2.83/2.813 t.g. gutowski feb 8, 2006 - mitweb.mit.edu/2.813/www/class slides/lecture 2...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Ecologic al Footpr int
2. 83/2. 813
T.G. Gutowski
Feb 8, 2006
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Re ad ing Assig nme nts
• Homework (reviewed 2/14)• 2/14 Sustainability?
•
• a) Diamond, J., “Easter Island’s End” Discover Magazine, 1995. (6 pages)
• http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/24/042.html
•
• b) Broswimmer, “The Chaco Anasazi….,” p 45-48 (handout)
•
• c) Hardin, G., “Tragedy of the Commons,” Science, 162, 1968, p 1243-1248.
• http://dieoff.org/
•
• d) Wilson, E.O., “The Bottleneck” pp 22 – 41, Ch 2 in The Future of Life, 2001 (handout)
•
• e) Lomborg, B., “Biodiversity” in The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World, 2001, p 251-257. (handout)
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U nf i nished Business
• IPAT equation example
• Systems Framework (3X3) Matrix
(see handouts)
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IPAT Equation Examples
Impact population service provided technology
“I” “P” car “T”
“A”
mile
gasoline
car
driven miles cars ofnumber gasoline ××=
1.What are the factors that influence the
amount of gasoline we burn in automobiles?
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2. Energy used to make pig iron
iron pig
energy producediron pigEnergy
iron pig
energy
factory
iron pigfactories ofnumber Energy
×=
××=
Again the energy used per ton pig iron produced
depends upon the technology used.
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GWP grew at 5% in 2005
GWP per capital grew at 3. 8% in 2004
We must improve our environmental performance of
our goods and services by 5%/year just to stay even!
05%-4%1%
improve to0
=+
≤∆
+∆
+∆
=∆
T
T
A
A
P
P
I
I
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s imple versio n of IPAT
Carbon = GWP X (Carbon/GWP)
Impact = “Affluence” X “Technology”
T
T
GWP
GWP
C
C ∆+
∆=
∆
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T
T
GWP
GWP
C
C ∆+
∆=
∆
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World carbon emissions = C
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The underlyi ng truth
From Smil
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Ple ase Do Your
Ecologic al Footpr int
http://www.rprogress.org/
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“Overhead”
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W acker nag el’s paper and
worksheet
http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/99/14/9266
http://www.pnas.org/content/vol0/issue2002/imag
es/data/142033699/DC1/0336DataSet.xls
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Table 1. Summary of equivalence factors,
humanity's area demands, and earth's biological
capacity in 1999 (per capita)
Average global area demand (per
capita)
Existing global biocapacity
(per capita)
Area
Equivalence
factor, gha/ha Total demand,
ha (per capita)
Equivalent total,
gha (per capita)
World area,
ha (per
capita)
Equivalent total,
gha (per capita)
Growing crops 2.1 0.25 0.53 0.25 0.53
Grazing animals 0.5 0.21 0.10 0.58 0.27
Harvesting timber 1.3 0.22 0.29 0.65 0.87
Fishing 0.4 0.40 0.14 0.39 0.14
Accommodating infrastructure 2.2 0.05 0.10 0.05 0.10
Fossil fuel and nuclear energy 1.3 0.86 1.16 0.00 0.00
Total 2.33 1.91 1.91
To make aggregation reflect differences in bioproductivity, areas are expressed in standardized global hectares (gha), which
correspond to hectares with world average bioproductivity.
Wackernagel’s Results
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Copyright ©2002 by the National Academy of Sciences
Wackernagel, Mathis et al. (2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99, 9266-9271
No Caption Found
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Copyright ©2002 by the National Academy of Sciences
Wackernagel, Mathis et al. (2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99, 9266-9271
No Caption Found
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Outl ine
• How much land is there?
• What do we do with this land?
• The production of biomass, NPP
• The sequestration of carbon, NEP
• Lifestyle and Product footprints
• National accounts
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2R
R ≈ 6370 km
Surface area =
4πR2 = 510 X 106 km2
71% Oceans
29% Land = 148 Mkm2 = 14.8Gha
(one hectare = 100mX100m
one hectare = 2.47 acres)
There are 13.1 Gha not covered
by water or ice.
13.1/6.5 = 2 ha per person
on earth
(5 acres per person)
How much room is there?
Is there anybody else here
on earth besides us?
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Wh at do we do with th is l and?
deserts crops
wetlandsforests
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gr ass l and and cows
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wilderness and built-up
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Albers Projection (equal area)
showing croplands and cities
in Pimm, 2001
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Net Pr im ary Product iv ity
NPP = GPP – Ra
GPP = Gross Primary Productivity
(Photosynthesis)
Ra = autotrophic respiration
2612622 666 OOHCOHCO +→+
2612622 666 OOHCOHCO +←+
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The Carbo n Cycle
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CO2 co nce ntr at io n in the atm
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How do you me asure NPP?
