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Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain?
Olaf Merk
1 June 2016
10th International Harbour Masters Congress
Vancouver, Canada
Big is beautiful?
• Bigger ships
• Bigger costs, peaks, risks
• Bigger shipping lines
• Bigger ports and terminals
• Always bigger?
2
“The Impact of Mega-Ships” Report
3
Bigger ships
4
Container ships
Bulkers
Passenger & Cruise
Tankers
Ro/Ro-ships
General cargo
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sh
ip s
ize g
ro
wth
(d
wt;
10
0=
ind
ex)
Bigger container ships
5
Cost savings for shipping lines
6
,100 $
,150 $
,200 $
,250 $
,300 $
,350 $
,400 $
,450 $
5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 17,000 19,000
US
$/
TE
U
Nominal TEU size
cost at 16 knots
cost at 22 knots
old units at 22 knots, contains first ~15,000 TEU units and hypothetical fast 19,000 TEU ship
modern units at 22 knots
old units at 16 knots, contains first ~15,000 TEU units and hypothetical fast 19,000 TEU ship
modern units at 16 knots
Assumptions: Round trip: 21,000 nm, three weeks tied up for port operations Average cost of main engine fuel: US$ 600/ton
Utilization of nominal capacity: 85%
8,500 TEU vessel built ~ 2003
Bigger costs for the transport chain
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Bigger peaks
14
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
30/7 19/8 8/9 28/9 18/10 7/11 27/11 17/12
GT
Yard
AVG DAYS
GT daily volume of container shipsmoored over 50 000 GTGT daily volume of container shipsmoored <= 50 000 GT
Pressure on terminals
15
Bigger is not faster
16
How much faster is possible?
17
How much faster is possible?
18
Who is going to pay?
19
More flexibility
20
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Container arrivals/departures by road transport per hour of day in 2014
21
Bigger risks
22
Bigger risks
23
Bigger container shipping lines
24
Bigger shipping lines: alliances
25
Bigger terminals: alliances of terminals
26
Need for bigger ports?
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30
Cu
mu
lati
ve m
ark
et
sh
are
(%
)
Rank
North Europe
Carriers
Ports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30
Cu
mu
lati
ve m
ark
et
sh
are
(%
)
Rank
Mediterranean
Carriers
Ports
Bigger ports
28
Can the ships be filled?
29
Where are we heading?
30
Cascade effects
31
Big, bigger, biggest: vicious circle?
32
Need to cut costs
Bigger ships
Overcapacity
Lower freight rates
“The Impact of Mega-Ships” Report
33
Thank you!
Olaf Merk
olaf.merk@oecd.org
www.internationaltransportforum.org
Twitter: @o_merk
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