myths: salmon and the sea
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Myths: Salmon and the Sea
• Limiting factors are all in fresh water, hence marine survival does not vary
• The ocean has unlimited capacity to support salmon
• All juveniles salmonids migrate rapidly to the north
OSU Purse Seining OSU Purse Seining (1981(1981--1985)1985)OSU purse seining—1979-1985
Ocean carrying capacity
• It varies– Seasonally—Coastal Upwelling– Interannually—El Niño/La Niña– Interdecadally—Pacific Decadal Oscillation– Intercentenially
1983 El Niño
Predictions for 1983 coho returns: 1.3 million vs. 600 thousand
Timing (spring transition) and intensity are both important
Drifter tracks temperature Chlorophyll
• Strong upwelling=good survival during cool PDO
•Poor correlation with upwelling during warm PDO
•Strong stratification
Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Warm or positive phase Cool or negative phase
OPI (hatchery) coho marine survival: PDO and stratification
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.1419
70
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Return Year
Surv
ival
Why? Leading hypothesis: changes in ocean conditions impact the entire marine food-web
1976-77 PDO shift
Strong stratification in 1990s
upwelling food webs in our coastal ocean
Cool water, weak stratificationhigh nutrients, a productive “subarcticsubarctic” food-chain with abundant forage fish and few warm water predators
Warm stratified ocean, fewnutrients, low productivity “subtropicalsubtropical” food web, a lack of forage fish and abundant predators
What controls survival?Hypotheses and mechanisms
• Critical period during early ocean life is affected by ocean conditions
• Ocean productivity, prey availability and growth– Faster growth, less predation– Critical size to avoid winter starvation– Area and distribution of highly productive water
• Predation intensity—more big predators when warm waters intrude and close to shore
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