drought

• changing climate. SLR: 1 – 2.5 ft ~2100

• water mgmt is a matter of national survival and an opportunity

100 km

AHR

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Area potentially flooded at water level 6.0 m below MSL

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Area potentially flooded at water level 5.0 m below MSL

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Area potentially flooded at water level 4.0 m below MSL

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Area potentially flooded at water level 3.0 m below MSL

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Area potentially flooded at water level 2.0 m below MSL

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Area potentially flooded at water level 1.0 m below MSL

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Area potentially flooded at water level 0.0 m below MSL

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Area potentially flooded at water level 0.5 m above MSL

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Area potentially flooded at water level 1.0 m above MSL

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Focus of past mitigation: shorten the coastline

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300 45 km

750 50 km

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Delta Works: Reduce coastal/delta surge impacts

•Shorten coastline / strong spine•Navigation open, working delta•40 yr buildout

• Infra takes time• Small projects first• Redesigned to mitigate

substantial enviro/eco impacts in estuary

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1958 flood risk/safety standards established“Never Again” mentality

Risk = Consequences x Probability = areas with most risk have highest levels of protection

Cost-Benefit Analysis for all major infra projects (models recently updated given 40 rys of demographic and econ changes)

Caveat for US: Weather and landscape differences• Slow-moving winter storms vs fast-moving

tropical storms• Max storm windspeeds different• Rainfall manageable• Small- to- mid-sized rivers

1/10,000 = 1/500?

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We’re safe!

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Subsidence

Mining Gas + salt

Geological

Peat oxidation

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Intricate water supply / drainage: summer and winter

WinterSummer

The Delta Under Pressure: future challenges, measured

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Sealevel rise(20 cm-->

60-85 cm/100y)

More /extreme storms?

More/intense rainfall

Spatialdevelopments

Increased erosion

Subsidence10 cm/100yr

Salt intrusion

Decreasedriver

discharge- 60%

Increased river

discharge+ 10%

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Present Flood Risk Management policy (2009)(floor resistance to flood accomodation)

Multi-layered approach:

1. Robust Protection

2. Smart land-use planning

Room for the River

Living with Water: spatial planning, urban design, multiple layers of defense and green infra

3. Disaster management (Katrina effect)

Depoldering, the plan3

river MeuseTo the sea

river Merwede

Bottleneck Gorinchem

Depoldering Noordwaard (11,000 square acres)• Goals:

• Lower water level +/- 30 cm @ Gorinchem

• Improve spatial quality of area• Restore coherence of environment• Enable current residents to maintain

residence, if desired• Maintenance of farming occupation

(either within polder or elsewhere)

• Impacts:

• Overflow area will flood 1-5 x year• Nearby areas 1 x in 25 years• Fort Steurgart remains protected• Most residences will now be “outside

the dikes”, on raised mounds• Flood levels no higher than 1 meter in

residences• New park / recreation / tourism

opportunities • Remains accessible to all users• Surprise! Reduce flood risk at

Dordrecht (90 cm)

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waterdynamic3

3waterdynamic

3waterdynamic

3waterdynamic

3waterdynamic

3waterdynamic

Room for the river | Ijssel River | Zutphen - Cortenoever

Current situationProposed situationSituation with regular water floodingExtreme high water situation

Waal River / Nijmegen Project• River bottleneck, channel restriction from 1500m width to

450 m width

Options:

• Ag / undeveloped land available to north

• Northern river bank land targeted for development

• Key road / rail / harbor infrastructure

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Bottleneck

2

1

R 3294 N ijm ege n02

Dike set-back strategy: safety, increased storage / flow capacity, and new land opportunities

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Before / After (impression)

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Experience the river

the bad news

public involvement

salomons judgement

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

first scenario’s

fright fight acquiescence building trust pride

Nijmegen takes lead

definite plan

start realization

Stages

Rotterdam: 4 threats (or an opportunity?)

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URBAN FLOODPLAIN

UNDERGROUND WATER STORAGE

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Scheveningen Blvd: improve mandated protection and urban amenity (2006 safety assessment)

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Bouldevard Scheveningen De Solà - Morales

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Katwijk

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Rising seas

• Increasing sea level• Increasing population and economic value in coastal

zones world wide

IPCC, 2007 National Geographic , Sept

2013

Photo: Stephen Wilkes

Building with Nature

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Building with Nature?

young dune formationyoung dune formationyoung dune formationyoung dune formation

let nature do partof the work ...

while creating newnew eco-opportunities

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Building with Nature

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Dutch Context, coastal erosion

Shortage of natural sediment

Consequence: Structural erosion, 1996 coastline fixed

Solution: Nourishments

City of Egmond

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Development of nourishment strategy

Increase in volume

Annual added sand volumes: • Since 1990: 6 mln m3/yr• Since 2001: 12 mln m3/yr

Prospect future : 40-85 mln m3/yr !!

Change in design

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Tendency towards larger-scale nourishments

Extra functions nourishments (nature, surfing)?

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~2

km

~ 1 km

Objectives:1. Extra Safety2. Nature area / ‘Quality of living’3. Innovation

‘Hook’ alternative

70 M Euro.21 M m3 of sand

The Sand Engine!

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The Sand Engine

• enhanced safety against flooding • first: wave attenuator;

later: wider dune buffer• cheaper per m3 compared to

traditional nourishments• longer period between nourishments

• more time for beach / nearshore ecosystem to recover

• recreation potential• swimming, surfing, beach recreation

• wider dune area• increased freshwater reserve

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Predictions morphological behaviorDeltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast

Initial design

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Predictions morphological behaviorDeltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast

T=5 year

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Predictions morphological behaviorDeltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast

T=10 year

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Predictions morphological behaviorDeltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast

T=20 year

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Constructed peninsula

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Aerial photo Oct. 2011, after 3 mnths

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Aerial photo Jan. 2012, after 6 mnths

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Aerial photo July. 2012, after 1 yr

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Aerial photo July. 2013, after 2 yrs

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Spit and channel formation near lagoon

2nd Delta Commission: 2007/08 (Katrina inspired)Working together with water: a living land builds for its future

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Delta Commission, 2008:

The threat is not acute,

but measures to improve

flood risk management and

fresh water supply

should be prepared urgently!

The Delta Program: safe and productive over 100 years (how to not move to Germany)

Independent Delta Commissioner (and small staff)

2011 – 2014: Research program to identify and quantify challenges

2014: Delta Decisions

2015 – 2020: Develop projects

2020 -2050: 1 billion euro/yr for project implementation

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Cost-benefit analysis for every project

Tipping points approach

No-regret measures

Adaptive management

Tipping Points

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Dutch – American Collaborations• Post-Katrina Louisiana• Mississippi River Floods (St Louis)• Los Angeles River• SLR in San Francisco Bay (early-stage)• Integrated Delta Management (CA Bay Delta)• Galveston (Ike Dike)• SLR Norfolk• SLR Miami• Sandy

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Deltacommissaris

New Orleans: Urban Water Plan for a Living Water System

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PILOT PROJECT: HollygroveGreater New Orleans Water Management Strategy

PILOT PROJECT: MirabeauGreater New Orleans Water Management Strategy

ORLEANS OPPORTUNITIESGreater New Orleans Water Management Strategy

Fluvial Zone Type 01: Agricultural Land Use & Pooled River

The Challenges

Agriculture: Ecological:Navigation: Levees:Development:

Group Analysis

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Mayor Villaraigosa and The Dutch

Super-Storm SandyThey said: “We need Dutch barriers!”

We said: “Wait a minute…”

Rebuild by Design

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