marten middeldorp university of groningen, faculty of spatial sciences, department of economic...
TRANSCRIPT
Marten Middeldorp
University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Department of Economic Geography, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen
CBS Micro data user meeting, 16th of May 2013, The Hague
The transitional labour market
Using microdata to analyse individual labour market decisions in a regional context
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Contents
1. Introduction
2. Theoretical and methodological background
3. First results
4. Issues
5. Synthesis + discussion
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Introduction: research questions
1. What are the career paths of school-leavers, employed and unemployed and what are determinants of success (on the labour market)?
2. How can regional labour market dynamics be defined in terms of inflow to, outflow from and mobility within companies, sectors and regions en how can this be linked to job opportunities and job seekers in a region and economic growth potential of a region?
3. How can the results be used to formulate regional labour market policies?
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Introduction: analytical model
Background: Types of mobility (RWI/CBS, 2012)
TransitiesTransities
Transities
Carrière lijn
Target groups:
School-leaverEmployedUnemployed
Cohort1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cohort2 Cohort3 Einde volgperiode
Characteristics:Person / Job / Region
Background: Methodological choices
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Background: Methodological choices
1. Three target groups: school-leavers, employed, unemployed
2. Three cohorts (okt. 2006 / okt. 2008 / okt. 2010)
3. Career path: consecutive transitions (e.g. job (flex) -> job (fixed) -> unemployed -> job (fixed))
4. Success: a)no unemployment during measured period and/or having a job at end of measured period,
b)higher salary (compared to start and/or other persons)
(Self-)Employed
Background: transitions(Primary Source of Income)
Unemployed / benefits
(P)Retired
Education Other
Cohort 2006 Cohort 2008 Cohort 2010
>65
11.042.961 11.105.635 11.162.262
(P)Retired 3,6 3,6 3,4
Employed 57,5 59,3 57,8
Self-employed 5,9 5,5 6,5
Unemployed / benefits 11,1 10,0 11,3
Other 10,7 9,7 9,1
Education 11,3 11,2 11,9
<15
First results: PSI / VIB(Primary Source of Income / Voornaamste Inkomstenbron)
2010
2006(P)Retired
(Self-)Employed
Unemployed / benefits
Other Education
(P)Retired 93,2 1,6 0,9 3,8 0,5
(Self-)Employed 4,1 85,3 4,9 5,2 0,6
Unemployed / benefits 15,1 14,9 60,0 9,4 0,5
Other 12,7 23,6 6,2 56,7 0,9
Education 0 45,9 4,9 7,8 41,5
First results: 2006 -> 2010
First results: Employment/Unemployment-ratios
Issues: jobs
How to define a ‘job’ with CBS microdata?
• Goals: measuring job-to-job-mobility, measuring tenure
• Currently a ‘job’ gets a new case if the characteristics of the job change
• How to handle the SBI’93 – SBI’08 conversion?
• What definition of locality to use? (GEMSTPL or GEMHV)
Issues: school-leavers
How to define a ‘school-leaver’ with CBS microdata?
• Not just those with diplomas, but also those that end education without a degree
• End dates of education need to be close to have comparable career paths
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Thank you for your attention!