nichi.11-12-13.netherlands.dale morris
DESCRIPTION
Dale Morris, Senior Economist, Royal Dutch Embassy, The Dutch National Plan: The Delta Commission; National Institute for Coastal & Harbor Infrastructure, John F. Kennedy Center, Boston, Nov. 12, 2013: "The Triple Threat of Rising Sea Levels, Extreme Storms and Aging Infrastructure: Coastal Community Responses and The Federal Role." See http://www.nichiusa.org or http://www.nichi.usTRANSCRIPT
How the Dutch Keep Their Feet Dry (and not move to Germany)
Adaptation, Risk Mitigation and National Will
Dale T MorrisSenior Economist Royal Netherlands Embassy
08-04-20231
Overview
• The Netherlands: geography, adaptation, water wolves
• Past Practices, Future Foundations
• Multifunctional Infrastructure
• The Future (How to Avoid Moving to Germany)
• Collaborations in the US (time permitting)
08-04-2023
The Netherlands, in Europe
08-04-20233
4
The Netherlands: a delta landscape, penetrated by rivers, subject to sea and river flooding
Deltacommissaris5
The Netherlands, at risk• 400 miles of rivers (Rhine, Meuse)
draining NW Europe• 60% of land at/below sea level• 17 million people, 9 million of which live
below flood level• GDP 600 bln euro (70% of which
produced at/below sea-level)• 2100 miles of flood defences, hundreds
of locks, sluices, pumping stations
• storm surge, wet weather, heavy river discharge, subsiding, drought
• changing climate. SLR: 1 – 2.5 ft ~2100
• water mgmt is a matter of national survival and an opportunity
100 km
AHR
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 6.0 m below MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 5.0 m below MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 4.0 m below MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 3.0 m below MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 2.0 m below MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 1.0 m below MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 0.0 m below MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 0.5 m above MSL
Deltacommissaris
Area potentially flooded at water level 1.0 m above MSL
08-04-2023
15
Deltacommissaris
Focus of past mitigation: shorten the coastline
16
300 45 km
750 50 km
Deltacommissaris
Delta Works: Reduce coastal/delta surge impacts
•Shorten coastline / strong spine•Navigation open, working delta•40 yr buildout
• Infra takes time• Small projects first• Redesigned to mitigate
substantial enviro/eco impacts in estuary
18
1958 flood risk/safety standards established“Never Again” mentality
Risk = Consequences x Probability = areas with most risk have highest levels of protection
Cost-Benefit Analysis for all major infra projects (models recently updated given 40 rys of demographic and econ changes)
Caveat for US: Weather and landscape differences• Slow-moving winter storms vs fast-moving
tropical storms• Max storm windspeeds different• Rainfall manageable• Small- to- mid-sized rivers
1/10,000 = 1/500?
Deltacommissaris
We’re safe!
19 08-04-2023
Subsidence
Mining Gas + salt
Geological
Peat oxidation
Deltacommissaris
Intricate water supply / drainage: summer and winter
WinterSummer
The Delta Under Pressure: future challenges, measured
22
Sealevel rise(20 cm-->
60-85 cm/100y)
More /extreme storms?
More/intense rainfall
Spatialdevelopments
Increased erosion
Subsidence10 cm/100yr
Salt intrusion
Decreasedriver
discharge- 60%
Increased river
discharge+ 10%
Deltacommissaris
Present Flood Risk Management policy (2009)(floor resistance to flood accomodation)
Multi-layered approach:
1. Robust Protection
2. Smart land-use planning
Room for the River
Living with Water: spatial planning, urban design, multiple layers of defense and green infra
3. Disaster management (Katrina effect)
Depoldering, the plan3
river MeuseTo the sea
river Merwede
Bottleneck Gorinchem
Depoldering Noordwaard (11,000 square acres)• Goals:
• Lower water level +/- 30 cm @ Gorinchem
• Improve spatial quality of area• Restore coherence of environment• Enable current residents to maintain
residence, if desired• Maintenance of farming occupation
(either within polder or elsewhere)
• Impacts:
• Overflow area will flood 1-5 x year• Nearby areas 1 x in 25 years• Fort Steurgart remains protected• Most residences will now be “outside
the dikes”, on raised mounds• Flood levels no higher than 1 meter in
residences• New park / recreation / tourism
opportunities • Remains accessible to all users• Surprise! Reduce flood risk at
Dordrecht (90 cm)
08-04-202328
waterdynamic3
3waterdynamic
3waterdynamic
3waterdynamic
3waterdynamic
3waterdynamic
Room for the river | Ijssel River | Zutphen - Cortenoever
Current situationProposed situationSituation with regular water floodingExtreme high water situation
Waal River / Nijmegen Project• River bottleneck, channel restriction from 1500m width to
450 m width
Options:
• Ag / undeveloped land available to north
• Northern river bank land targeted for development
• Key road / rail / harbor infrastructure
08-04-202337
Bottleneck
2
1
R 3294 N ijm ege n02
Dike set-back strategy: safety, increased storage / flow capacity, and new land opportunities
08-04-202340
Before / After (impression)
08-04-202342
Experience the river
the bad news
public involvement
salomons judgement
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
first scenario’s
fright fight acquiescence building trust pride
Nijmegen takes lead
definite plan
start realization
Stages
Rotterdam: 4 threats (or an opportunity?)
