livelihoods adaptation to climate change: adaptive learning experiences of managing climatic...

Livelihoods Adaptation to Climate Change: Adaptive Learning Experiences of Managing Climatic

Extremes in Agriculture Sector

Atiq Kainan AhmedSenior Social Scientist, ADPC. Email: atiqka@adpc.net

Bangladesh Case

• Increasing frequency, intensity and variability of droughts, floods, tropical storms

• Sea level rise and salt water intrusion• Agriculture will be the most affected sector

Projected trends

Drought Prone Areas

One can, actually, visualize the situation …….

High evaporation rate and temperature

Dried up canals and water bodies

Affected stages of agricultural crops

High agricultural drought and dryness

Consequences/impacts

Agriculture/crops failure >> fallow land

Livestock loss

Deterioration of water quality/fisheries

Environmental degradation

Loss of livelihoods

Future Climate Risk:

Drought Spells

Maturity85-100

harvesting100-105

Ripening70-85

Flowering65-70

Panicle Initiation50-65

Active Tillering25-50

Establishment10-25

Transplanting0-10

4321

Drought intensityStageRice cropping Cycle(days)

Maturity85-100

harvesting100-105

Ripening70-85

Flowering65-70

Panicle Initiation50-65

Active Tillering25-50

Establishment10-25

Transplanting0-10

4321

Drought intensityStageRice cropping Cycle(days)

Livelihoods Adaptation Process

LACC objectives

• Develop a methodology to transform climate change impact modelling into livelihood adaptation practices

• Strengthen institutional structures to handle climate change adaptation

• Initiate and facilitate the field testing with farmers of livelihood adaptation strategies

Key strategy

Assessing current vulnerability

Assessing future climate risks

Designing adaptation strategy

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Testing adaptation options

Assessing current vulnerability

Local perceptions –1 On climate variability

Current climate is behaving differently from the past years. The past climate condition was better (says the elderly people) .

Seasonal cycle (locally called rhituchakra) has changed from the past. Where it used to be 6 distinct seasons in the past but now its almost 3 or 4 seasons observed distinctly in a year.

Climatic conditions have changed due to the God’s will (khodar ichay) and the cure – the rainfall is in the God’s hand (akasher pani allar haatey).

The average temperature in the area has changed. People feel that summer time heat increased and the winter has become shorter and in some winter days cold became severe.

People’s perceptions on drought are equated to:

a) dryness (locally known as shukna), b) consecutive non-rainy days (locally known as ana-bristi),

Drought is more frequent now than before.

Prevalence of pest and disease incidence increased and largely associated with HYV rice.

With adoption of HYV rice the production increased but due to climatic variability adverse impact of drought causes yield reduction.

Vegetable and fruits (Mango varieties) remain affected due to variations in rain, temperature and drought situations.

Local perceptions –2 On drought situation

Risks and vulnerabilities Both types of factors: climatic & non-climatic factors emerged.

Non-climaticClimatic

Profiling of livelihood groups

Petty traders/ businessmen

FishersWage

labourersSmall & marginal

farmers

Most vulnerable

groups

Large farmers

Large businessmen

‘Non’ or ‘least’ vulnerable

groups

Assets Locally defined indicators (i.e. access to these asset components)

Natural Cultivable land Water for livelihood activities (i.e. irrigation, fishing) Irrigation water retaining capacities (i.e. common ponds, kharies) Potable water Firewood etc.

Human Health centers/hospitals Literacy/education Educational institutions Status of personal/family health etc.

Financial Cash money Savings Readily sellable valuable assets (e.g. jewelries) Credit facilities Sellable livestock-poultry etc.

Social Access to Union Parishad (local government) decision making, Formal institutions that provide services (i.e. BMDA groups) Benefits from kinship/goshti, Local groups and political decisions etc.

Physical Occupational equipments (e.g. STW pumps) Livestock (buffalos, cows etc.) Orchards/homestead gardens Condition of the dwelling houses Water storage facilities (e.g. overhead tanks) etc.

