london compared: immigrants and politics in new york city john mollenkopf center for urban research...

London Compared: Immigrants and Politicsin New York City

John MollenkopfCenter for Urban Research

The Graduate Center, CUNY

London School of Economics

November 2012

Urban Democracy and the Immigrant ‘Other’

• New York and London’s populatons are becoming increasingly immigrant-origin

• Yet many immigrants lack citizenship and do not have voting rights; immigrant-origin voting age citizens are less politically mobilized

• This creates a “representation gap” between the size of an immigrant-origin group and their share of representatives (legislative and executive)

• This contradicts basic democratic norms – and creates numerous practical challenges for public services

• How is New York City closing this gap?

How Urban Politics Can ‘Bring Outsiders In’?

• Some socio-economic inclusion is a pre-requisite for political inclusion– But ‘bureaucratic incorporation’ takes place even for

undocumented or illegal immigrants

• The multi-step process of legal entry, citizenship acquisition, political identification, political mobilization takes time

• Both sides must help this to happen

The New York City Electorate• The “Funnel” of Political Participation:

– 8.2 million residents (38.5% foreign born [CPS 2012])– 5.1 million voting age citizens (32.1% foreign born [CPS 2012]– 2.5 million presidential votes cast in 2012 (30% foreign born & 18%

children of FB [CPS 2012])– 1.1 million votes in 2013 mayoral election – 692,000 Democratic Primary voters (Mayor 2013) (est. 30%FB)

• Most NYC voters are Democrats (68.9%), followed by ‘no party declared (16.9%) and Republicans (11.2%)

• In general elections, whites cast about 38% of vote, blacks 30% of vote, Latinos 21% of vote, and Asians 8%– White voters are 64.3% native stock, blacks voters 52.4% native stock,

Latinos 49% native stock, and Asians 4% native stock. – Overall, just under half of NYC general election voters are immigrants

or children of immigrants– Native stock whites made up only 25% of NYC voters in 2012

How they Lean

• Black groups most Democratic (correlation ~ .350)– African Americans (.346) and West Indians (.341) quite similar

• Latino groups also highly Democratic (.200)– Dominicans (.213) a bit more Democratic than Puerto Ricans

(.192)– Mexicans (.137) also trending Democratic– Colombians, Ecuadorans, Peruvians (.083) less Democatic

• Asian groups least Democratic (.050)– Bangladeshis most Democratic (.114), Pakistanis least (-.028)– Chinese (.050) more Democratic than Koreans (.029)

This is a vast change from 1990

• In 1990, native whites made up 46 percent of VAC, a figure that has been cut by at least a third

• In 1990, immigrants made up 18 percent of VAC, a figure that has increased by three-quarters.

• In 1990, the NYC Council had no first or second generation immigrant members. It gained two after the 1991 expansion and redistricting.

• By 2013, it had 4 Dominican, 4 West Indian, 2 Asian, and 1 Mexican-origin members (or 21.6% of 51 members), joining 15 native stock minority members

Immigrant Representation?• The “immigrant representation gap” between

immigrant-origin share of eligible electorate and share of council seats held has thus been cut from 100% in 1990 to 56% in 2013.

• Glass half empty or half full? At least it is progress

• Immigrants per se do not vote as solid block in Council or mayoral elections, but are broken down by race and national origin

• Thus political elites see them as ethnic groups, not and immigrant collectivity

Role in Mayoral Votes

• Success of “Koch Coalition” increasingly dependent on divisions among minority groups as white majority has slipped steadily

• Black versus Latino competition in 2001, 2005, 2009• Immigrant minorities slightly less Democratic than

native minorities, but still vote along similar lines• De Blasio overcame white-black division, black-Latino

division in 2013 Democratic primary (against a black opponent); benefitted from West Indian support and absence of Latino candidate

Immigrant / Minority Empowerment

• Greatest accent on class (inequality) issues in housing, paid sick leave, etc.

• Municipal ID cards on the legislative agenda – but details to work out

• Significant immigrant-origin appointees in de Blasio administration– Dominicans to DODC, Contracts, SBS, Community

Affairs, Haitian to Finance, West Indian to DCAS, Indians to HHS and Immigrant Affairs…

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