manufacturing and the environment 2.83/2web.mit.edu/2.813/www/2007 class slides/2.83 first...

Manufacturing and the Manufacturing and the Manufacturing and the Manufacturing and the Environment 2.83/2.813Environment 2.83/2.813Environment 2.83/2.813Environment 2.83/2.813Tim Gutowski, gutowski@mit.edu

Alissa Jones, ajones@mit.edu

Young Song, ysong@mit.edu

Let’s change rooms

New Room

35-520

Given Lounge

35-5201-246

Mass Ave

Vassar St

2.83 / 2.813 Addresses

• Environmental issues

– energy, carbon, toxics, materials, …

• Engineering

– LCA, Thermodynamics, environmental

accounting

• Other Disciplines

– climatology, chemistry, archeology, industrial

ecology, ecological economics,….

Manufacturing

• Value Adding

– Jobs, Value Creation, Standard of Living

• Long Reach

– Design Decisions control material and energy

flows, Supple Chain, Services

• Shadow Side

– Environmental Footprint

– “Excess” Consumption

Sustainable Development

"...development that

meets the needs of

the present without

compromising the

ability of future

generations to meet

their own needs."

UN, “Brundtland Report”

Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland

former PM of Norway,

chairwomen of UN commission,

“Our Common Future”

Today

• Administrative Stuff

– Please Fill Out Cards

– Course Outline

– Grading

– Project

– Readings…

• Mfg & System Issues

– mfg profile

– paradoxes

– IPAT eq

– strategies

Please fill out card

• Name

• email

• year (e.g. G2 or U4)

• course / program

• List 2 environmental problems that are

important to you

World Population

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/p

opclockworld.html

Some questions

• how do you know that this is a problem?

• where did you get your information?

• do you agree with your class mates?

• what is behind each of these problems?

Baloney Detection Kit• How reliable are the sources of this claim? Is there reason to believe that

they might have an agenda to pursue in this case?

• Have the claims been verified by other sources? What data are presented in support of this opinion?

• What position does the majority of the scientific community hold in this issue?

• How does this claim fit with what we know about how the world works? Is this a reasonable assertion or does it contradict established theories?

• Are the arguments balanced and logical? Have proponents of a particular position considered alternate points of view or only selected supportive evidence for their particular beliefs?

• What do you know about the sources of funding for a particular position? Are they financed by groups with partisan goals?

• Where was evidence for competing theories published? Has it undergone impartial peer review or it is only in proprietary publication?

after Carl Sagan

Environmental Challenges

Sulfur and NOxemissions from smelting and fossil fuels, acid

leaching and cleaning

9. Acid disposition

Materials usage and waste8. Depletion of non-fossil fuel resources

Land appropriated for mining, growing of bio-materials,

manufacturing, waste disposal

7. Land use patterns

Emissions of CFCs, HCFCs, halons, nitrous oxides e.g. cooling

requirements, refrigerants, cleaning methods, use of

fluorine compounds

6. Stratospheric ozone depletion

Land use, water usage, acid deposition, thermal pollution5. Loss of biodiversity

Electricity and direct fossil fuel usage e.g. power and heating

requirements, reducing agents

4. Depletion of fossil fuel resources

Water usage and discharges e.g. cooling and cleaning use in

particular

3. Water availability and quality

Emission of toxins, carcinogens, etc. including use of heavy

metals, acids, solvents, coal burning…

2. Human organism damage

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from direct and indirect

energy use, land fill gases, etc.

1. Global climate change

Linkage to Manufacturing ProcessesEnvironmental Concerns

from Graedel and Allenby 2005

Manufacturing’s Profile

• Energy

• Waste

• Toxic Materials

• Mixing and Diluting

• Regulations

Energy Flow in the U.S.

