marten middeldorp university of groningen, faculty of spatial sciences, department of economic...

Marten Middeldorp

University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Department of Economic Geography, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen

CBS Micro data user meeting, 16th of May 2013, The Hague

The transitional labour market

Using microdata to analyse individual labour market decisions in a regional context

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Contents

1. Introduction

2. Theoretical and methodological background

3. First results

4. Issues

5. Synthesis + discussion

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Introduction: research questions

1. What are the career paths of school-leavers, employed and unemployed and what are determinants of success (on the labour market)?

2. How can regional labour market dynamics be defined in terms of inflow to, outflow from and mobility within companies, sectors and regions en how can this be linked to job opportunities and job seekers in a region and economic growth potential of a region?

3. How can the results be used to formulate regional labour market policies?

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Introduction: analytical model

Background: Types of mobility (RWI/CBS, 2012)

TransitiesTransities

Transities

Carrière lijn

Target groups:

School-leaverEmployedUnemployed

Cohort1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cohort2 Cohort3 Einde volgperiode

Characteristics:Person / Job / Region

Background: Methodological choices

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Background: Methodological choices

1. Three target groups: school-leavers, employed, unemployed

2. Three cohorts (okt. 2006 / okt. 2008 / okt. 2010)

3. Career path: consecutive transitions (e.g. job (flex) -> job (fixed) -> unemployed -> job (fixed))

4. Success: a)no unemployment during measured period and/or having a job at end of measured period,

b)higher salary (compared to start and/or other persons)

(Self-)Employed

Background: transitions(Primary Source of Income)

Unemployed / benefits

(P)Retired

Education Other

Cohort 2006 Cohort 2008 Cohort 2010

>65

11.042.961 11.105.635 11.162.262

(P)Retired 3,6 3,6 3,4

Employed 57,5 59,3 57,8

Self-employed 5,9 5,5 6,5

Unemployed / benefits 11,1 10,0 11,3

Other 10,7 9,7 9,1

Education 11,3 11,2 11,9

<15

First results: PSI / VIB(Primary Source of Income / Voornaamste Inkomstenbron)

2010

2006(P)Retired

(Self-)Employed

Unemployed / benefits

Other Education

(P)Retired 93,2 1,6 0,9 3,8 0,5

(Self-)Employed 4,1 85,3 4,9 5,2 0,6

Unemployed / benefits 15,1 14,9 60,0 9,4 0,5

Other 12,7 23,6 6,2 56,7 0,9

Education 0 45,9 4,9 7,8 41,5

First results: 2006 -> 2010

First results: Employment/Unemployment-ratios

Issues: jobs

How to define a ‘job’ with CBS microdata?

• Goals: measuring job-to-job-mobility, measuring tenure

• Currently a ‘job’ gets a new case if the characteristics of the job change

• How to handle the SBI’93 – SBI’08 conversion?

• What definition of locality to use? (GEMSTPL or GEMHV)

Issues: school-leavers

How to define a ‘school-leaver’ with CBS microdata?

• Not just those with diplomas, but also those that end education without a degree

• End dates of education need to be close to have comparable career paths

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Thank you for your attention!