mercury public affairs 137 fifth avenue, 3rd floor new york, ny 10010 212 681-1380 the 2008 u.s....

Mercury Public Affairs137 Fifth Avenue, 3rd FloorNew York, NY 10010212 681-1380www.mercurypublicaffairs.com

The 2008 U.S. ElectionsA Very Brief Overview, Eleven Trends

The Presidential Election Results

States won by Bush in 2004 and lost by McCain Indicated by

Raw Vote TotalsObama 69,456,897McCain 59,934,814

How Bad Was It?

• Republicans lost 8 seats (9 depending on the still undecided race in Minnesota) in the US Senate. Assuming Republicans lose the Minnesota Senate Race the Senate will stand at 60 D’s and 40 R’s.

• Republicans lost 21 seats in the House of Representatives. Currently there are 255 D’s and 175 R’s.

• Democrats won seven of eleven races for Governor. After the elections 29 states have Democrat Governors and 21 have Republican Governors.

Trend #1 – Declining Republican Base

Trend #1 – Declining Republican Base

Trend #2 -- Obama is Doing Average(Unless you listen to the Media)

Obama is Doing Average(Unless you listen to the Media)

Trend #2 --

Trend #3 – Until Further Notice: It’s the Economy Stupid!

Issue Matrix on Election Day 08

Most Important Issue Total Obama McCain

Economy 63% 53% 44%

Iraq 10% 59% 39%

Terrorism 9% 13% 86%

Health care 9% 73% 26%

Energy Policy 7% 50% 46%

Trend #3 – Until Further Notice: It’s the Economy Stupid!

Trend #3 – Until Further Notice: It’s the Economy Stupid!

Trend #4 – Obama verses It’s the Economy Stupid!

Trend #5 – Cheney verses ObamaThe President’s Gitmo Problem

Candidate

Campaign Manager

Political Polling Fundraising AdvertisingCoalitions/

Special Groups

Comms Research

Trend #6 –- The Internet’s Impact on Organization of Campaigns

The Obama Campaign invested resources to fully integrate the Internet across all organizational aspects of their effort.

Trend #7 – Evolution of Websites

• Campaign and party websites in 2008 combine social networking, communications, fund-raising and mobilization into a single platform.

• Websites continue to evolve as political resource force multipliers allowing campaigns to harness more time, money, people, talent and messaging.

• The evolution of the internet creates unique challenges for campaigns and political party structures – in 2008 the Obama campaign successful used www.barackobama.com to harness additional political resources.

Trend #8 – The Power of Online Video

• YouTube and Online video provided campaigns with opportunities to customize video messages in ways never before possible.

• Campaigns of all sizes are now able to deliver message in ways not possible in the past.

• Online video allows campaigns to track opponents, capture gaffes, and drive them out into mainstream media.

Trend #8 – The Power of Online Video

The Most Watched Ad of the 2008 Cycle Never Ran on TV

It was produced over the course of a weekend by an Obama Supporter and distributed via YouTube

Trend #9 – Voters as CustomersA CRM Approach to Data

Data WarehouseData Warehouse

Email Lists

Email Lists

WebsiteWebsiteConsumer

DataConsumer

Data

Voter IDVoter ID

Voter FileVoter FileDonorsDonors

In the 2008 campaign data warehousing allowed campaigns to combine contacts and data as never before to build profiles.

The most important tool in Barak Obama’s arsenal was his database.

Contacts with voters flowed into the database and then back to voters through additional contacts.

Trend #10 – Harnessing Social Networks

Presence on social networks allows people to show support to their friends

Integration takes advantage of the viral element of social networks to expand support

Trend #10 – Harnessing Social Networks

MyBO profileProvided a campaign based social network for Obama supporters.

Managed and tracked supporter activities

Directed offline opportunities like GOTV effort

Supporters could take ownership of the campaign.

Trend #10 – Harnessing Social Networks

Same elements… less effective

Cluttered

Lack of focus

Different set of consumers.

Trend #11 –- The Tele-Forum

• The Tele-Forum was a new and innovative technology that allows candidates and party leaders to contact thousands of people simultaneously via the phone.

• The technology works like a conference call and after the call provides extensive feed back to the campaign.

• For an example of the Tele-Forum in action go to: http://clientmanager.broadnet.us/marketing/Cardinal/Cardinal.html