macroeconomics – econ202awebfac/gourinchas/e202a_f14/handout_202a_8_2... · unit labor costs,...
TRANSCRIPT
Macroeconomics – Econ202A
Pierre-Olivier GourinchasUC Berkeley
Berkeley, Fall 2014December 02, 2014
1 / 6
Current Account Balances (percent of Eurozone GDP).
!3%$
!2%$
!1%$
0%$
1%$
2%$
3%$
1993$$$ 1995$$$ 1997$$$ 1999$$$ 2001$$$ 2003$$$ 2005$$$ 2007$$$ 2009$$$ 2011$$$ 2013$$$
%"of"E
urozon
e"Outpu
t"
Germany$ Ireland$ Greece$ Portugal$ Italy$ Spain$
France$ Netherlands$ Others$ forecast$ Euro$
Source: OECD Economic Outlook
2 / 6
Unit Labor Costs, relative to Germany (2000=100).
150
130
140
120
110
90
100
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Grece Spain Italy Portugal Ireland France EZ EU
Nominal labor expenditures/real GDP. Source: AMECO
3/6
Net Balance with the Eurosystem / Target (bn e).750
Net�Balance�with�the�Eurosystem�/�Target�[bn�€]�
450
550
650Finland FranceGermany� GreeceIreland ItalyNetherlands Port gal
250
350
450 Netherlands PortugalSpain Luxembourg
50
150
250
Ͳ150
Ͳ50
Ͳ450
Ͳ350
Ͳ250
Institute�of�Empirical�Economic�Research�Ͳ Universität�OsnabrückSource: Osnabruck University and NCB
4/ 6
Spreads over Germany (10-year).
40
45
30
35
25
30
15
20
5
10
Ͳ5
0
5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Spain France Greece Ireland Italy Portugal
Source: Global Financial Database
5 / 6
Public Deficits and Primary Deficits, % of GDP
Public Deficit2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1999-07
Grece -6.78 -9.93 -15.56 -10.50 -9.16 -7.27 -8.39 -5.33Spain 1.92 -4.49 -11.18 -9.34 -8.52 -6.45 -6.35 0.23Italy -1.59 -2.67 -5.37 -4.48 -3.82 -1.91 -0.99 -2.88Portugal -3.21 -3.70 -10.17 -9.84 -4.24 -4.68 -3.08 -4.09Ireland 0.06 -7.34 -14.02 -31.17 -13.03 -8.30 -7.53 1.60
France -2.75 -3.34 -7.56 -7.09 -5.18 -4.53 -4.21 -2.67Germany 0.23 -0.06 -3.21 -4.28 -0.98 -0.85 -0.74 -2.23EZ -0.69 -2.13 -6.38 -6.23 -4.10 -3.20 -2.89 -1.89EU -0.90 -2.42 -6.88 -6.55 -4.47 -3.81 -3.35 -1.74
Primary Deficit2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1999-07
Grece -1.98 -4.81 -10.42 -4.69 -2.17 -0.98 -1.97 0.35Spain 3.53 -2.89 -9.41 -7.43 -6.11 -3.26 -3.06 2.67Italy 3.36 2.45 -0.78 -0.02 0.99 3.39 4.47 2.56Portugal -0.21 -0.61 -7.32 -6.96 -0.37 0.15 1.86 -1.27Ireland 1.08 -5.96 -11.98 -28.03 -9.67 -4.21 -1.97 3.01
France -0.05 -0.41 -5.14 -4.67 -2.58 -1.91 -1.56 0.15Germany 3.05 2.71 -0.52 -1.78 1.65 1.68 1.61 0.75EZ 2.29 0.92 -3.52 -3.42 -1.06 0.00 0.34 1.51EU 1.84 0.36 -4.24 -3.83 -1.54 -0.73 -0.24 1.39
Source: AMECO, May 2012.
6 / 6