macroeconomics – econ202awebfac/gourinchas/e202a_f14/handout_202a_8_2... · unit labor costs,...

Macroeconomics – Econ202A

Pierre-Olivier GourinchasUC Berkeley

Berkeley, Fall 2014December 02, 2014

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Current Account Balances (percent of Eurozone GDP).

!3%$

!2%$

!1%$

0%$

1%$

2%$

3%$

1993$$$ 1995$$$ 1997$$$ 1999$$$ 2001$$$ 2003$$$ 2005$$$ 2007$$$ 2009$$$ 2011$$$ 2013$$$

%"of"E

urozon

e"Outpu

t"

Germany$ Ireland$ Greece$ Portugal$ Italy$ Spain$

France$ Netherlands$ Others$ forecast$ Euro$

Source: OECD Economic Outlook

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Unit Labor Costs, relative to Germany (2000=100).

150

130

140

120

110

90

100

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Grece Spain Italy Portugal Ireland France EZ EU

Nominal labor expenditures/real GDP. Source: AMECO

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Net Balance with the Eurosystem / Target (bn e).750

Net�Balance�with�the�Eurosystem�/�Target�[bn�€]�

450

550

650Finland FranceGermany� GreeceIreland ItalyNetherlands Port gal

250

350

450 Netherlands PortugalSpain Luxembourg

50

150

250

Ͳ150

Ͳ50

Ͳ450

Ͳ350

Ͳ250

Institute�of�Empirical�Economic�Research�Ͳ Universität�OsnabrückSource: Osnabruck University and NCB

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Spreads over Germany (10-year).

40

45

30

35

25

30

15

20

5

10

Ͳ5

0

5

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Spain France Greece Ireland Italy Portugal

Source: Global Financial Database

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Public Deficits and Primary Deficits, % of GDP

Public Deficit2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1999-07

Grece -6.78 -9.93 -15.56 -10.50 -9.16 -7.27 -8.39 -5.33Spain 1.92 -4.49 -11.18 -9.34 -8.52 -6.45 -6.35 0.23Italy -1.59 -2.67 -5.37 -4.48 -3.82 -1.91 -0.99 -2.88Portugal -3.21 -3.70 -10.17 -9.84 -4.24 -4.68 -3.08 -4.09Ireland 0.06 -7.34 -14.02 -31.17 -13.03 -8.30 -7.53 1.60

France -2.75 -3.34 -7.56 -7.09 -5.18 -4.53 -4.21 -2.67Germany 0.23 -0.06 -3.21 -4.28 -0.98 -0.85 -0.74 -2.23EZ -0.69 -2.13 -6.38 -6.23 -4.10 -3.20 -2.89 -1.89EU -0.90 -2.42 -6.88 -6.55 -4.47 -3.81 -3.35 -1.74

Primary Deficit2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1999-07

Grece -1.98 -4.81 -10.42 -4.69 -2.17 -0.98 -1.97 0.35Spain 3.53 -2.89 -9.41 -7.43 -6.11 -3.26 -3.06 2.67Italy 3.36 2.45 -0.78 -0.02 0.99 3.39 4.47 2.56Portugal -0.21 -0.61 -7.32 -6.96 -0.37 0.15 1.86 -1.27Ireland 1.08 -5.96 -11.98 -28.03 -9.67 -4.21 -1.97 3.01

France -0.05 -0.41 -5.14 -4.67 -2.58 -1.91 -1.56 0.15Germany 3.05 2.71 -0.52 -1.78 1.65 1.68 1.61 0.75EZ 2.29 0.92 -3.52 -3.42 -1.06 0.00 0.34 1.51EU 1.84 0.36 -4.24 -3.83 -1.54 -0.73 -0.24 1.39

Source: AMECO, May 2012.

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