multipurpose & heavylift shipping market outlook · 2019-06-10 · multipurpose & heavylift...

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Multipurpose & Heavylift Shipping Market Outlook

Susan Oatway - Senior Analyst for Multipurpose & Breakbulk Shipping

Breakbulk Europe 2019Bremen 23rd May 2019

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Agenda

• Vessel Supply‒ Vessel classification‒ Fleet composition‒ Newbuildings – orders and deliveries‒ Demolitions‒ Fleet development

• Cargo Demand‒ Dry cargo demand‒ MPV market share‒ Pressures on demand

• Market Outlook‒ Challenges and conclusions

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Vessel Supply

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Vessel Supply

Drewry classification of the multipurpose vessel (MPV) fleet

• Multipurpose (no gear): An MPV with TEU and grain capacity but no cranes.

• Multipurpose (geared): An MPV with TEU and grain capacity and cranes with a maximum combinable lift of less than 100t SWL.

• Project carrier: An MPV with cranes with a maximum combinable lift of over 100t SWL built after 1989.

• Heavylift vessel: An MPV with cranes with a maximum combinable lift of over 100t SWL built before1989.

• Premium Project carrier: An MPV with cranes with a maximum combinable lift of over 250t SWL built after 1989.

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Vessel SupplyFleet by sector by dwt segment, 1 May 2019

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Vessel SupplyMultipurpose vessel (no gear) fleet age profile, 1 May 2019

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Vessel SupplyMultipurpose vessel (geared) fleet age profile, 1 May 2019

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Vessel SupplyProject carrier & Heavylift vessel fleet age profile, 1 May 2019

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Vessel SupplyPremium project carrier fleet age profile, 1 May 2019

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Vessel SupplyMaximum lift by vessel sector

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

Maximum average lift of Crane #1is 50t in the 20-35,000 dwt sector

Maximum average lift of Crane #1is 193t in the 15-20,000 dwt sector

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Vessel Supply

Orderbook schedule as at 1 May 2019

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Vessel Supply

Fleet slippage data, 2012 - 2018

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Vessel Supply

Demolition by segment

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Vessel SupplyFleet development

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

Multipurpose (no gear & geared) deliveries

Project carrier and Heavylift deliveries

Multipurpose (no gear & geared) demolitions

Project carrier and Heavylift demolitions

Multipurpose (no gear & geared) fleet (right axis)

Project carrier and Heavylift fleet (right axis)

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Cargo demand

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Cargo demand

Development of dry cargo demand

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Cargo demand

Development of MPV market share

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Cargo demand

Competition for market share

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Pressures on demand – Flagging global trade

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

Cargo demand

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Global Trade

Geopolitical Risk

Economic Growth

Tariff barrier and trade war

Regulatory Uncertainty

Product Miniaturisation

3D/4D Printing

Digital Disrupters

Nearshoring / regionalisation

Pressures on demand - Drivers of trade deceleration

Cargo demand

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Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

Cargo demandPressures on demand – Crude oil price

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Cargo demandEffective demand for the multipurpose sector

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Outlook

ConsolidationConsolidation events against average TC rate

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Market outlook Multipurpose freight market Index, based on timecharter rates received from brokers

Source: Drewry’s Multipurpose Shipping Market Review and Forecast (www.drewry.co.uk)

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Conclusions

• Outlook• Low demolition candidates over 2018, led to slight

improvement in fleet numbers but expectation is for contraction over longer term. Project carrier fleet expecting strong growth against decline of the simple multipurpose vessel.

• Global GDP and investor confidence are positive drivers for this sector. However the uncertainty surrounding these will dampen any market improvements.

• Challenges and Opportunities• The ongoing US / China trade war has the potential

to severely damage competing markets, prompting increased competition for these cargoes.

• Of growing importance to shippers is the financial health of the carriers – a robust due diligence procedure is necessary in today’s climate

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