Assets portfolio evaluated (local indicators used)

Innovative asset evaluation scoring system

developed

Small & marginal

farmers (32.43%)

Small and marginal farmers(Non-irrigated areas)

-1

1

3

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Small and marginal farmers(Irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

• Climatic factors: low rainfall, high evaporation rate, dryness, high temperature, and erraticity of the above

• Crop yield reduction • Electricity failure (for irrigation supply)• Unavailability of surface water storage facilities (e.g.

khari, ponds)• Unavailability of natural water bodies (e.g. canals,

rivers)• Pest infestation• Undulation of land• Unavailability of DTW• Insufficient irrigation supply systems (mostly tertiary

canals)• Unavailability of supplementary irrigation facilities• High price of agricultural inputs• Tenancy related complexities• Inability to cultivate 'boro' crop

Wage labourers

(41.10%)

• Climatic factors: high temperature/heat (summer months), cold (during winter months)

• Lack of healthcare facilities• Lack of cash/savings• Lack (ownership) of cultivable land • Food shortage• Unavailability of work during 'boro' season• Insufficient labour opportunities during 'aus‘ and ‘rabi’

season• Low female employment opportunities• Commuting problems• Seasonal migration(usually failed ones)• Livestock/poultry diseases/sufferings/loss• Poor wage rate• Tenancy, share and wage related complexities

Rural wage labours(Non-irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Rural wage labours(Irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Petty traders/businessmen

(6.81%)

Petty trader/businessmen(Non-irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Petty trader/businessmen(Irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

• Limited number of buyers in the market• Lack of cash/savings• Limited ownership of sufficient cultivable land• Credit complexities (high interest rate, access etc.)• Lack of non-farm employment opportunities• Low market price• Commuting problems

Fishers (fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours) 0.35%

Fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours(Non-irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours(Irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

• Climatic factors: low rainfall, high evaporation rate, high temperature

• Declining natural water bodies (rivers and canals)• Declining number of pond/kharies

• Declining natural fish species• Limited opportunities for fishing (fish markets, storage facilities

etc.)• Difficulties in getting lease for fishing of khas (public) water

bodies• Credit complexities (high interest rate, access etc.)

‘Least’ vulnerable groups(Large farmers and Large businessmen)

6.88% +

• Access to better lands

• Access to lands near better sources of water retaining facilities

• Having buffer from the T-Aman season

• Ability to arrange additional enhanced irrigation facilities

• Tenancy arrangements (i.e. ability to lease out lands)

• Better economic conditions allow them to go for alternative crops, timely agricultural actions and inputs including labour etc.

Large businessmen(Non-irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Large businessmen(Irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

• Severe and consecutive droughts• Local political influences/situation• Prolong electricity failure• Fall of external markets (e.g. failure in selling

products in other districts)• Transportation problems• High price of agricultural machineries and inputs in

external markets• Timely availability of agricultural inputs in the local

market

Comparative asset composition

Small and marginal farmers(Non-irrigated areas)

-1

1

3

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Rural wage labours(Non-irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Petty trader/businessmen(Non-irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours(Non-irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Large businessmen(Non-irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Small and marginal farmers(Irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Rural wage labours(Irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Petty trader/businessmen(Irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Fishermen/fish traders/fishing labours(Irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Large businessmen(Irrigated areas)

0

1

2

3

4

5Natural

Human

FinancialSocial

Physical

Non-irrigated areas

Irrigated areas

Vulnerability context

Adaptation options

De

velop via

ble

Ada

pta

tion op

tion

s

Collate indigenous, local and research based adaptation options

Synthesize into potentially suitable adaptation options for location

specific conditions

Scientific validation of adaptation options

Local prioritization/selection of adaptation options for field testing

Designing adaptation

options

Adaptive responses-1(Traditional measures)Pond/khari

ayel (bundh) raising

Tillage, mulching(shedding)

Only the adjacent lands got benefited from kharies while the farthest lands remain uncultivated due to lack of water.

