multiple air toxics exposure study (mates iv) preliminary results · 2015-08-28 · pico rivera...

Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study

(MATES IV)

Preliminary Results

2014 NAAMC, Studies in Air ToxicsSouth Coast Air Quality Management District

August 13, 2014

Overall Summary

• PRELIMINARY RESULTS

• Trends in monitored levels air toxics continue to decline

• Modeled exposures and risks substantially lower compared to MATES III

• Diesel PM remains largest component of air toxics estimated risk

MATES IV Monitoring • Continuation of MATES III sites for trend analysis

• Measured species: VOCs, Carbonyls, TSP metals, Cr6+, Lead, PM2.5 speciation (metals, EC,

OC), added Black Carbon & Particle Counts (Ultra-Fine Particles)

• 10 sites, 1-in-6 day, 24-hr integrated sampling, continuous monitoring for BC & UFP

• Utilize ongoing toxics monitoring programs

• Duration: 07/01/2012 – 07/01/2013

• Local scale studies

Preliminary MATES IV data

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Anaheim Burbank Central LA Compton Inland Valley S.B.

Huntington Park

North Long Beach

Pico Rivera Rubidoux West Long Beach

Average

ng/m3

Arsenic

MATES II MATES III Year 1 MATES III Year 2 MATES IV

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Anaheim Burbank Central LA Compton Inland Valley S.B.

Huntington Park

North Long Beach

Pico Rivera Rubidoux West Long Beach

Average

ng/m3

Lead

MATES II MATES III Year 1 MATES III Year 2 MATES IV

Preliminary MATES IV data

Rule 1420.1 30-Day Limit = 150 ng/m3

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Anaheim Burbank Central LA Compton Inland Valley S.B.

Huntington Park

North Long Beach

Pico Rivera Rubidoux West Long Beach

Average Filter Blank Avg

ng/m3

Hexavalent Chromium

MATES II AQMD Lab data MATES III Year 1 MATES III Year 2 MATES IV

Preliminary MATES IV data

Preliminary MATES IV data

0

5

10

15

20

25

Anaheim Burbank Central LA Compton Inland Valley S.B.

Huntington Park

North Long Beach

Pico Rivera Rubidoux West Long Beach

Average

ng/m3

Nickel

MATES II MATES III Year 1 MATES III Year 2 MATES IV

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Anaheim Burbank Central LA Compton Inland Valley S.B.

Huntington Park

North Long Beach

Pico Rivera Rubidoux West Long Beach

Average

ng/m3

Vanadium - TSP

MATES II MATES III Year 1 MATES III Year 2 MATES IV

Preliminary MATES IV data

Preliminary MATES IV data

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Anaheim Burbank Central LA Compton Inland Valley S.B.

Huntington Park

North Long Beach

Pico Rivera Rubidoux West Long Beach

Sites Average

Benzene

MATES II MATES III Year 1 MATES III Year 2 MATES IV

Preliminary MATES IV data

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Anaheim Burbank Central LA Compton Inland Valley S.B.

Huntington Park

North Long Beach

Pico Rivera Rubidoux West Long Beach

Sites Average

1,3 Butadiene

MATES II MATES III Year 1 MATES III Year 2 MATES IV

Preliminary MATES IV data

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Anaheim Burbank Central LA Compton Inland Valley S.B.

Huntington Park

North Long Beach

Pico Rivera Rubidoux West Long Beach

Sites Average

Formaldehyde

MATES II MATES III Year 1 MATES III Year 2 MATES IV

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Anaheim Burbank Central LA Compton Inland Valley S.B.

Huntington Park

North Long Beach

Pico Rivera Rubidoux West Long Beach

Sites Average

ug/m3

EC PM2.5

MATES III Year 1 MATES III Year 2 MATES IV

Preliminary MATES IV data

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Re

lati

vve

Ch

ange

fro

m F

irst

Ye

ar N

AT

TS

An

nu

al A

vera

ge (

%)

Benzene

Formaldehyde

Pb - CELA

Cr6-CELA

Pb - Rubi

Cr6-Rubi

NATTS Trends for Selected Pollutants

NATTS Trends for Selected Pollutants

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Re

lati

vve

Ch

ange

fro

m F

irst

Ye

ar N

AT

TS A

nn

ual

A

vera

ge (

%) 1,3-Butadiene

Ni - CELA

Ni - Rubi

As - CELA

As - Rubi

Preliminary MATES IV data2103 shows Q1 & Q2 EC data only. 2013 GDP value not yet available

Elemental Carbon Trends and the Economy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

CA

Co

nst

r. G

DP

($

10

bill

ion

s)To

tal #

of

TEU

(m

illio

n)

EC (

µg/

m3)

Container Throughput CA Construction GDPRubidoux AnaheimLong Beach Los AngeesFontana

MATES IV Monitored Air Toxics Risk

Preliminary MATES IV data

68.0%

8.3%

7.7%

5.6%

10.4%

MATES IV Air Toxics Risk

Diesel PM

Benzene

1,3 Butadiene

Carbonyls

Other

Basinwide Risk: 422 per million

Based on Average at 10 Fixed Monitoring sites

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

To

ns

Pe

r D

ay

Other

Carbonyls

1,3 Butadiene

Benzene

Diesel PM

IIIIII

III

III

III

IIIIII

IIIIII III

III

IV

IVIV

IV

IV

IVIVIVIVIVIV

MATES IV Monitored Air Toxics Risk

65% Lower than MATES III

Emissions Inventory

Weighted by Cancer Potency

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

MATES II(1998)

MATES III(2005)

MATES IV(2012)

Emis

sio

ns

as D

PM

(lb

s/d

ay)

Area

Point

Off-road

On-road

Category

Change from

MATES III (%)

Change from

MATES II (%)

Area -77.2 -86.8

Point +4.9 -64.0

Off-road -73.5* -73.2

On-road -49.4 -55.7

*about half of Off-road reduction is due to a change in emissions estimation methods

Modeled Air Toxics Risk – MATES III

Modeled Air Toxics Risk – MATES IV

Preliminary MATES IV data

Modeled Air Toxics Risk

MATES III to MATES IV Difference

Preliminary MATES IV data

Preliminary Conclusions

• Monitored data, emissions inventory and modeling all show similar and significant cancer risk reductions between 2005/06 and 2012/13

• Diesel Particulate Matter accounts for 68% of the cancer risk

• All results are preliminary and are undergoing further validation and review

Questions?

• Jean Ospital (jospital@aqmd.gov)

• Jason Low (jlow@aqmd.gov)