march 2018 deltek acumen risk risk adjusted...

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AttheconclusionofaRiskexercise,wouldn’titbenicetobeabletohavethatadjustedscheduleforfuturereference?Useforcomparisonlaterintheproject?Maybeuseasareplacementscheduletoyouroriginalforecast?AnicefeatureincludedintheAcumenRisktool,istheabilitytocreateanadjustedschedulefromtheinput/outputs.

ContainedwithintheDeltekAcumentoolsuiteisafunctioncalledBuildScenario.Thefunctionallowsformakingacopyofanexistingfileintheworkbook,buildanewscenariobasedontheRiskInputs(durationuncertaintyvaluesonactivities)orcreateascenariobasedonRiskOutputsatwhateverP-valuedesired.

Figure1—AcumenS3//Riskscreen

MARCH 2018 DELTEK ACUMEN RISK

RISK ADJUSTED SCHEDULE

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RISK ADJUSTED SCHEDULE

Withintheprogram,athree-pointestimateisestablishedbytheuserforeachactivitytoaccountfordurationuncertainty.Durationuncertaintyisthevariabilityindurationthataparticulartasktakestoexecuteduetoavarietyoffactors,includingproductivity,weatherconditions,complexactivity,etc.Additionally,riskeventsareaddedtothemodelbywayofmappingtoactivities,WBSelementsortheentireplan.Theserisksareestablishedwithaprobabilityofoccurenceaswellasarangeofduration.When“rollingthedice”adurationbetweentheminimumandmaximumisselectedandalongwiththeriskeventsplusthelogiccontained,anewschedulemodelisderivedforeachiteration.Theprogram,aspartoftheriskanalysissetofiterations,calculatesP-durations/valuesforeachindividualactivityinthemodel.TheseP-valuedurationsarethenassembledintoadeterministicschedule.WhenusingthisScenariofunction,thatschedulecanthenbeextractedoutforwhateverP-valuedesiredbytheteam.AprojectteammaydesiretoseehowaP-50andP-80comparetothedeterministicandwanttoextractforreviewinthescheduletool.

Figure2—AcumenRiskscenariooptions

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ToexecutecreatingascenarioofaP-valueschedule,selectBuildScenarioundertheS3//Risktab.InFigure2,50wastheselectedvalue.Next,clickontheRiskOutputScenariosection.ThisoptionwillonlybeactivewhenaprojectisselectedintheS1//Projectsscreen(seeFigure3).

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Onceselected,AcumenautomaticallycopiesthefileandcreatesthescenariogiventheP-valueselection.Oncecomplete,asecondschedulewillappearintheProjectsscreenwithScenariointhedescription(seeFigure4).

Figure4—AcumenS3//RiskProjects

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WiththeScenarionowpopulated,theusercanthenusethatcopytoexportoutforinclusioninthescheduleprogramofchoicebeitMSProject,DeltekOpenPlanorP6.ThisExportroutinecantakeplacebackintheS1//Projectstab(seeFigure5).Theusercansavethenewfileinthelocationorfolderofchoice.

Figure5—AcumenS1//Projectstab