Quadrillion (1015)BTU’s = 1.005 EJ

1 BTU = 1055 J DOE, 2001

Waste by Sector in U.S.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

ManufacturingMining

Oil and Gas

Agricultural

Hazardous

MSW

Coal Ash

Medical

Billion Metric Tons of Waste GeneratedSource: US Congress, OTA-BP-82

Note: A large fraction of the total

weight in the industrial categories is

water. Dry weight of industrial wastes

can be as low as 10% of the total.

Major Waste Types by Weight in the United States

2005 EPA data:

Ind. ~7 G t

MSW~ 0.23 G t

Total Toxic Releases by Sector

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000Off-site/Underground Injection

Land

Underground Injection

Water

Air

Mfg. Metal Coal Elec. Chem. Petrol Bulk RCRA

Mining Mining Utilities Wholesale Term Solvent Recovery

EPA, 1998

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Crust Ore Smelt Alloy Product MSW

Alu

Fe

Cu

Most Importantly: Mfg controls materials flows

Manufacturing

concentration

Environmental Regulations

ref Allen & Shonnard

Mfg Summary

• Significant, often hidden shadow side

– e.g. Direct and indirect energy (50%)

• Significant regulation already exists

• Interconnected with wealth generation

• A Major Challenge

Analysis Tools for Accounting

• Ecological Footprint

• Mass Flow Analysis

• Intro to Bio-Geo-Chemical Cycles

• Energy/Exergy Analysis

• Life Cycle Analysis

Course Outline

http://web.mit.edu/2.813/www/

February Monday Wednesday 7. Introduction

12. Eco-Footprint 14. Sustainability?

20. Scale, Flow and Cycles** 21. Exergy Accounting

26. Intro to LCA 28. Materials Production

March

5. Cutler Cleveland @ 12 noon 7. Mfg Processes

12. Mfg Processes 14. “Coal” discussion

19. Discussion 21. Quiz 1

26. (Spring Break) 28. (Spring Break)

April 2. LCA 4. Scale and Efficiency

9. Material Recycling 11. Product Recycling

16. (Patriots Day Holiday) 18. Product Reuse

23. Photovoltaics (TB) 25. Nanomfg (JI)

30. Presentations

May 2. Presentations

7. Project Follow-up 9. Field Trip

14. Review 16. Quiz 2

Grading

1. Quiz I (30%)

2. Quiz II (30%)

3. Project (30%)

4. Class Participation (10%)

100%

Reading List

Books:Books:Books:Books: 1.1.1.1. Freese,Freese,Freese,Freese, Barbara, 2003. Coal A Human HistoryCoal A Human HistoryCoal A Human HistoryCoal A Human History, Penguin Books. 2.2.2.2. Smil, Smil, Smil, Smil, Vaclav, 2006. EnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy,,,, Onewor ld Oxford Publications.

3.3.3.3. HendricksonHendricksonHendricksonHendrickson, Chr is T ., Lave,Lave,Lave,Lave, Lester B. and MatthewsMatthewsMatthewsMatthews H. Scott, 2006. Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Goods andEnvironmental Life Cycle Assessment of Goods andEnvironmental Life Cycle Assessment of Goods andEnvironmental Life Cycle Assessment of Goods and Services An Input Services An Input Services An Input Services An Input – Output ApproachOutput ApproachOutput ApproachOutput Approach, Resources for the Future Press.

See webpage for the rest…

Zero Order Model of the System

Production Consumption

Earth

Class ProjectClass Focus

Project: Life Style Analysis…

Diet

Electronics

…more

Housing

Travel

Nursing home patient

StudentRockStar

CEO

Today

• Administrative Stuff

– Please Fill Out Cards

– Course Outline

– Grading

– Project

– Readings…

• Mfg & System Issues

– mfg profile

– paradoxes

– IPAT eq

– strategies

2. Looking at the System

• EBM Panel and the win-win scenario

• Paradoxes and boundaries

• Disaggregating the problem

– The IPAT Equation

• Solutions

– Free Market Solutions

– Government Intervention

EBM Panel in Japan Oct 23,1999

What did we learn?