Adaptive responses-2

(State supported modern practices)

DTW

Tank water supply

Use of paid irrigation

Adaptive responses-3

(Alternative/selective)

Mango

Livestock and birds (that consume less water)

Home gardeningDual purpose (optimal use of water & plant)

Adaptive responses-4

(Domestic practices)

Load sharing

Use of traditional means and sources

Agricultural adaptive practices • Pond (and khari) water irrigation

• DTW/STW water irrigation• Beel, canals and rivers water irrigation• Tillage• Mulching• Use of green manure/pesticide use• Alternate crops (more tolerant ones)• Selection of rice varieties• Alternative livestock/birds• Short duration fish culture (short term)

• Erosion of (use) savings• Credit (NGO-GO sources)• Loan (relatives or informal sources)• Out migration (cyclical)• Multiple livelihood activities• Change of occupations• Mortgage properties

Socio-economic adaptations

Agricultural adaptations

1. Agronomic management

2. Water harvesting and exploitation

3. Water Use efficiency

Typology of agricultural adaptations

4. Crop intensification and diversification

5. Alternate enterprises

6. Post harvest practices

Complementary adaptation measures

•Physical adaptive measures

•Livelihood enhancement

• Income diversification

•Strengthening institutional structures

• Policy formulation

•Financial mechanisms for risk transfer

•Awareness creation & advocacy

Field demonstration of

prioritized adaptation

options

Institutions (GoB)

Institutions (NGOs and CBOs)

Strengthening Institutional set-up

DMB

District DMC

Upazilla DMC

Union DMCLMO

DAE - DRM Core Group

District Deputy Director

Upazilla Ag. Officer

Sub-Assistant Ag. Officer

Community/Farmer Groups/Associations/Local Facilitation Team

NTIWGDMB, DAE, BMD,

DRR, LI, DoE

UTIWGNational expert advisory group

Community mobilizations

• Community awareness raising

• Farmers groups mobilization

• Planning, action and monitoring demonstrations on farmers fields

• Capacity building and training sessions

• Community Risk reduction planning

Gradual systematic up-scalling of livelihoods

adaptations

Assessing current vulnerability

Assessing future climate risks

Designing adaptation strategy

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Testing adaptation options

Incorporation of End-to-end climate information generation and application

systemProviding climate outlook

Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook

Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios

Communication of response options/ feedback

Community level forecast information sharing

End-to-end early warning

facilitation to the community

End-to-end early warning

facilitation to the community

Sharing with the agency/ institutional representatives – those who work for the

community

Sharing with the agency/ institutional representatives – those who work for the

community

Interpretation and action

ForecastingAgency notification

Community notification

Response operations

Adaptive Learning and Capacity Buildingto interpret probabilistic forecast, prepare impact outlooks,

communicate impact outlooks with response options to enhance preparedness

Capacity Building

i) Climate risk and impact analysis• climate risk analysis methods• climate change impacts• viable adaptation options

ii) Climate forecast applications for drought mitigation

• introduction to forecast products• Application of weather and climate forecast

products

Some key lessons• Development, DRR and CCA are integrated issues at the local

level

• Moving towards adaptation requires a livelihoods perspective

• An “adaptive learning environment” is essential for building adaptive capacity at community level as well as institutional level.

• CFA/EWS are a good entry points for managing climatic extremes

• Value indigenous/local knowledge ; we need to build on those, and integrate it with external “know hows”

Coping range

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Hazards are increasingAdaptive capacity is not increasing

Coping range

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Need for up-scaling adaptive capacity

Adaptation

Climate shock

Time

Coping range

Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Adaptation

Climate shock

“Gradual increase “in adaptive capacity is needed

This is all about increasing the adaptive capacity of the people in all spheres

A “climate change adaptation” as well as a “development”

question

A “climate change adaptation” as well as a “development”

question

Setting and selecting these livelihood options are about stretching the limits of the local adaptive responses as well as the innovation, experiences, technologies appropriate to the livelihoods-culture and environment of the respective areas.

Multiple pathways to improve adaptive responses that would comprise of both short-term and long-term adaptive measures. Such multiple pathways could comprise of:

But, this is also about bringing newer ideas/ experiences/technologies and innovations appropriate to the livelihoods-culture and environment

Recommendations

Physical–structural

adaptations

Agricultural adjustment practices

Research and innovation for

adequate crops

Risk reduction measures

Enabling institutional

environment

Social and culturaladjustments

Shift and switch to alternative crop

Improvements in irrigation systems

Climate Forecast Information

Awareness And

Advocacy

The challenge would be to find out the right balance and combination

among these varied adaptation options specific to respective

“geo-physical settings” and “livelihoods systems”.

Coastal Areas

Thanks

Atiq Kainan AhmedSenior Social Scientist, ADPC. Email: atiqka@adpc.net