NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner1

Ocean Prediction Center(www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov)

Ming Ji, Director

“where NOAA’s ocean obs., research and operational services come together”

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner2

Requirements for NWS Marine and Ocean Warnings and Forecasts Mission

• Sets international policy and requirements for safer shipping and cleaner oceans

• Event of April 14-15, 1912

• U.S. implements convention and policy through Executive Order 12234 – Enforcement of the Convention for SOLAS

• U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy (2004)

International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea(SOLAS-1974 and amendments)

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner3

Where we are now

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner4

OPC’s Vision & Mission

OPC Vision:The OPC strives to be the mariner’s weather lifeline through exceptional products and customer service.

OPC Mission:The OPC provides atmospheric and oceanographic warning, forecast, and analysis products and services for the north Atlantic and north Pacific as part of the NOAA mission of protecting life and property and enhancing economic opportunity.

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner5

Example of OPC Customers

Commercial shipping/transportation

Commercial and recreational fishing

Private weather and ship routing services

Recreational boating

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner6

NWS Marine Areas of Responsibility

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner7

OPC’s Products and Services

Atlantic and Pacific high seas– narrative warnings & forecasts to 48 h

– graphic analyses and forecasts to 96 h

Atlantic and Pacific regional– offshore warnings

– sea-state analysis & forecast graphics

– weather analysis & forecast narratives

Global quality control of marine observations

Emergency and Special Services and Support– Guidance forecasts for Tropical Cyclones (TC) for TPC

– Backup for TPC/NHC and Honolulu WFO

– On-demand services: Search & Rescue and HAZMAT responses

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner8

EgyptAir 990 on-scene & reach back support to NTSB (Nov 1999)

Finding M/V White Seal adrift off the Carolina coast (2003)

Tailored marine forecasts to USCG and NOAA HAZMAT for Disabled M/V Cougar Ace south of the Aleutians (Jul – Aug 2006)

Examples of OPC’s Emergency and Special Products & Services

M/V White Seal

M/V Cougar Ace

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner9

OPC Partners

NWS Field Offices, NCEP/TPC – NWS Marine and Ocean Warnings and Forecasts Mission

USCG – Product dissemination, Search and Rescue

NOAA/NOS

US Navy – Partnership on Operational Oceanographic Forecasts and Information Services

NOAA Corps

Foreign Weather Services - International Commitments

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner10

OPC Product Dissemination

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner11

OPC Webpage Statistics

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U.S. Commercial Interests:

39% in Jan. 2007

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner12

OPC Wind Speed Verification

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NWS GoalOPC

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner13

Where we are going

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner14

OPC vision:

“Where NOAA ocean obs, research and operational services come together”

• Partnership with NOS, NMFS toward operational service delivery in oceans, coasts, estuaries, and eco-systems forecasts

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner15

Future Products and services

Ocean forecasts– SST (e.g., shipping and fishing)

– Surface Currents (e.g., shipping and fishing)

– Salinity (e.g., coastal and eco-system forecasting)

Rearl-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS)– HYCOM, basin and global

– NOAA-Navy Partnership

– NOPP community development

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner16

Research to Operations

Ocean Surface Vector Winds– QuikSCAT, WindSat, ASCAT for wind warnings and forecasts

Altimeter significant wave height– Jason-1 for wave forecasts

Operational Oceanography

– Evaluate RTOFS_ATL (HYCOM)

– Evaluate NAVY HYCOM

– SST analysis• GHRSST

• Reynolds (NCDC) daily 25 km analysis

– Surface current analysis• OSCAR-2

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner17

Future Products and services

Coastal forecasts– Extra-tropical Storm Surge

– Coastal Flooding & Inundation

– HYCOM+ADCIRC+WW3 (NOAA, Navy, USACE)

– Local (Bays, Estuaries), and Regional

– Joint (NWS-NOS) operations (under development)» Warning and Forecast guidance – NWS

» Shipping and port traffice management - NOS

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner18

Future Products and services

Eco-system forecasting– The coastal forecasting system provides the

capability for physical components

– R&D topics in science and modeling

– Extend the coastal forecasting framework into future NOAA operational eco-systems/biological forecasts

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner19