ncep vision: first choice – first alert – preferred partner 1 ocean prediction center () ming...
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NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner1
Ocean Prediction Center(www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov)
Ming Ji, Director
“where NOAA’s ocean obs., research and operational services come together”
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner2
Requirements for NWS Marine and Ocean Warnings and Forecasts Mission
• Sets international policy and requirements for safer shipping and cleaner oceans
• Event of April 14-15, 1912
• U.S. implements convention and policy through Executive Order 12234 – Enforcement of the Convention for SOLAS
• U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy (2004)
International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea(SOLAS-1974 and amendments)
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner3
Where we are now
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner4
OPC’s Vision & Mission
OPC Vision:The OPC strives to be the mariner’s weather lifeline through exceptional products and customer service.
OPC Mission:The OPC provides atmospheric and oceanographic warning, forecast, and analysis products and services for the north Atlantic and north Pacific as part of the NOAA mission of protecting life and property and enhancing economic opportunity.
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner5
Example of OPC Customers
Commercial shipping/transportation
Commercial and recreational fishing
Private weather and ship routing services
Recreational boating
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner6
NWS Marine Areas of Responsibility
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner7
OPC’s Products and Services
Atlantic and Pacific high seas– narrative warnings & forecasts to 48 h
– graphic analyses and forecasts to 96 h
Atlantic and Pacific regional– offshore warnings
– sea-state analysis & forecast graphics
– weather analysis & forecast narratives
Global quality control of marine observations
Emergency and Special Services and Support– Guidance forecasts for Tropical Cyclones (TC) for TPC
– Backup for TPC/NHC and Honolulu WFO
– On-demand services: Search & Rescue and HAZMAT responses
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner8
EgyptAir 990 on-scene & reach back support to NTSB (Nov 1999)
Finding M/V White Seal adrift off the Carolina coast (2003)
Tailored marine forecasts to USCG and NOAA HAZMAT for Disabled M/V Cougar Ace south of the Aleutians (Jul – Aug 2006)
Examples of OPC’s Emergency and Special Products & Services
M/V White Seal
M/V Cougar Ace
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner9
OPC Partners
NWS Field Offices, NCEP/TPC – NWS Marine and Ocean Warnings and Forecasts Mission
USCG – Product dissemination, Search and Rescue
NOAA/NOS
US Navy – Partnership on Operational Oceanographic Forecasts and Information Services
NOAA Corps
Foreign Weather Services - International Commitments
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner10
OPC Product Dissemination
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner11
OPC Webpage Statistics
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Jan
Mar
May Ju
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Sep Nov
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05
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Sep Nov
Jan-
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Since Jan 2004
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Web Page Hits by Year
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
2003
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2007*
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OPC
U.S. Commercial Interests:
39% in Jan. 2007
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner12
OPC Wind Speed Verification
By Fiscal Year
0102030405060708090
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FY95FY96
FY97FY98
FY99FY00
FY01FY02
FY03FY04
FY05FY06
FY07*
*to date
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NWS GoalOPC
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner13
Where we are going
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner14
OPC vision:
“Where NOAA ocean obs, research and operational services come together”
• Partnership with NOS, NMFS toward operational service delivery in oceans, coasts, estuaries, and eco-systems forecasts
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner15
Future Products and services
Ocean forecasts– SST (e.g., shipping and fishing)
– Surface Currents (e.g., shipping and fishing)
– Salinity (e.g., coastal and eco-system forecasting)
Rearl-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS)– HYCOM, basin and global
– NOAA-Navy Partnership
– NOPP community development
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner16
Research to Operations
Ocean Surface Vector Winds– QuikSCAT, WindSat, ASCAT for wind warnings and forecasts
Altimeter significant wave height– Jason-1 for wave forecasts
Operational Oceanography
– Evaluate RTOFS_ATL (HYCOM)
– Evaluate NAVY HYCOM
– SST analysis• GHRSST
• Reynolds (NCDC) daily 25 km analysis
– Surface current analysis• OSCAR-2
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner17
Future Products and services
Coastal forecasts– Extra-tropical Storm Surge
– Coastal Flooding & Inundation
– HYCOM+ADCIRC+WW3 (NOAA, Navy, USACE)
– Local (Bays, Estuaries), and Regional
– Joint (NWS-NOS) operations (under development)» Warning and Forecast guidance – NWS
» Shipping and port traffice management - NOS
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner18
Future Products and services
Eco-system forecasting– The coastal forecasting system provides the
capability for physical components
– R&D topics in science and modeling
– Extend the coastal forecasting framework into future NOAA operational eco-systems/biological forecasts
NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner19
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