08-04-2023
45
URBAN FLOODPLAIN
UNDERGROUND WATER STORAGE
Deltacommissaris
Scheveningen Blvd: improve mandated protection and urban amenity (2006 safety assessment)
50
Bouldevard Scheveningen De Solà - Morales
Deltacommissaris
Katwijk
Deltacommissaris
Rising seas
• Increasing sea level• Increasing population and economic value in coastal
zones world wide
IPCC, 2007 National Geographic , Sept
2013
Photo: Stephen Wilkes
Building with Nature
Deltacommissaris
Building with Nature?
young dune formationyoung dune formationyoung dune formationyoung dune formation
let nature do partof the work ...
while creating newnew eco-opportunities
Deltacommissaris
Building with Nature
Deltacommissaris
Dutch Context, coastal erosion
Shortage of natural sediment
Consequence: Structural erosion, 1996 coastline fixed
Solution: Nourishments
City of Egmond
Deltacommissaris
Development of nourishment strategy
Increase in volume
Annual added sand volumes: • Since 1990: 6 mln m3/yr• Since 2001: 12 mln m3/yr
Prospect future : 40-85 mln m3/yr !!
Change in design
Deltacommissaris
Tendency towards larger-scale nourishments
Extra functions nourishments (nature, surfing)?
Deltacommissaris
~2
km
~ 1 km
Objectives:1. Extra Safety2. Nature area / ‘Quality of living’3. Innovation
‘Hook’ alternative
70 M Euro.21 M m3 of sand
The Sand Engine!
Deltacommissaris
The Sand Engine
• enhanced safety against flooding • first: wave attenuator;
later: wider dune buffer• cheaper per m3 compared to
traditional nourishments• longer period between nourishments
• more time for beach / nearshore ecosystem to recover
• recreation potential• swimming, surfing, beach recreation
• wider dune area• increased freshwater reserve
Deltacommissaris
Predictions morphological behaviorDeltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast
Initial design
Deltacommissaris
Predictions morphological behaviorDeltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast
T=5 year
Deltacommissaris
Predictions morphological behaviorDeltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast
T=10 year
Deltacommissaris
Predictions morphological behaviorDeltares (Delft3D) numerical model forecast
T=20 year
Deltacommissaris
Constructed peninsula
Deltacommissaris
Aerial photo Oct. 2011, after 3 mnths
Deltacommissaris
Aerial photo Jan. 2012, after 6 mnths
Deltacommissaris
Aerial photo July. 2012, after 1 yr
Deltacommissaris
Aerial photo July. 2013, after 2 yrs
Deltacommissaris
Spit and channel formation near lagoon
2nd Delta Commission: 2007/08 (Katrina inspired)Working together with water: a living land builds for its future
08-04-2023
76
Deltacommissaris
Delta Commission, 2008:
The threat is not acute,
but measures to improve
flood risk management and
fresh water supply
should be prepared urgently!
The Delta Program: safe and productive over 100 years (how to not move to Germany)
Independent Delta Commissioner (and small staff)
2011 – 2014: Research program to identify and quantify challenges
2014: Delta Decisions
2015 – 2020: Develop projects
2020 -2050: 1 billion euro/yr for project implementation
04/08/2023Delta Programme Commissioner78
Cost-benefit analysis for every project
Tipping points approach
No-regret measures
Adaptive management
Tipping Points
08-04-2023
79
Dutch – American Collaborations• Post-Katrina Louisiana• Mississippi River Floods (St Louis)• Los Angeles River• SLR in San Francisco Bay (early-stage)• Integrated Delta Management (CA Bay Delta)• Galveston (Ike Dike)• SLR Norfolk• SLR Miami• Sandy
08-04-2023
80
Deltacommissaris
New Orleans: Urban Water Plan for a Living Water System
08-04-2023
PILOT PROJECT: HollygroveGreater New Orleans Water Management Strategy
PILOT PROJECT: MirabeauGreater New Orleans Water Management Strategy
ORLEANS OPPORTUNITIESGreater New Orleans Water Management Strategy
Fluvial Zone Type 01: Agricultural Land Use & Pooled River
The Challenges
Agriculture: Ecological:Navigation: Levees:Development:
Group Analysis
08-04-2023
87
Mayor Villaraigosa and The Dutch
Super-Storm SandyThey said: “We need Dutch barriers!”
We said: “Wait a minute…”
Rebuild by Design
04/08/2023
88