measuring police productivity
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Measuring police productivityA review of BCU level data
July 2006
Kevin Marsh
Introduction
Project (2005): Matrix commissioned to assess the potential of ABC data
• measure police performance
• improve police performance
Presentation
• Background: policy + methodology
• Measuring police inputs
• Measuring police outputs
• Analysis: the comparative efficiency of BCUs
• Discussion
Policy background
General public sector
•1997/8 Comprehensive Spending Review: need for savings
• 2001 elections: Office of Public Service Reform set up
• Gershon Report (2004): specific efficiency proposals
Police
• The White Paper “Building Communities, Beating Crime”
• Police efficiency plans: 3% cost saving per year (2005/06 - 2007/08)
• PPAF: measures to judge police performance
Methodological context
Definition of productivity
• Sum of weighted outputs/expenditure
International standards for measurement of productivity
• United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA)
• European System of Account (ESA 95)
UK measurement of productivity
• Atkinson review (2005) recommend adoption of SRA + ESA95
• ONS test recommendations
• improvements to health, education, personal social services, administration of social security and fire services
Challenges to measuring inputs Atkinson (2005): standards for input measurement
• comprehensive
• personnel
• procurement of goods and services
• capital
• deflated
• adjusted for the quality of inputs
Police: 2 sources input data
• net revenue expenditure (ODPM, HO, LA)
• activity-based costing
Activity based costing
Budgetary
Other
At court
Paperwork
Deal with detainees
Interview detainees
Issue advice
Searches
Observations
Enquiries
Deal with incident
Budgetary
Other
At court
Paperwork
Deal with detainees
Interview detainees
Issue advice
Searches
Observations
Enquiries
Deal with incident
e.g. missing person, false alarm
e.g. RTC fatal
e.g. public disorder, deception
e.g. burglary in dwelling
e.g. violence against the person,
e.g. missing person, false alarm
e.g. RTC fatal
e.g. public disorder, deception
e.g. burglary in dwelling
e.g. violence against the person,
Waiting time / refreshments
e.g. community involvement, admin
Visible patrol
Waiting time / refreshments
e.g. community involvement, admin
Visible patrol
Waiting time / refreshments
Non-incident related
Visible patrol
Waiting time / refreshments
Non-incident related
Visible patrol
Other incidents
Traffic
All other crime
Burglary, robbery, theft
Violent crime
Other incidents
Traffic
All other crime
Burglary, robbery, theft
Violent crime
Data available: number of hours (not cost)
No need deflate
reactive / individual
proactive/ collective
How good is ABC?
Concerns
• ignore some activities
• seasonality
• self-reported data
• response rate: 80%
• capital + procurement
• quality (grade/cost)
• not record downtime
Improvements
• increase officer awareness of the benefits of the data
• checks on the validity
• timing of data collection
Allow distinguish inputs by ACTIVITY and CRIME TYPE
How many hours to BCUs spend reacting to violent crime?
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
ho
urs
How many hours do BCUs spend reacting to each violent crime?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
ho
urs
Challenges to measuring output
Activity types: collective (defence), individual (education)
• universal protection of public: collective
• clearing up crime: individual
Output measures: detection
Adjustments
• alternative explanations of change in output
• quality of output
• value of output (weight?)
Are detection rates related to the time spend on each violent crime?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
ho
urs
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
de
tec
tio
n r
ate
hours per violent crime
violent crime detection rate
Are detection rates related to the time spend on each violent crime?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
ho
urs
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
de
tec
tio
n r
ate
hours per violent crime
violent crime detection rate
How efficient are BCUs at detecting violent crime?
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
hours per crime
dete
cti
on
rate
How efficient are BCUs at detecting violent crime?
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
hours per crime
dete
cti
on
rate
Assumption: detection rate explained by efficiency of BCU inputs
Does efficiency depend on BCU family?
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
hours per offence
dete
ctio
n ra
te
BCU family 2
BCU family 4
BCU family 8
BCU family 10
BCU family 13
Does the efficiency of detection vary between crime types?
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
hours per offence
det
ecti
on
rat
e
violent crime
robbery
Does the efficiency of detection vary between crime types?
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
hours per offence
det
ecti
on
rat
e
violent crime
robbery
Does the efficiency of detection vary between crime types?
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
hours per offence
det
ecti
on
rat
e
violent crime
robbery
Technical efficiency
Allocative efficiency
Does the efficiency of detection vary between crime types?
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
hours per offence
det
ecti
on
rat
e
violent crime
burglary
robbery
Does the efficiency of detection vary between crime types?
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
hours per offence
det
ecti
on
rat
e
violent crime
burglary
robbery
Value of a detection?
How should detections be weighted?
How should detections be weighed?
How do weights impact the efficiency of resource allocation?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
hours per offence
dete
ctio
n ra
te (
wei
ghte
d)
violent crimeburglaryrobbery
Conclusion: how use/improve analysis?
Use: further investigation of productivity trends identified
Improve
• inputs: ABC allow measure services provided by police
• improve: seasonality, accuracy of self report, capital measure, quality/costs
• outputs
• detection: broader impact (satisfaction)
• collective: define output, attribute change
• statistical model (DEA/SFA): appropriate, data?
• literature review
• project budget marginal analysis
QUESTIONS?
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