mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the ... · mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh...
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Mega-ships: do the benefits outweigh the costs to the transport chain?
Olaf Merk
1 June 2016
10th International Harbour Masters Congress
Vancouver, Canada
Big is beautiful?
• Bigger ships
• Bigger costs, peaks, risks
• Bigger shipping lines
• Bigger ports and terminals
• Always bigger?
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“The Impact of Mega-Ships” Report
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Bigger ships
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Container ships
Bulkers
Passenger & Cruise
Tankers
Ro/Ro-ships
General cargo
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sh
ip s
ize g
ro
wth
(d
wt;
10
0=
ind
ex)
Bigger container ships
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Cost savings for shipping lines
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,100 $
,150 $
,200 $
,250 $
,300 $
,350 $
,400 $
,450 $
5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 17,000 19,000
US
$/
TE
U
Nominal TEU size
cost at 16 knots
cost at 22 knots
old units at 22 knots, contains first ~15,000 TEU units and hypothetical fast 19,000 TEU ship
modern units at 22 knots
old units at 16 knots, contains first ~15,000 TEU units and hypothetical fast 19,000 TEU ship
modern units at 16 knots
Assumptions: Round trip: 21,000 nm, three weeks tied up for port operations Average cost of main engine fuel: US$ 600/ton
Utilization of nominal capacity: 85%
8,500 TEU vessel built ~ 2003
Bigger costs for the transport chain
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8
9
10
11
12
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Bigger peaks
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0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
30/7 19/8 8/9 28/9 18/10 7/11 27/11 17/12
GT
Yard
AVG DAYS
GT daily volume of container shipsmoored over 50 000 GTGT daily volume of container shipsmoored <= 50 000 GT
Pressure on terminals
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Bigger is not faster
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How much faster is possible?
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How much faster is possible?
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Who is going to pay?
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More flexibility
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Container arrivals/departures by road transport per hour of day in 2014
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Bigger risks
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Bigger risks
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Bigger container shipping lines
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Bigger shipping lines: alliances
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Bigger terminals: alliances of terminals
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Need for bigger ports?
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30
Cu
mu
lati
ve m
ark
et
sh
are
(%
)
Rank
North Europe
Carriers
Ports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30
Cu
mu
lati
ve m
ark
et
sh
are
(%
)
Rank
Mediterranean
Carriers
Ports
Bigger ports
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Can the ships be filled?
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Where are we heading?
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Cascade effects
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Big, bigger, biggest: vicious circle?
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Need to cut costs
Bigger ships
Overcapacity
Lower freight rates
“The Impact of Mega-Ships” Report
33