• There is no silver bullet

• It’s the system

complex, interconnected, non-linear and

including human behavior

Paradoxes and boundaries

• Interdependence: complex systems and

human behavior

– telephone and car trips

– email and paper

– efficiency and conservation

– consumption and happiness

Designing in/out the Human Factor

Recyclable

process waste

contaminated

with trash

Human behavior plays a key role at every level

from Bert Bras

System boundaries

You must consider not only the product,

but also how it is used.

Mining Primary Mfg Distribution Use Disposition

0m& 8m&

kipm& kopm&

0m& 8m&

kipm& kopm&

0m& 8m&

kipm& kopm&

0m& 8m&

kipm& kopm&

0m& 8m&

kipm& kopm&

0m& 8m&

kipm& kopm&

Recycle, Remanufacture, Reuse

Life Cycle Framework

Light Bulbs and MercuryLight Bulbs and MercuryLight Bulbs and MercuryLight Bulbs and Mercury

Allen and Shonnard

Light Bulbs and MercuryLight Bulbs and MercuryLight Bulbs and MercuryLight Bulbs and Mercury

Allen and Shonnard

Disaggregating the Problem

Services & Goods

Impact

Person

Services & Goods PopulationImpact ××=

T A P I ××=

for infinitesimals

T

T

A

A

P

P

I

I ∆+

∆+

∆=

∆

Population Growth

World Population

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/p

opclockworld.html

RIN P0 ROUT ][

][

emigrationnimmigratio

deathbirthR

−+

−=∆

PRdt

dP⋅∆=

Population Dynamics

2006t

P

World

6.5 B

1965

3.2 B

dtRP

dP⋅∆=

tR

oePP ⋅∆=

n

o iPP )1( +=

in the discrete form…

Currently i ≈1%

We are adding 70-80 M people/yr

Add one Germany or 2X Canada each year

for infinitesimals

T

T

A

A

P

P

I

I ∆+

∆+

∆=

∆

Affluence = GWP per captia

Affluence and GDP, GWP

• GDP = Gross Domestic Product

• GWP = Gross World Product

• GWP = market value of all goods and

services produced for a year

GWP, i ≈ 5% for 2004, 2005

To improve, we want…

0 <∆

+∆

+∆

=∆

T

T

A

A

P

P

I

I

1%+4%-5%=0Based onglobalestimates…

We must improve our environmental performance ongoods and services by 5% a year just to stay even.

F=P(1+i)n

5.4%/yr

How hard is it to improve

by 5% per year?

Examples of improvements

• Pig Iron (energy 1800–1984) 1.1%

• Aluminum (energy 1900–1987) 1.0%

• Air Travel (energy 1971–1997) 3.7%

• Nitrogen Fertilizer (energy 1930-1989) 4.4%

• Machine tools (time 1900-2000) 5.4%

• Moore’s Law (2x in 2 yrs) 41%

• Kyoto Protocol ~0.4%

Yes 5%/yr is possible, but…

• it will require incentives

• we want more than 5%

• will 5% improvement in efficiency result is

a 5% reduction in scale?

Engineering Strategies

source sink

recirculation

Engineering Strategies

1. Reduction at Sink

• pollution prevention

2. Reduction at Source

• substitution

• efficiency

3. Recirculation

• reuse, remfg, recycle

Incentives??

Bigger Picture Solutions

• make people richer !?

– lower birth rates, more concern, more consumption

• free market solutions

– charge for “externalities”

– market failures e.g. eco-system services

• government intervention

– ecological taxes

– efficiency standards

– cap and trade programs

see www.Harvard.edu

Fertility and Affluence

What is Needed

• System Knowledge

• Analysis Tools

• New Technologies

• Policy Intervention

Please Do Your Ecological

Footprint for Next Time

http://www.rprogress.org/

World Population

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/p

opclockworld.html

Remember Room 35-520Next Time