• buckets in the woods
• students with clippers
• satellites, see e.g.
http://asnerlab.stanford.edu/index.shtml
1kg/m2
dry mass
after Pimm
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Are a, b iom ass, product iv ity
from John Harte
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est imate of NPP
from John Harte
Note, Pimm’s crude estimate would give
(1kg/m2 =0.45kgC/m2=4.5tC/ha) x 13.1Gha = 59 GtC
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Earth Land Accounts (excluding Antartica)
Ref. Pimm 2004Note: Pimm uses (2.2:1) dry mass to carbon
this gives NPP = 52 Gt(C)
52115131Totals
.922004Other
1.94.220021“too dry”
--8“too cold”
1.22.613002Wet lands
5.712.550025Grass lands
11.625.5170015Corp lands
2044100044Other forests
10.924200012Rain forests
NPP
Gt C
NPP
Gt (dry mass)
Productivity
ton (dry mass)/km2
Area
106
km2
Land Classiciation
(after Olson)
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C arbon sequestr at io n
NPP – Rh
Rh = heterotrophic respiration
– see websites at Oak Ridge National Labs
• http://csite.ornl.gov/
• http://cdiac.ornl.gov/home.html
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World carbon emissions = C
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Wackernagel’s Energy Area
Note:
there are some small differences in worksheet Vs paper
Anthropogenic carbon = 6.3 GtC (1999)
Nuclear (7% of world) add 0.5GtC
Carbon sequestration/yr Giga – “global” hectares
∴
GhaGhaha
tClandtoGtC 6.634.19.4
95.0
69.08.6 =×=×
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W acker nag el’s result
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Table 1. Summary of equivalence factors,
humanity's area demands, and earth's biological
capacity in 1999 (per capita)
Average global area demand (per
capita)
Existing global biocapacity
(per capita)
Area
Equivalence
factor, gha/ha Total demand,
ha (per capita)
Equivalent total,
gha (per capita)
World area,
ha (per
capita)
Equivalent total,
gha (per capita)
Growing crops 2.1 0.25 0.53 0.25 0.53
Grazing animals 0.5 0.21 0.10 0.58 0.27
Harvesting timber 1.3 0.22 0.29 0.65 0.87
Fishing 0.4 0.40 0.14 0.39 0.14
Accommodating infrastructure 2.2 0.05 0.10 0.05 0.10
Fossil fuel and nuclear energy 1.3 0.86 1.16 0.00 0.00
Total 2.33 1.91 1.91
To make aggregation reflect differences in bioproductivity, areas are expressed in standardized global hectares (gha), which
correspond to hectares with world average bioproductivity.
Wackernagel’s Results
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Alter nat ive Diets
• According to Pimm, the biomass from
cropland for human food is about ½ of
what is used for animals. Furthermore the
average diet calories come 5/6 from crops
and 1/5 from animal. Since animals also
use grazing land this makes meat about 3
times more land intensive in terms of
global hectares (even more so for actual
hectares).
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Land to
Sequester C
We use 27%,
But are only
5% of
population
U.S. Energy
World Energy EJJGpeopleperson
GJ5.357105.3575.655 18
=×=×
EJGpeopleperson
GJ5.973.0325 =×
∴
%5 5.6
3.0 %;27
5.357
5.97⇒⇒
ha/person 6 0.3Gpeople
1.8Gha
hectares) (global 1.8Gha0.276.6Gha
=
=×
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Footprint for An Auto
Sequestion Area
Octane
C8H18
Assume
yrgalgalmile
yrmile/480
/25
/000,12=
368.0cm
g
gasoline
=ρ )(235.168.03785480
3785785.31
3
3
3
metrictcm
g
gal
cmgal
cmlitresgal
=××
==
gasoline
carbon842.0
114
96
18128
128==
+×
×
ture)infrastrucnor mfg. includenot does(
93.03.165.01.1/95.0
842.0235.1hahatc
hatc
t=××⇒
×
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Energy used to heat home using
800 gallons of fuel oil/year
hectares global 1.23.16.1
95.0
65.3.2
3.2856.0
9.037858003
3
haha
ha
tC
tC
tCgOIL
gC
cm
g
gal
cmgal
=×⇒×
=×××
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Who gets wh at
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Natomo Family in Mali, March 27, 2003
MATERIAL WORLD, Peter Menzel
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The Skeen Family, Pearland TX,
August 1993
MATERIAL WORLD, Peter Menzel
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Crit ic ism of the EF
• Bjorn Lomborg / The Economist
• Journal of Ecological Economics
• E. O. Wilson
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Re ad ing Assig nme nts
• Homework (reviewed 2/14)• 2/14 Sustainability?
•
• a) Diamond, J., “Easter Island’s End” Discover Magazine, 1995. (6 pages)
• http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/24/042.html
•
• b) Broswimmer, “The Chaco Anasazi….,” p 45-48 (handout)
•
• c) Hardin, G., “Tragedy of the Commons,” Science, 162, 1968, p 1243-1248.
• http://dieoff.org/
•
• d) Wilson, E.O., “The Bottleneck” pp 22 – 41, Ch 2 in The Future of Life, 2001 (handout)
•
• e) Lomborg, B., “Biodiversity” in The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World, 2001, p 251-257. (handout)