mobile social networking: trends and forecasts from the informa 2009 market research report

Mobile Social Networking

2009 and Future Trends2009 and Future Trends

Christine Perey

PEREY Research & Consulting

PEREY Research & Consulting

• Management Consulting – Strategic planning

– Business development

– Technology Transfer

• Multimedia Mobile Video Multimodal Interfaces • Multimedia

MeetingsMobile Video

Mobile

Augmented

Reality

Mobile

Social

Networks

Multimodal Interfaces

Augmented Meetings

December 7, 2009 2Mobile Monday Switzerland

December 7, 2009 3Mobile Monday Switzerland

350 M Users

Regional Networks don’t work

150 M Users

English isn’t enough

December 7, 2009 4Mobile Monday Switzerland

December 7, 2009 5Mobile Monday Switzerland

Community Activity by AccessC

om

mu

nit

y a

ctiv

ity Non-mobile

accesses320M

Max

People

using

both

Co

mm

un

ity

act

ivit

y

Accesses from

Mobile devices

2009

140M

92M

56M

20082007 2010 2011 2012

210M

320M

Mobile > Non-mobile

6

User concerns

Fragmentation

• How can I keep track of all

my identities?

• Where can others find me?

• Why can’t I consume all my

Trust

• How do I control access to my content?

• Are privacy settings respected?

• Will my data be deleted when I ask?

• Is my data used for other means?

Availability

• Will it always work when I need it?

• What happens if the company goes

bankrupt or is acquired?

• Why can’t I consume all my

friends data from a single

application?

• Is my data used for other means?

• Who is billing me and for what?

Freedom

• Can I design/redesign my pages?

• Can I share pictures with a friend

who is not on the same network?

• Can I switch to another platform

and keep my data?December 7, 2009 7Mobile Monday Switzerland

When the screen is small,

and/or bandwidth limited,

the service is more

focused (targeted),

Identity Fragmentation

focused (targeted),

When the service is more

focused, the user occupy

(visit) more communities

Aaron Nace ©

December 7, 2009 8Mobile Monday Switzerland

Service provider concerns

Innovation

To be valuable to users?

Communicate the value to users?

User Experience?

User Experience

User Experience?

Easier to monetize?Proprietary

Technology

Platform

December 7, 2009 9Mobile Monday Switzerland

Location becomes critically important

December 7, 2009 10Mobile Monday Switzerland

Presence becomes critically important

December 7, 2009 11Mobile Monday Switzerland

Service provider concerns

Innovation “Raw” Users

To be valuable to users?

Communicate the value to users?

User Experience?

Easier to monetize?

How many users register?

How many invite others?

Where else do they go?

12

Easier to monetize?

What are the

Appropriate

Metrics?

December 7, 2009 Mobile Monday Switzerland 12

Service provider concerns

Innovation “Raw” Users

To be valuable to users?

Communicate the value to users?

User Experience?

Easier to monetize?

How many users register?

How many invite others?

Where else do they go?

Engagement

Easier to monetize?

Ease of use/access?

How often do users return?

What do they do?

How long do the stay?

What are the

Appropriate

Metrics?

December 7, 2009 13Mobile Monday Switzerland

Client/platform strategies

Browser > handset-applications

December 7, 2009 14Mobile Monday Switzerland

Service provider concerns

Innovation “Raw” Users

To be valuable to users?

Communicate the value to users?

User Experience?

Easier to monetize?

How many users register?

How many invite others?

Where else do they go?

MonetizationEngagement

Easier to monetize?

How often do users return?

What do they do?

How long do the stay?

What will users pay for?

What will partners pay for?

Where can I place ads?

What merchants will advertise?

December 7, 2009 15Mobile Monday Switzerland

Monetization Strategies

• Community access

• Communications

– Messaging

– Voice

• Transactions

• Corporate

sponsorships/featured

partners– Voice

– Video

• Advertising

– Impressions

– Click-throughs

• Application stores

• Contracts and

technology licenses

• Sales of statistics

December 7, 2009 16Mobile Monday Switzerland

The Future

• Everything becomes social

• Mobile users > non-mobile users

• Location and presence widely supported

• Continued growth – Mobile SN revenues > revenues desktop– Mobile SN revenues > revenues desktop

– Access, engagement

• Browsers remain > client apps, but apps rise

• 3 scenarios

What about architecture?

December 7, 2009 17Mobile Monday Switzerland

Fragmentation

• Great diversity

• Customer confusion and fatigue

• Increasing friction to rolling out new features (and

services)

– Development costs

– User learning curve

December 7, 2009 18Mobile Monday Switzerland

Consolidation

• Big players get bigger, more

powerful

• User choices decrease

(essentially becoming “Walled (essentially becoming “Walled

gardens”)

• Lower impetus to innovate

• Social silos “own” all

customer data and their

social graph

December 7, 2009 19Mobile Monday Switzerland

Social Web

• Users move seamlessly between “social applications”

• Decentralized approach using well-known, agreed, open protocols means

– User can take data and social graph wherever they want

–Decreased friction to rolling out new services

–Social applications interoperate

December 7, 2009 20Mobile Monday Switzerland

Social Web

Open Source and Standardse.g., Activity Streams (based on Atom feed format)

• Identity Management

• Profile Management

• (UG) Content Management

• Billing/Transaction Management

• …. Management services

Social Applications overlay

Social Services in the Web

December 7, 2009 21Mobile Monday Switzerland

Questions?

cperey@perey.com+41 79 436 68 69