migration to europe drivers, trends and future scenarios · migration to europe drivers, trends and...
Post on 28-May-2020
3 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
17 January 2017 Speaker name
1
Hein de Haas heindehaas.org
Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios
Migration Myths
1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
17 January 2017 Hein de Haas 4
Source: Centre for Global Development
Source: Pew Research Center
So, what has changed?
Neither exodus, nor invasion…
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
EU25 and US immigration, yearly, 1960-2010
EU25
US
Source: Hein de Haas, Simona Vezzoli and María Villares-Varela (2016
forthcoming) Trend and patterns of international migration 1950-2010.
DEMIG working paper. Based on DEMIG C2C data.
Migratie als veiligheidsgevaar
“Mondiale zekerheden en waarschijnlijkheden” - Eindrapport Verkenningen “Houvast voor de krijgsmacht van de toekomst” 2010, Netherlands Ministry of Defence
19
Migration as a
threat to security (Map produced by Netherlands
Ministry of Defence)
Migration Myths
1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
20
Migration Myths
1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration
21
‘Substitution effects’
Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions
1.Category jumping
Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of
international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and
destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
‘Substitution effects’
Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions
1.Category jumping
2.‘Now or never migration’
Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of
international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and
destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
Immigration from Suriname
It’s now or never !!!
How the Dutch government stimulated
unwanted migration from Suriname
Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration
across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states.
DEMIG Working Paper.
Independence
Immigration from Suriname
It’s now or never !!!
How the Dutch government stimulated
unwanted migration from Suriname
Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration
across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states.
DEMIG Working Paper.
Independence
Immigration from Suriname
It’s now or never !!!
How the Dutch government stimulated
unwanted migration from Suriname
Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration
across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states.
DEMIG Working Paper.
Independence Visas introduced
Immigration from Suriname
Independence
How the Dutch government stimulated
unwanted migration from Suriname Visas introduced
Returns
Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration
across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states.
DEMIG Working Paper.
It’s now or never !!!
‘Substitution effects’
Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions
1.Category jumping
2.‘Now or never migration’
Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of
international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and
destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
‘Substitution effects’
Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions
1.Category jumping
2.‘Now or never ‘migration’
3.Interrupting circulation
Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of
international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and
destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
‘Substitution effects’
Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions
1.Category jumping
2.‘Now or never ‘migration’
3.Interrupting circulation
4.Geographical diversion
Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of
international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and
destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
‘Substitution effects’
Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions
1.Category jumping
2.‘Now or never ‘migration’
3.Interrupting circulation
4.Geographical diversion
Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of
international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and
destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
‘Substitution effects’
Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions
1.Category jumping
2.‘Now or never ‘migration’
3.Interrupting circulation
4.Geographical diversion
5.Increased role of smuggling
Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of
international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and
destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
25 years of Fortress Europe A lethal vicious circle….
‘Substitution effects’
Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions
1.Category jumping
2.‘Now or never ‘migration’
3.Interrupting circulation
4.Geographical diversion
5.Increased role of smuggling
Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of
international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and
destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
DEMIG C2C database - www.imi.ox.ac.uk Estimation de l' émigration basée sur les chiffres d'ímmigration des pays de destination:
FR, BE, NL, IT, ES, DE, DK, NO, FI, AT, CH, US, CA, AU Ligne rouge = moyenne glissante sur 4 ans
Moroccan emigration to OECD countries
Recruit-
ment stop
Visa regimes
S-Europe
Global economic
crisis
The migration policy paradox
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Percentage of population abroad
Guyana
Suriname
The migration policy paradox
Source: Vezzoli 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Percentage of population abroad
French Guiana
Guyana
Suriname
The migration policy paradox
Source: Vezzoli 2015
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
EU25 migration trends
Immigration
The migration policy paradox
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
EU25 migration trends
Immigration Emigration
The migration policy paradox
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
EU25 migration trends
Immigration Emigration Within EU25
The migration policy paradox
Migration Myths
1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration
45
Migration Myths
1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration
3. Development will reduce migration
46
Migration as the anti-thesis of development?
49
Source: de Haas, Hein 2010. Migration transitions: a theoretical and
empirical inquiry into the developmental drivers of international
migration. IMI/DEMIG Working Paper, University of Oxford
The developmental drivers of migration
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Very low Low Middle High Very high
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
Human development index (HDI)
Immigrants
50
Source: de Haas, Hein 2010. Migration transitions: a theoretical and
empirical inquiry into the developmental drivers of international
migration. IMI/DEMIG Working Paper, University of Oxford
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Very low Low Middle High Very high
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
Human development index (HDI)
Emigrants
Immigrants
The developmental drivers of migration
Destination country drivers of migration
51
Migration Myths
1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration
3. Development will reduce migration
52
Migration Myths
1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration
3. Development will reduce migration
4. Migration can solve the ageing problem
53
World - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 1970
350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Males Population in Millions Females
No Education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
World - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2010 - Global Education Trend - Scenario
350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Males Population in Millions Females
No Education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
World - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2050 - Global Education Trend - Scenario
350 250 150 50 50 150 250 350
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+
Males Population in Millions Females
No Education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
70000 56000 42000 28000 14000 0 14000 28000 42000 56000 70000
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Males Population in Thousands Females
China - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 1970
No Education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
World Population ProogramIIASA 2009
Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
70000 56000 42000 28000 14000 0 14000 28000 42000 56000 70000
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Males Population in Thousands Females
China - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2010 - Global Education Trend -Scenario
No Education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
World Population ProogramIIASA 2009
Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
70000 56000 42000 28000 14000 0 14000 28000 42000 56000 70000
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
Males Population in Thousands Females
China - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2050 - Global Education Trend -Scenario
No Education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
World Population ProogramIIASA 2009
Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
Migration Facts
1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
60
1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high (‘neither exodus nor invasion’), and main changes have been directional
61
Migration Facts
1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high
2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration
62
Migration Facts
1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high
2. Restrictions interrupt circulation, discourage return, push migrants into permanent settlement and encourage smuggling
63
Migration Facts
1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high
2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality
3. Development will reduce migration
64
Migration Facts
1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high
2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality
3. Development drives migration by increasing capabilities and aspirations to migrate
65
Migration Facts
1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high
2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality
3. Development drives migration
4. Migration can solve the ageing problem
66
Migration Facts
1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high
2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality
3. Development drives migration
4. Migration cannot solve ageing and other structural socioeconomic problems
67
Migration Facts
17 January 2017 Speaker name
68
Hein de Haas heindehaas.org
Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios
top related